Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Yankeegirl]

Well I did notice that they did bump the rain chances up to 50% here for Wednesday... So I also think they are on to something.... A little rain would be nice, its already 95 here and its only 11 in the morning!!!

((sings the Blind Melon song, No Rain....))

[KWT]

Well at the very least this should bring a little bit of rain to an area that didn't get a great deal from Dolly, still wouldn't rule out a weak system from this one though.

[HouTXmetro]

Will ULL to SW inhibit development?

On another note I predicted this would be to close to the coast to do anything. I wish we could get it push another 200 miles South.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked the databuoys off Alabama and Florida. No big pressure falls, no East winds, whatever circulation there is is aloft.

But models didn't predict surface low this early.

I was going to mention the same thing. I'm looking at a surface plot of the northern Gulf with a satellite overlay on my GARP workstation. Pretty much straight westerly winds all across the northern Gulf at about 10-15 kts. Pressures in the Gulf 1015-1016mb. This is just an upper-level feature for now. I'm hoping that we at least get some rain out of it. My bushes are dying.

And your part of the world/Houston metro got more rain than mine did from Dolly.

Sprinkler on 3 times a week action, and today will be first lawn mowing day in 2 weeks, and the lawn isn't jungle over-grown, by any means. Will water again after.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will ULL to SW inhibit development?

On another note I predicted this would be to close to the coast to do anything. I wish we could get it push another 200 miles South.

No, better a inverted trough with only a weak surface reflection raining on my lawn Tuesday than a 50 knot storm making landfall in Corpus Christi with Northern edge of heavy rain at I-10.

[Kludge]

12Z GFS- no surface circulation (but a suggestion of lower pressure in bend in isobars), but rain.

Sounds like nirvana to me. Bring it.

Changing name of team to "Conroe DeadLawns"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked the databuoys off Alabama and Florida. No big pressure falls, no East winds, whatever circulation there is is aloft.

But models didn't predict surface low this early.

I was going to mention the same thing. I'm looking at a surface plot of the northern Gulf with a satellite overlay on my GARP workstation. Pretty much straight westerly winds all across the northern Gulf at about 10-15 kts. Pressures in the Gulf 1015-1016mb. This is just an upper-level feature for now. I'm hoping that we at least get some rain out of it. My bushes are dying.

Not sure if dry weather is to blame, but while my orange tree in the backyard blossomed nicely, I seem to have one single orange growing this Summer on the entire tree.

Oh, and the lemon tree roots this was grafted on to have also sprouted. I lost lemon trees in the 2004 Christmas cold spell and Christmas snow miracle. The seedless satsuma orange tree laughed at that freeze.


I imagine another mid 20s morning might kill off the surface thorned lemon growing adjacent to the orange tree (really a ~6 foot high shrub, almost as wide as tall) but it'd take a pretty hard freeze to kill the roots.

Ah, North of I-10, and trying to grow semi-tropical plants in a mid-latitude climate! My Washingtonia Robusta help, they look tropical but seem undamaged after mid 20sF freezes. As a native of the Western deserts of California and Mexico, they are also rather drought tolerant.

[baygirl_1]

We did get a fair amount of rain here yesterday-- about a half an inch or so. It almost mucked up our back to school shopping! It was a good soaking type rain-- no thunder, really. It was quite different from our usual summer rain, as it wasn't delivered with the package deal of thunder, lightning, etc. Anyway, here's what the Mobile NWS office is saying about it in their forecast discussion:

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING BY ALL MODELS. THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE POSITION OF
THE LOW`S CENTER...ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND. THE 06Z
RUN OF THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST...ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THE LOW AND MOVE IT
WEST...SO WE ARE FORTUNATE TO BE ON THE SENDING END AND NOT ON THE
RECEIVING END. THE EFFECTS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BASICALLY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST...WE WILL SEE A BIT OF A DRY PERIOD
MID WEEK AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. STILL MAY SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS TUE/WED/THU...BUT NOTHING SPECTACULAR. OVERNIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE RAIN-FREE. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING IN NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AT LEAST
SCATTERED COVERAGE BACK INTO THE PICTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOUT TWO TO THREE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /22
MARINE...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA IS
BECOMING MORE EVIDENT. GFS HAS BEEN PREDICTING THIS BUT NAM AND
BRITS AND EURO MODELS TEND TO RUN IT OUT AHEAD TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT SEEMS THE NAM MAY BE OVER-FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE AS IT HEADS WEST BUT WE DID GO AHEAD AND USE THE NAM
WINDS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. WESTERLY FLOW IS CONSERVED EARLY ON
BUT THE BAROTROPIC DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS EARLIER SUNDAY THAN INDICATED ON PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP
SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FOOT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.

Here are links to 2 buoys to watch in the area where they cyclogenesis should be taking place:
Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040
Station 42039 - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
I hope it just brings needed rain to you good folks to our west in LA and TX-- not a biggie!

[CrazyC83]

Can they send Recon into a system that isn't even declared an Invest? This should be 91L soon regardless though...

The mere mention of this should bring the price of oil up a few bucks on Monday when trading resumes.

[HouTXmetro]

Can they send Recon into a system that isn't even declared an Invest? This should be 91L soon regardless though...

The mere mention of this should bring the price of oil up a few bucks on Monday when trading resumes.

Doubt it, people not going to evacuate the Rigs for a Thunderstorm

[TexWx]

of course there's a high parked right over college station.
is that supposed to move out?

[Bailey1777]

Is anyone seeing anything other than alot of thunderstorms sitting off the coast?

[KatDaddy]

This AFD was released a little earlier this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
955 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN FL.
BROAD SFC TROUGHING IS NOTED IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
MSAS SHOWING A WEAK 1013MB LOW S OF PENSACOLA BUT OBSERVATIONS
WINDS DON`T SHOW A CLOSED LOW YET.

[rockyman]

Rotation becoming more pronounced south of PCB:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

[tailgater]

Loose looking circulation, and lots of dry air to the north.

[RL3AO]

Looks like there might be something just SW of Apalachicola.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 021738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[RL3AO]

Should be 91L at anytime today.

[Bailey1777]

Looks like a home grown is trying to pinch off.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

shades of august 1983 again, hope not. hope its a weaker then alicia....