ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

Dry air eatin' it up

You think we should just write it off then huh?
I personally don't think so.

[physicx07]

Speaking of looking for east winds, there is a fairly strong outflow boundary pushing towards the MS/AL coast. It may psyche us out that the system is developing when (probably) north winds begin in Mobile or Pascagoula because of it, if it makes it there.

Bed time.




It may poof overnight, but it may not. Pressures not screaming down, no East wind where I'd expect one to be, except Ram Powell offshore platform

[JonathanBelles]

I think LA needs to watch the squall line moving through MS for a little while until it pushes through or dissipates.

[Wx_Warrior]

"Dry air eatin' it up" - Doesn't say anything about writing it off. Just stating that dry air is clamping down.

Of course, it "bears" watching.

[Derek Ortt]

again, this is normal for developing Gulf systems. They struggle overnight

that said, the 0Z Canadian is encouraging. Backed off on development

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

Right now i like the NAM more southern development...

[Duddy]

again, this is normal for developing Gulf systems. They struggle overnight

that said, the 0Z Canadian is encouraging. Backed off on development

That's not encouraging! We are in an extreme drought and need a good system to help us catch up for the year in rainfall.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO THE CHANCES OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE DECREASING. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/030538.shtml

[Stormcenter]

I'll put my $$$ on the GFS solution right now.
By way new storms are refiring due south of the Al/FL state line.

[HouTXmetro]

I'll put my $$$ on the GFS solution right now.
By way new storms are refiring due south of the Al/FL state line.

Doesn't the GFS solution hug the coast?

[Stormcenter]

I'll put my $$$ on the GFS solution right now.
By way new storms are refiring due south of the Al/FL state line.

Doesn't the GFS solution hug the coast?

Yes it does.

[HouTXmetro]

I'll put my $$$ on the GFS solution right now.
By way new storms are refiring due south of the Al/FL state line.

Doesn't the GFS solution hug the coast?

Yes it does.

Ok, I'm thinking a more southern track.... Noticing the new convection, this is a fighter.

[southerngale]

again, this is normal for developing Gulf systems. They struggle overnight

that said, the 0Z Canadian is encouraging. Backed off on development

That's not encouraging! We are in an extreme drought and need a good system to help us catch up for the year in rainfall.

I don't know about ya'll, but I love being in tropical storms and Cat 1-2 canes! I'm totally -removed- this thing my way as a Cat 1!

You do know that -removed- it your way won't actually change where it's going, right?

Some thoughts are better kept inside.

[physicx07]

I don't see the new convection. Is it at the AL/FL line or way offshore? If AL/FL line maybe it's part of the outflow bdry pushing south.

[HouTXmetro]

I don't see the new convection. Is it at the AL/FL line or way offshore? If AL/FL line maybe it's part of the outflow bdry pushing south.

check the loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[Stormcenter]

I don't see the new convection. Is it at the AL/FL line or way offshore? If AL/FL line maybe it's part of the outflow bdry pushing south.

It's offshore in the same general area as the old complex of storms in the GOM.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

By the way that is a mean complex of storms headed south into LA.

[americanrebel]

ok everybody, for those that don't like my -removed- just skip this post. For everybody that likes reading what I always wishcast as the worse case scenario, here we go.

Everything that is stated below is of my own opinion, there is no scientific reasoning or evidence behind what I say. No organization backs what I say.

For Invest 91L, I think he will be a TD by 1PM (Central) Sunday, a TS by 11PM Sunday, and will ramp up to a min. Cat. 3 Hurricane before making landfall Thursday morning around the Sabine Pass area.

Now for those that want to rip me, go ahead, everyone that is regulars on here knows I wishcast the worse case scenario, and this is what I think is the worse case. Hopefully I am wrong and it will be just a TS at landfall, but with all the warm SST out there if it continues it slow movement, it could intensify slowly and get to a very large storm.

[HouTXmetro]

By the way that is a mean complex of storms headed south into LA.

I'm wondering if this will enhance or have an negative impact on 91L...Looks like they will interact.

[Duddy]

ok everybody, for those that don't like my -removed- just skip this post. For everybody that likes reading what I always wishcast as the worse case scenario, here we go.

Everything that is stated below is of my own opinion, there is no scientific reasoning or evidence behind what I say. No organization backs what I say.

For Invest 91L, I think he will be a TD by 1PM (Central) Sunday, a TS by 11PM Sunday, and will ramp up to a min. Cat. 3 Hurricane before making landfall Thursday morning around the Sabine Pass area.

Now for those that want to rip me, go ahead, everyone that is regulars on here knows I wishcast the worse case scenario, and this is what I think is the worse case. Hopefully I am wrong and it will be just a TS at landfall, but with all the warm SST out there if it continues it slow movement, it could intensify slowly and get to a very large storm.

To get that strong it would have to go further out to sea for awhile, and the only way it will get to Sabine Pass is if it hugs the coast. I would imagine Galveston.