Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

[Ed Mahmoud]

shades of august 1983 again, hope not. hope its a weaker then alicia....

FWIW, Joe Bastardi wrote 1000 mb, like 1964's Abby, should be roughly the upper limit of what this becomes, and various NAM runs, which have been the extreme outlier, were about that.

But always a good idea to pay attention to local NWS and NHC forecasts, on the very remote chance Bastardi has underforecast this. (His error mode is usually the other way). They seem well aware of the possibility of development.

[Bailey1777]

Strange that the nhc sees this in the medium category for possible developement yet no invest assigned. different agencies I know but......

[lrak]

[RL3AO]

Strange that the nhc sees this in the medium category for possible developement yet no invest assigned. different agencies I know but......

The NHC is the one that tags invests. They will probably do it later this afternoon.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

shades of august 1983 again, hope not. hope its a weaker then alicia....

FWIW, Joe Bastardi wrote 1000 mb, like 1964's Abby, should be roughly the upper limit of what this becomes, and various NAM runs, which have been the extreme outlier, were about that.

But always a good idea to pay attention to local NWS and NHC forecasts, on the very remote chance Bastardi has underforecast this. (His error mode is usually the other way). They seem well aware of the possibility of development.

abby like storm would wonders for us in the rain department came up the san luis pass area.

[rockyman]

I notice that the circle (oval) is very large over the Gulf system. Perhaps the invest is delayed because the powers-that-be have to decide where to place the center?

[Bailey1777]

Can someone post a link to where the invest pop up when designated.

Thanks

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian, which usually also errs on the side of too extreme, also suggests a TD or TS making landfall between GLS and BPT.

UK Met doesn't seem to close a surface low, but shows a low to mid level reflection, with some rain where needed.



12Z NoGAPS shows barely a TD, with light winds, and heaviest rain a bit too far South.

Disclaimer: Amateur and unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K web site: Just what the doctor ordered. A weak surface trough, probably a tropical depression, worst case a moderate tropical storm, bringing needed rain. My main worry is system will track too far either North or South, and heaviest rain misses HOU metro. An Alicia, or even an Humberto seems very unlikely at this time, but keep tuned to local NWS and National Hurricane Center updates for latest official forecasts.

[HouTXmetro]

shades of august 1983 again, hope not. hope its a weaker then alicia....

FWIW, Joe Bastardi wrote 1000 mb, like 1964's Abby, should be roughly the upper limit of what this becomes, and various NAM runs, which have been the extreme outlier, were about that.

But always a good idea to pay attention to local NWS and NHC forecasts, on the very remote chance Bastardi has underforecast this. (His error mode is usually the other way). They seem well aware of the possibility of development.

abby like storm would wonders for us in the rain department came up the san luis pass area.

Is San Luis Pass on the TX/LA border?

[RL3AO]

Can someone post a link to where the invest pop up when designated.

Thanks

Directly from the source: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al912008.invest

Or you could use the NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

-70ºC cloud tops in thunderstorms, although displaced Southwest of where radar suggests a possible loose circulation center (at whatever level).

[southerngale]

Is San Luis Pass on the TX/LA border?

No, that's Sabine Pass.

[HouTXmetro]

Disclaimer: Amateur and unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K web site: Just what the doctor ordered. A weak surface trough, probably a tropical depression, worst case a moderate tropical storm, bringing needed rain. My main worry is system will track too far either North or South, and heaviest rain misses HOU metro. An Alicia, or even an Humberto seems very unlikely at this time, but keep tuned to local NWS and National Hurricane Center updates for latest official forecasts.

Don't you think the more Northern Solution is probably likely?

Thanks Southern Gale

[Ed Mahmoud]

San Luis Pass is the Southern end of Galveston Island. On holidays like Labor Day and 4th of July, quickest way away from Jamaica Beach is to drive to Pass, passing signs saying "This Direction is Not a Hurricane Evacuation Route", cross toll bridge, drive along next barrier island, cross bridge to Freeport, and get on Highway (288?) going to Houston.


Edit to add: See map above

[RL3AO]

-70ºC cloud tops in thunderstorms, although displaced Southwest of where radar suggests a possible loose circulation center (at whatever level).

The possible center on radar is at 700mb (10,000ft) or so.

[Stratosphere747]

Is San Luis Pass on the TX/LA border?

Figures your an Aggie...

Wait, I'm one to!

Hardy group down there, but not the place to be even with a small system....

[HouTXmetro]

Is San Luis Pass on the TX/LA border?

Figures your an Aggie...

Wait, I'm one to!

Hardy group down there, but not the place to be even with a small system....

Now wait a minute!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Disclaimer: Amateur and unofficial, and not endorsed by Storm2K web site: Just what the doctor ordered. A weak surface trough, probably a tropical depression, worst case a moderate tropical storm, bringing needed rain. My main worry is system will track too far either North or South, and heaviest rain misses HOU metro. An Alicia, or even an Humberto seems very unlikely at this time, but keep tuned to local NWS and National Hurricane Center updates for latest official forecasts.

Don't you think the more Northern Solution is probably likely?

Thanks Southern Gale

GFS consistently favors miss to North/East of HOU. Bastardi thinks it is an error due to model giving to much credit to inland 'heat low'. NoGaps and NAM would miss to the South, Canadian is almost perfect for rain. An open wave or poorly organized depression may be preferable to a more organized cyclone, in that organizing cyclones usually concentrate/contract rain when strengthening, before beginning to expand, and this looks unlikely to ever get to the "well organized and beginning to expand" phase.

Unofficial and amateur, of course. I hope WxMan57 returns with his general, and professional, ideas.

[HURAKAN]

[HouTXmetro]

Wondering if this is the real deal or will it fizzle again.