Ex Invest 90L

[Blown Away]

Can you post the close up visible loop for this.

[stevetampa33614]

yerp I saw a hit of turning and probable development of an LLC. Which is why i posted. No evidence yet, Its just something I can see, or I think Im seeing.

Its also gaining latitude at a slight pace. Or the convection is flaring up N side.

[HURAKAN]

It may not have a LLC, but sure looks like it has a MLC.

[stevetampa33614]

It may not have a LLC, but sure looks like it has a MLC.

It will go down to the surface. Why wouldnt it. Conditions are pretty sweet down there.

[cycloneye]

It may not have a LLC, but sure looks like it has a MLC.

And is moving strait westward.It showed at the 06z analysis map as part of the ITCZ,but the TWO said its a Tropical Wave.

[stevetampa33614]

It may not have a LLC, but sure looks like it has a MLC.

And is moving strait westward.It showed at the 06z analysis map as part of the ITCZ,but the TWO said its a Tropical Wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

Its breaking off.

[Tampa_God]

And the Games begin! Who'll be named first, Invest 99L or Invest 90L?

[KWT]

There is certainly hints of a mid level circulation forming but its still early days. Still given its heading westward and it should stay in warm waters throughout. The only question marks will be the shear possibly?

[Mecklenburg]

And the Games begin! Who'll be named first, Invest 99L or Invest 90L?

i'm guessing... neither.... they will both go poof just like the rest of the waves... i will have to wait till august 10 before the atlantic becomes more favorable... but then again, i could be wrong.

[HURAKAN]

[kurtpage]

Agreed, It is headed directly West....I do not see that it has gained any latitude

[kurtpage]

And the Games begin! Who'll be named first, Invest 99L or Invest 90L?

i'm guessing... neither.... they will both go poof just like the rest of the waves... [quote]


What are using to come up with those assumptions? Any data go back it up?

[Emmett_Brown]

Shear looks favorable for the next 2 days in this part of the ocean



Looks like a good candidate to develop. Steering currents take it mostly west at least for the next 48 hours:

[KWT]

Yeah shear doesn't look all that much a problem for this system, the only issue may be that fairly large SAL outbreak to the NE of the system, I think it will probably start to mix with this system in 24-36hrs time if it carries on at its current speed.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing as we go into DMIN. Certainly very interesting.

[KWT]

Yep it certainly is interesting to watch as convection increases during Dmin, normally a sign of a system with plenty of energy.

[bob rulz]

I think this one will develop before 99L. I think as soon as that circulation makes it down to the lower levels then it will be declared.

[Weatherfreak000]

90L is looking damn good...i'm always quick tongued to call development so i'm gonna sit on it for another 12 hours.


The problem I foresee obviously is a clear lack of a surface circulation.

[Blown Away]

90L starting to come into the Central Atlantic visible loop, should have a floater before to long.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

90L is looking damn good...i'm always quick tongued to call development so i'm gonna sit on it for another 12 hours.


The problem I foresee obviously is a clear lack of a surface circulation.

Not sure if it is quite to surface yet, but unlike 99L I am pretty sure I see low cloud elements moving from West to East South of the convection, so this may technically be close to TD strength. WV shows it is in favorabe mid-upper level moisture, and suggest of some shear from the East, but not enough to kill it.


99L appears to have a rotation, but if you look closely, lower clouds South of center appear near staionary while they race from West to East North of the center. Like a car or bicycle tire. This has lower cloud elements that actually cross reference latitude lines.