Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
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Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
You're for a cold reception as you move closer to California!!!
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP932008 08/02/08 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 31 34 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 31 34 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 16 15 16 12 15 16 13 18 20 24 31
SHEAR DIR 63 66 61 56 63 94 70 91 107 132 147 167 176
SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 24.2 22.1 21.2 20.2 19.5 19.0 18.3 17.6
POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 138 131 105 83 73 62 59 59 60 60
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 67 67 60 57 53 47 40 37 34 32
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 15 23 2 24 7 -1 -5 4 16 43 48
200 MB DIV 9 6 -1 -1 -16 10 -5 15 7 6 7 10 28
LAND (KM) 264 270 178 127 156 161 240 275 379 392 377 272 95
LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.8 33.4
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.7 111.6 113.7 115.8 117.6 119.1 119.9 120.3 120.0 119.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 6 7 8 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 4. 0. -6. -12. -18. -22. -27.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 12. 6. -2. -9. -15. -18. -23.
** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 08/02/08 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
no way Cali get hits directly. Probably a bunch of rain in there future
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Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
Mother natures fire department....maybe it can help completely put out the fires!
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Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
930
ABPZ20 KNHC 022329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
ABPZ20 KNHC 022329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
kurtpage wrote:Mother natures fire department....maybe it can help completely put out the fires!
If only it were September, when it might get a little baroclinic juice as it passed beyond 26º SST isotherm.
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- Matt-hurricanewatcher
- Category 5
- Posts: 11649
- Age: 38
- Joined: Fri Nov 26, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Portland,OR
- Contact:
Re: Near Baja California: 93E INVEST
If 91L had a LLC like this the nhc would jump through rings to put out a special discussion upgrading it.
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Re:
Yeah, the LBAR is mostly crap in my opinion b/c it's not so much based on the real synoptic situation.
Chacor wrote:12z track models (including climatology/persistence CLP5 and extrapolated movement XTRP):
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