ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[canetracker]

Per the NHC, they don't expect development anytime soon yet either.

000 ABNT20 KNHC 022352
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. . A RECONNTHIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

[fasterdisaster]

They kinda always say that. That's actually FAST for them.

[fasterdisaster]

Since people always end up asking in these type of situations, I just want to remind in advance that if both 90L and 91L become a depression at the same advisory then 90L will be Edouard and 91L will be Faye because 90L was an invest first. However if 90L becomes a depression AFTER 91L 91L will be Edouard just because it became a depression first.

[Derek Ortt]

developing systems in the GOM sometimes lose their convection at night and refire during the day.

Bret in 1999 was a classic example of this during its formative phase, as was Danny, 1997

[Chacor]

"Next couple of days" refers to within 48 hours. All tropical weather outlooks are for the next 48 hours.

[Chacor]

Since people always end up asking in these type of situations, I just want to remind in advance that if both 90L and 91L become a depression at the same advisory then 90L will be Edouard and 91L will be Faye because 90L was an invest first. However if 90L becomes a depression AFTER 91L 91L will be Edouard just because it became a depression first.

1. You mean TD-5 and TD-6. And do you have a source for this?
2. Huh? It's not impossible for a TD-6 to become Edouard and a TD-5 to become Faye.

[cycloneye]

[Duddy]

Nice re-fire.

[HURAKAN]

Just to clear things, it's Fay, not Faye.

Back to 91L.

[canetracker]

Looks like the convection is moving away from land. Maybe we will get a center formation in the more southward mass of convection?!

[Steve]

>>With any luck, we can get some rain out of it in southeast Texas Monday afternoon/evening and Tuesday.

Tuesday would be the earliest IMHO. With little to no movement at this point and lowest pressure somewhere south of Walton or Okaloosa County, and since it's less than an hour and a half until Sunday, it's gonna take some time to generate any rain in Texas (if ever). JMO of course.

>>...we now have 3 investments, wow.

LMAO. I hope they either are high growth or pay better than average dividends.

Steve

[Steve]

>>90L will be Edouard and 91L will be Fay because 90L

Last time Fay was making a b-line for Texas (2002, right?), the remants of Edouard got sucked into the feeder portion of the system. I'll never forget standing on the steps of our building smoking a cigarette and this insane wave of deluge hits. That was when RAMSIS or one of the other similar sites ran like 48+ hour sat loops and I was able to track it to energy from the storm that had been downgraded and entrained - without a shred of doubt.

Steve

[ROCK]

>>With any luck, we can get some rain out of it in southeast Texas Monday afternoon/evening and Tuesday.

Tuesday would be the earliest IMHO. With little to no movement at this point and lowest pressure somewhere south of Walton or Okaloosa County, and since it's less than an hour and a half until Sunday, it's gonna take some time to generate any rain in Texas (if ever). JMO of course.

>>...we now have 3 investments, wow.

LMAO. I hope they either are high growth or pay better than average dividends.

Steve

I am thinking more of a Wed event if that. Nice joke there Steve....

[cycloneye]

Convection is consolidating:

[rockyman]

Convection is consolidating:

I knew the jellyfish were out in force, but that one is HUGE!

[ROCK]

Convection is consolidating:

yes that is bothersome Luis.....need to see some surface obs showing falling pressures and see if it is indeed drilling down to the surface. Might add this area and the LC south of that are boiling hot. Very high heat content. LLC taps that we will have take off..IMO..

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Ed Mahmoud]

As seen on model thread, 0Z GFS doesn't show a closed isobar, but does have a nice 850 mb vort max ''making landfall' near TX/LA line, 0Z NAM is a tropical storm in general vicinity Matagorda Bay/Port Lavaca, both with beneficial rain.

[Derek Ortt]

don't be surprised if convection totally disappears overnight, only to refire tomorrow

[NDG]

GFS forecasts better UL environment by tomorrow night or Monday morning, that's when I expect this system to get better organized, by that time it should be S of SE LA.

[Ed Mahmoud]

OHC is much higher in the Caribbean than the Gulf.


I have always been of the opinion, maybe mistaken, that for weak systems, that don't cause a lot of severe wave action, or fast moving systems, that don't linger over the upwelling they have produced, OHC isn't as important as sea surface temperature, which, based on my petroleum engineering knowledge of equilibrium gas/liquid systems, would mean higher partial pressure of water vapor near surface.


Of course, for a lumbering or strong system, depth of the 26º isotherm and OHC are more important. A slow moving Cat 5 like Mitch would quickly starve itself in the Gulf.