ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[HouTXmetro]

The first position issued on Alicia was 27.3n/ 90.5w. at 1009 milibars.

91L is not as far south but has much more Real Estate should He/She decides to get it's act together.

[RL3AO]

Well the last 24hrs track has shown this systemto have been moving in a SW direction but still perk Alicia was quite a bit further south when it started.

Alicia started at 27.3N. This is at 29.5N.

[TexWx]

Alicia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Alic ... _track.png

[gboudx]

We're planning a trip to Galveston next Wed-Fri. Oh boy.

[rockyman]

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Alicia

A mesoscale low formed off the Alabama and Mississippi coasts on August 14 with a weak frontal trough that had formed off New England. Pressures were high in the Gulf of Mexico, but the low strengthened into Tropical Depression Three on August 15. A ship located within 60 miles (97 km) of the depression reported a pressure of 1015.5 millibars, and the storm was upgraded to Tropical Storm Alicia late on August 15. With the high Gulf pressures, Alicia was unable to gain size, staying very small, but generated faster winds, and became a Category 1 hurricane on August 16. Steering currents were weak during Alicia's lifetime over water. A new frontal ridge had formed on August 17 which caused the storm to drift in a westerly direction.[1] Alicia continued west until the frontal ridge had subsided to the east.[4] Alicia turned to a more northerly direction on August 18, towards Port Arthur, Texas. During that time, the hurricane began to gain strength at about 1 mbar an hour, peaking at 963 mbar with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h) on the morning of the 18th. Just before landfall, Alicia exhibited a rare "double eye" feature for several hours.[5] The storm made landfall near Galveston, Texas as a Category 3 hurricane at about 1:45 a.m. CDT on Thursday, August 18.[1] Alicia weakened rapidly after landfall, losing tropical characteristics and accelerated to the northwest, finally losing its identity in the southeast tip of Nebraska on August 21.[1]

[SouthFloridawx]

Weak Steering currents right now... perhaps a Slow Southerly Motion for now.



250 - 850mb Steering flow last 24 hours:

[HouTXmetro]

Shoul 91L Drift SW it could very well cross the same area where Alicia started.

[Stormcenter]

It's pretty obvious this system is getting it's act together pretty quickly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[perk]

Well the last 24hrs track has shown this systemto have been moving in a SW direction but still perk Alicia was quite a bit further south when it started.

I would not argue that point.

[Bailey1777]

Any sign of a closed LLC yet?

[KatDaddy]

Very much shades of Alicia. The Houston-Galveston areas are going on the longest timespan between being directly affected by a major hurricane 25 years and counting and our luck will run out sooner than later I believe.
Not say this Invest will be the one but the N GOM is very warm. I did a check around the house and yard as well as check the screw insets for the panels.

Very important info for anyone that has storm panels with brick insets.

Make sure the insets are clear of mud from insects. It took me a full day to clean the insets. You dont want be dealing with that task when you putting up panels.

I would rather be prepared in case anythng surprising comes from the Invest. Personally I hoping for well needed rainfall.

[perk]

Very much shades of Alicia. The Houston-Galveston areas are going on the longest timespan between being directly affected by a major hurricane 25 years and counting and our luck will run out sooner than later I believe.
Not say this Invest will be the one but the N GOM is very warm. I did a check around the house and yard as well as check the screw insets for the panels.

Very important info for anyone that has storm panels with brick insets.

Make sure the insets are clear of mud from insects. It took me a full day to clean the insets. You dont want be dealing with that task when you putting up panels.

I would rather be prepared in case anythng surprising comes from the Invest. Personally I hoping for well needed rainfall.

Katdaddy i brought the old generator a couple of weeks ago to make sure it was running properly.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm completely stunned. I took a 36 hour break from checking out the tropics and log on to find THIS! Looks very impressive on visible satellite. Like all have said we could use the rain so hopefully this doesn't become much more.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

I believe there is adept and solid support for future tropical cyclogenesis from this system in the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Currently, a weak H5 shortwave trough is departing ENE of the system over the Southeast, while a longwave trough remains in place over the Great Lakes and Northeast. As the shortwave moves ENE, upper level divergence will be good over the system, while an upper low to the SE over Cuba will induce ideal ventilation and outflow. In the Pacific, as the Aleutian low and associated vorticity maximum deepens/intensifies at H5, an Omega block should amplify and build north over southern Alaska. At the same time, the downstream H5 longwave trough over western Canada will shift east, allowing an eastward expansion of the large ridge over the Southwestern United States. Consequently, the upper level wind vectors at 250-500 mb and the LL/ML steering currents will allow a slow SW drift of the system over the next 24-48+ hours.

Currently, as seen on GOES visible imagery, the system is encountering northerly shear on the eastern side of the UL ridge. This will inhibit development within the short term. As the system drifts further SW over the next few days, northerly shear should decrease as the ridge moves east and the wind vectors shift to the NE and ENE. With a weakening TUTT to the SE providing decent ventilation, intensification will likely take place at this point. Proximity to land won't be an issue; many TCs across the basin and GOM have developed and deepened very close to land, as evidenced by Jerry 1989, Danny 1997, Humberto 2007, and others. I definitely believe we will likely eventually witness TD (and TS) classification. Depending on inner core processes, it is possible that the system could approach strong TS or hurricane intensity. The most significant negative factor will likely be mid level dry air.

It is important to note that the upper level regime will not feature the classical H25-H3 anticyclonic flow and juxtaposition of an upper level jet that often results in TCs rapidly intensifying (i.e. Dean 2007, Emily 2005, Katrina 2005, etc.). It's not a "textbook" set-up for a TC strengthening to a major (Cat 3+) hurricane. This set-up was present during Dolly, and it will not occur during this system's life span. Based on this fact and the adjacent mid level dry air, I highly doubt this system will intensify beyond a high end TS or low end hurricane (at most). Although oceanic heat content, the depth of the 26 C isotherm, and SSTs are conducive, the upper air regime is far more important, and the pattern does not favor explosive intensification or even a Dolly-esque scenario. Overall, this system is not very reminescent of Alicia. However, I believe it is quite possible that we could see an intensifying strong TS or low end Category 1 like Jerry 1989 or Danny 1997. Those systems can be quite damaging, especially if they are strengthening, since stronger convection mixes higher winds more efficiently to the surface.

The bottom line is that residents in Texas should closely monitor this one. Remember that Category 1 winds are quite intense.

[HouTXmetro]

Outflow looks decent to the SE

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Any sign of a closed LLC yet?

There is no sign of a LLC much less a closed one.

[Weatherfreak000]

Three storms with decent chances to obtain TS Status...


Now..I wonder what all those kids who claimed the rest of the season was going to be boring and we wouldn't see a storm till Late August are thinking..

[HurricaneRobert]

A little north, but it does look like the system that formed Alicia.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/gibbs/image/GOE-5/IR/1983-08-14-00

[Stormcenter]

Three storms with decent chances to obtain TS Status...


Now..I wonder what all those kids who claimed the rest of the season was going to be boring and we wouldn't see a storm till Late August are thinking..

I'm not so sure about the other two.