ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

The NRL track does not seem to show a west movement.

It only goes out for the next 24 hours. Beyond that time the track would be west or a little north of west.

[Sanibel]

Let it cook over those SST's a little longer. Could be some upper feature hooked that extension off the north side this morning. Cool breezes from south here this am.

[lrak]

at about 28.7n 87W the visible satellite loop gives the illusion of a spin for sure.

[ROCK]

Wonder if this little system will spike oil prices. Won't this move thru an area of gulf oil and gas rigs?

That won't matter. Oil companies aren't going to be evacuating the rigs. It'll just be an inconvenience for the guys working offshore.

Might not have a great chance to go TS but I would stick a fork in it yet Jim.........

[lrak]

Looks like offshore wind conditions with a nice swell for S. Tex

[wxman57]

Wonder if this little system will spike oil prices. Won't this move thru an area of gulf oil and gas rigs?

That won't matter. Oil companies aren't going to be evacuating the rigs. It'll just be an inconvenience for the guys working offshore.

Might not have a great chance to go TS but I would stick a fork in it yet Jim.........

That's not what I said, I said a weak TS won't make oil companies evacuate the platforms and stop production. They'd have to be evacuating today, and that's not happening with only a weak TS forecast. Oil prices won't spike with no loss of production offshore. I think it has a better-than-not chance of becoming a weak TS before landfall Tuesday. I just hope it goes inland a bit farther south than I think it might, or we'll get no rain in Houston.

[ROCK]

Curious and I forgot to ask this at your seminar. What if a system such as this developes more rapidly than expected and men are trapped offshore to ride it out. Do they actually ride it out?

thanks Jim....

[KWT]

Yeah this probably has got a fair chance of being like Erin from the looks of things unless it goes further south then expected which would give it even more time to possibly do something over the warm waters.

[Derek Ortt]

much less worried about this than I was yesterday

seems as if this is getting some good northerly shear, which has let the dry air to keep the convective activity in check

I would cancel the recon today... nothing to really recon

[hwego7]

What if a system such as this developes more rapidly than expected

The consensus is this will be no more than a weak TS. Everyone seems certain of this.

Artemus Ward once said, “It ain’t so much the things we don’t know that get us into trouble. It’s the things we know that just ain’t so."

[Ed Mahmoud]

much less worried about this than I was yesterday

seems as if this is getting some good northerly shear, which has let the dry air to keep the convective activity in check

I would cancel the recon today... nothing to really recon

It is a short flight, and next one isn't scheduled until tomorrow morning, if I were King of the World, I'd err on the side of caution.

[Portastorm]

I just hope it goes inland a bit farther south than I think it might, or we'll get no rain in Houston.

You and me both, 57! Those of us in the parched state capitol area (10-inches-of-rainfall deficit) are hoping for several days of showery weather later this week. I can also think of a bunch of high school football players (including my son) who would like to see their 2-a-days cooled down!!

[KatDaddy]

Coastal Flood Watch for SE LA

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF COASTAL
FLOODING LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SEAS AND PILE WATER UPON
EAST FACING SHORES OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA GENERALLY
EAST OF GRAND ISLE. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL BY LATER TONIGHT AND MAY INCREASE TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE MONDAY.

LAZ040-062-064-068>070-MSZ080-031800-
/O.NEW.KLIX.CF.A.0002.080804T0300Z-080805T0600Z/
ST. TAMMANY-ORLEANS-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-
451 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THE
BAY OF SAINT LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA INCLUDING
THE RIGOLETS AND THE LAKE BORGNE SHORES. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR LAKE MAUREPAS AT THIS TIME.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD BELOW THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TIDES
MAINLY ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. TIDES 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF
COASTAL AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS.
NAVIGATION LOCK OPERATIONS MAY BE AFFECTED DUE TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES IN THE WATCH AREA ARE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

[Derek Ortt]

doesn't matter if it is a short flight

no need to waste flight hours on a system that we can determine is not developing based upon obs

[cycloneye]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Curious and I forgot to ask this at your seminar. What if a system such as this developes more rapidly than expected and men are trapped offshore to ride it out. Do they actually ride it out?

thanks Jim....

Of course.

I worked on a platform rig in Main Pass 255 as a service hand for Baker Hughes, contracted to a turnkey driller ADTI. Therig crew/ADTI stayed for Hurricane Danny in 2007, by the time they figured it would be a hurricane, it was safer to stay. I was there about a month after Danny. No problem at rig, they said, but saltwater flooding at Venice heliport had destroyed many of the crewmen's cars.

Rigs and platforms are in no danger from tropical storm force conditions. Obviously, Ivan, Katrina and Rita did cause serious problems for rigs and platforms.

[lrak]

28.5n 87.5w I see a spin, and I know radar isn't the best but it matches up with whatever I'm seeing in the visible loops.



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Ed Mahmoud]

P'bably not at surface yet, but mid or low level clouds strongly suggest a circulation South of Pensacola as seen on this ADD visible loop.

Circulation near Northern edge of heavier storms, suggesting shear and/or dry air an issue as stated above by others.

[wxman57]

Curious and I forgot to ask this at your seminar. What if a system such as this developes more rapidly than expected and men are trapped offshore to ride it out. Do they actually ride it out?

thanks Jim....

Yes, that's all they can do - ride it out. Back during my 1st year as a meteorologist I was working as an on-site met on a rig owned by Shell that was located near the southern tip of South America just 20 miles east of the Straights of Magellan. It was a small jack-up rig in about 200 feet of water. The bottom of the platform was about 100 feet above the water. Legs were 400 feet long. We didn't get hurricanes down there, but we got some monster storms passing to our south. One passed to our south and as high pressure built in behind it my anemometer was pegged out at 90-100 kts for hours. I actually opened one of the doors and went outside for a look. I put my back to one of the railings. Facing into the wind, I could lift my legs off the deck and the wind pinned me to the railing. I decided that maybe this wasn't such a good idea so I went back inside. Though there was only a 20 mile fetch (distance the wind was blowing across the water), the waves were nearing 30 feet high according to my waverider buoy. But as the winds peaked, the waves dropped by 5 feet to 25 feet. I thought that was strange so I looked outside to check on the buoy. What I saw was the top 5 feet of the waves being blown off by the wind. That explained the wave drop.

The rig was swaying pretty good. I asked the "Toolpusher" (rig leader) what the rig was rated for and he said a 100-year storm. When I asked what that was, he said "about what we're getting now". The radio operator, Ian, slept in his survival suit as SSTs were about 40 degrees. But if the rig had tipped over there would have been no survivors in that cold water with no boats nearby an no Coast Guard.

So a little tropical storm won't be so bad.

[lrak]

Maybe the convection will blow south and allow us to see something