ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[vaffie]

Curiously watching what's going on. It's been sort of a surprise development. Pressures definitely fell today. Vorticity increasing. Convection firing. Over hot water. Little shear. Could be interesting. Not getting excited about it yet, but if pressures continue to fall at this rate, we might have something serious on our hands in a couple days. Interesting post, Americanrebel, I think what you say is possible under the most ideal conditions, and perhaps that's what we'll see. Thursday does seem kind of late, but if it did turn out to be Thursday, then I think we could see a major hurricane. Even if it does become a major, I'm not so sure it would be a "large" storm--personally, I think it's not going to get that large unless like you say it didn't make landfall until Thursday. So I think it all really boils down to how much time it's got. Landfall on Tuesday vs. landfall on Thursday might make all the difference in the world between a tropical storm and a major hurricane. We'll see.

[HouTXmetro]

I"m calling Matagorda Bay to San Luis Pass as a Cat 1 with NW Heading at landfall...

Just my uneducated Guess

[americanrebel]

ok everybody, for those that don't like my -removed- just skip this post. For everybody that likes reading what I always wishcast as the worse case scenario, here we go.

Everything that is stated below is of my own opinion, there is no scientific reasoning or evidence behind what I say. No organization backs what I say.

For Invest 91L, I think he will be a TD by 1PM (Central) Sunday, a TS by 11PM Sunday, and will ramp up to a min. Cat. 3 Hurricane before making landfall Thursday morning around the Sabine Pass area.

Now for those that want to rip me, go ahead, everyone that is regulars on here knows I wishcast the worse case scenario, and this is what I think is the worse case. Hopefully I am wrong and it will be just a TS at landfall, but with all the warm SST out there if it continues it slow movement, it could intensify slowly and get to a very large storm.

To get that strong it would have to go further out to sea for awhile, and the only way it will get to Sabine Pass is if it hugs the coast. I would imagine Galveston.

This system could continue heading S or SW for a while and whenever it decides to move N, it could decide to move due N or slightly W of due N, and that would send it right into Sabine Pass. You got tor remember Galveston and Sabine Pass are not that far apart, and most storms before making landfall on the Northern part of the GoM makes a slight jog to the East, so it is not completely out of question. Not all storms need a lot of room to get up to speed, Some storms can only be a couple hundred miles around and be a major Hurricane, so never say never.

[HouTXmetro]

By the way that is a mean complex of storms headed south into LA.

I'm wondering if this will enhance or have an negative impact on 91L...Looks like they will interact.

Anyone care to comment?

[americanrebel]

By the way that is a mean complex of storms headed south into LA.

I'm wondering if this will enhance or have an negative impact on 91L...Looks like they will interact.

Anyone care to comment?

Once again an uneducational guess, I think this will actually enhance the system, by causing the system to just get plain mad.

[LaBreeze]

Does the mass of severe storms headed south into LA have any impact on the high pressure? Is it cutting into the high or what? Just wondering.

[Jack8631]

Once again an uneducational guess, I think this will actually enhance the system, by causing the system to just get plain mad.

I wasn't aware that tropical systems had a personality.

If this thing were to develope, it would upwell itself to death.

[americanrebel]

Once again an uneducational guess, I think this will actually enhance the system, by causing the system to just get plain mad.

I wasn't aware that tropical systems had a personality.

If this thing were to develope, it would upwell itself to death.

You don't think Mother Nature has a personality, alrighty then.

Upwelling is not a major problem in the GoM, I think myself, because the waters are not that deep and most the waters are warm enough even down deep.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe the convection racing towards the coast will provide a moisture shield for 91L and wrap it into it's circulation.

[Honeyko]

If the outflow boundary from the Alabama convection shoves off the coast, it'll enhance any developing surface low in the Gulf.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

03/0545 UTC 28.2N 86.7W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


I understand that this is not a useful tool when you have as many buoy's going against organizion. But I just thought I would post it.

[americanrebel]

Doesn't 1.5 mean TS or TD? I don't remember, can someone repost the T number and what they equal to.

[Smurfwicked]

Once again an uneducational guess, I think this will actually enhance the system, by causing the system to just get plain mad.

I wasn't aware that tropical systems had a personality.

If this thing were to develop, it would upwell itself to death.

I could be wrong and I am certainly not a professional but this thing is moving at very close to the same speed as Dolly when she intensified. I would think for it to develop strong enough to "upwell itself to death" it would have to develop to a very strong hurricane first.

This system still has close to 48 hours on water if not more, do people really forget this quick what Humberto did just last year in only 18 hours? Everything you say now is pure speculation to the actual possibilities of nature! JMO, not endorsed by Storm2k and your usual disclaimer yada yada...

Looks like whats going to enter GOM is going to be in front of (to the west) of 91L which I would think would enhance it more so than if got in behind it, that is if does even play a positive role to its development.

I'm waiting to see how 91L develops over the next 18 hours or so before trying guess which way this is heading, especially considering its still working its way further south.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Doesn't 1.5 mean TS or TD? I don't remember, can someone repost the T number and what they equal to.

About 25 knots or td. But that is up to the nhc!

[Steve]

>>Some thoughts are better kept inside.

I agree, but I appreciate the honesty. It seems like arguments and fights start (about that topic) when people try to hide what they're doing. JMO.

>>complex of storms...

Lot of lightning flashes in the distance from those. I don't know if that boundary would necessarily juice up 91L or not though. A lot of times when there are competing sources of energy - which clearly there are in the vicinity of 91L, things take a while to simplify. But you never know.

FWIW, if those storms hold together, looks like the bulk might be CENLA over toward East and Southeast Texas. Here's a loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Here's a radar look at the gulf out of Mobile:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

[Honeyko]

91L has to be ventilating upstairs pretty good now to maintain that convergence line without any external (i.e., frontal) assistance.....

Provided it maintains overnight, I'd say we'll see a definitive center by morning. If so, that would put the storm ahead of Alicia, development-wise.

[physicx07]

I was wondering that too. I don't ever remember seeing any journal articles, and it's pretty rare that an outflow interacts with a system that has not yet developed (or even developed for that matter).

I don't believe that the convection moving offshore will reach the storm in the same form that it is now. But I can't totally see why not, it's not like the water is suddenly 50F offshore to stabilize things. It's just that it doesn't look like a derecho, or something that would last that long. Basically I just think odds are, the huge convection wouldn't last long enough to get down there. Still...would be interesting to see and maybe it could.

I was wondering if the outflow boundary could make it down there. If the outflow did, I don't think it would 'spin up' the system, but may enhance convection which wouldn't hurt.

By the way that is a mean complex of storms headed south into LA.

I'm wondering if this will enhance or have an negative impact on 91L...Looks like they will interact.

Anyone care to comment?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This post is not endorsed by any Admin from storm2k. In fact the nhc, nws runs into storms to get away from reading this post; but it is still not offical.


I believe as the models seem to believe that this system should remain fairly weak. Maybe developing into a 50 knot system as it is making landfall in around 56-60 hours. Now this could change, but I don't believe we will have a hurricane out of this.

Now if the environment that is what ever that is holding it back goe's away this could become a whole new animal. I believe it is mid level dry air from off the land, with possibe other problems. I also believe that a landfall near the Bams instead of the GFS,GFDL's is more likelly. This system looks a like to me a little of Bertha 2002 but farther south. In maybe a few other systems.

So enjoy your rain texas!

[americanrebel]

91L has to be ventilating upstairs pretty good now to maintain that convergence line without any external (i.e., frontal) assistance.....

Provided it maintains overnight, I'd say we'll see a definitive center by morning. If so, that would put the storm ahead of Alicia, development-wise.

From looking at that radar alone, I would have to say the next advisory might have this as a TD even before the RECON goes out there today.