Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

Ewwww, a nearly naked swirl.

I'm making no predictions as to whether this cranks up or fades away. TPC has been saying it would encounter unfavorable upper conditions ...if there's anything there.

Thanks for keeping the pictures coming Hurakan, you are a machine.

[JonathanBelles]

Nah...99 just has a thong on right now...it has to get some clothes on sometime!

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS POORLY-ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SO THE CHANCES OF THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE DECREASING. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/030538.shtml

[Honeyko]

If it pukes, that's good news for 90L....

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday 0545 UTC



Today 0545 UTC



Good night!

[Honeyko]

Between those two pics, it looks like the low-level circulation envelope is beginning to elongate.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the convection forming close to the LLC, this system is way more organized then 91L. Lets see if the shear can lower so it can finally develop.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is decreasing as the TUTT is backing off.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

On one hand it needs to stay moving fast to stay ahead of the SAL surge, but on the other if it where to slow down the TUTT would move out of its way, so we would have shear under 10 knots within 12 hours.

I believe this could possibly make it to 55 west before crossing 20 north. Hell it has almost made a B-line since 25 west all the way across to where it is now. It would not blow me away if it made it to 60 west below 20. Hell if I was in Bermuda I would pay close attention to this system. Also the East coast maybe is not 100 percent out of line saying it maybe slightly possible.

We will see. The more west it makes it the less effect the SAL will have. So it can start slowly down near 55 west in catch a good chance at developing.

[Honeyko]

For a minute there, I thought it would get stretched out like taffy. But then....

BOOM! ....blowin' the tropopause....

(When this is in motion, it's apparent that, while there's westerly shear at perhaps the 350-300mb level, there's not at the 250mb level, or 25-30,000ft vs. higher. That blob is exhausting in all directions nicely.)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now that is the closes thing we got to a tropical cyclone currently within the Atlantic basin. It has a LLC with colder cloud tops now then the surface trough that is in the Gulf, also it is a million times better then the poofer in the eastern Atlatnic. So this thing still kicks backside and is doing a b-line across the Atlantic.

[Chacor]

Just so the above image isn't lost (dynamic images are a pain when reading back on threads or catching up on overnight chat):

[KWT]

Well this system does look interesting now but the convection has only just come back in the last few hours, we need to see it hold for at least another 12-24hrs without being blown away or going poof. However if it does hold then we may get something from this its just a wait and see I suppose.

Also Matt, Bermuda indeed does need to watch very closely.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030844
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST SUN AUG 3 2008


A NEW SURGE OF MOISTURE...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...ALONG 48 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
WINDS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATED THAT...BY THAT TIME...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...WITH ONE BULK OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND OTHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO THE FA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE REACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH THE BULK OF MOISTURE THIS TIME JUST ACROSS THE
FA...INCREASING AGAIN THE WINDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. GOOD SIGNALS THAT AUGUST IS HERE.

&&

[Gustywind]

03/0545 UTC 18.3N 48.4W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

03/0545 UTC 18.3N 48.4W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

Not sure why they've put this as too weak when its the best its looked at least convectivly for quite a long time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC now looks closed with strong westly flow around the base. I believe it's now a depression. JMO!