ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[hwego7]

DISTURBANCE FIVE (AL052008) 20080803 1800 UTC


30kts...TD

[Bailey1777]

Aside from wind speed, what direction is this headed and at what speed?

[americanrebel]

Right now I would go with a Tropical Storm Watch from Grand Isle to Galveston right now.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 283N, 880W, 30, 1009, TD,

[RL3AO]

NHC don't need no stinkin' VDM.

[KWT]

Yep upgraded to tropical Depression 5 now that we have a closed LLC, not really all that surprising it was upgraded.

[Aric Dunn]

DISTURBANCE FIVE (AL052008) 20080803 1800 UTC


30kts...TD

yep

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 032006.txt

[hwego7]

As I thought they would...NHC viewed the SFMR readings as unrepresentative of the storms true intensity given the lack of deep convection directly over the LLC.

The discussion will be interesting to read to see how they inform the public of their decision despite the recon data.

[lrak]

I always hear the NE side of a storm is the nasty side, yet Dolly's SW side seemed to produce the most rain and wind damage. Does the angle of approach affect that saying? NE side is the worst?

[Aric Dunn]

Shear has dropped of to near nothing

and
mid level shear is also decreasing

[KWT]

hwego7, the discussion will probably mention the higher SFMR and say that the estimate may be conservative IMO.

Doubt this will strengthen all that quickly but wouldn't take much for this to be a TS from where it is right now.

Aric, yep shear decreasing but main problem always has been that mid level dry air.

[vaffie]

AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 283N, 880W, 30, 1009, TD,

Wasn't that two hours ago, though--before the recon data? It's already 20:12Z, and that was as of 18Z.

[Aric Dunn]

I always hear the NE side of a storm is the nasty side, yet Dolly's SW side seemed to produce the most rain and wind damage. Does the angle of approach affect that saying? NE side is the worst?

actually yes its well normally the right front quadrant. but sometimes other quads will have higher winds do to the others being rain free.

[CrazyC83]

NRL now shows 05L.NONAME, so it should be a TD at 4 pm.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 05L.NONAME

[lrak]

I always hear the NE side of a storm is the nasty side, yet Dolly's SW side seemed to produce the most rain and wind damage. Does the angle of approach affect that saying? NE side is the worst?

actually yes its well normally the right front quadrant. but sometimes other quads will have higher winds do to the others being rain free.

So a Port Lavaca hit may mess with Port Aransas, Aransas Pass, Portland, and Corpus Christi perhaps?

[Aric Dunn]

Now we are starting to see a small increase in convection..

[Honeyko]

Buoy 42040 is now reporting 13.6kts E wind, 19.4k gusts. This is in the clear part of the circulation, and not near the center (the buoy is farther north than the tip of the Delta).

Dude...Im going to say this in the least rude way possible. There is no reason for a warning. If the center is 30-35kts, the bands will likely not be as strong as in the core...assuming there are actually bands there eventually, because right now, the north half of the system is totally bare.

Yeah, it's totally bare, and there's a buoy about a hundred miles from the apparent center with winds already gusting out of the east above 20mph. Gulf systems, ans TS windfields in general, can become extraordinarily broad relative to inner cores. Any convective cells shooting around the top this evening, if containing 30kt gusts above background velocity, will manifest as 45-50kts gusts.

As the other poster observed, when a developing system is this close to land, you can't wait until severe conditions are already occurring before issuing a warning. A warning, by definition, is supposed to precede events, not confirm them.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052008) 20080803 1800 UTC

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

[KWT]

Still got a very linear apperence I see on that IR imagery as well. Still I remember a few storms in the early seasons of 2000 that had a similar look and went on to become hurricanes.