ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

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chadtm80

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#661 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:00 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#662 Postby Recurve » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:00 pm

Prayers to my peeps in SW LA, I hope it brings no more than gentle rain on the areas victimized by Rita.

Sounds like you have to be prepared for at least a TS rain event. Forecast max winds 50k, gusts 60. Haven't seen rainfall potential. Could be under the dirty side in the am Tuesday with possibly onshore or along-shore winds. Cameron, Vermillion and Iberia parishes taking this seriously I hope.

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#663 Postby HurricaneRobert » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:02 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Wow :eek: This could posibly reach hurricane status before landfall. Looks like the Dallas area has a good shot at seeing some rain from Eduoard


Houston and even Galveston Island couldn't get much rain from Humberto. North Texas will miss the convection by far.

ETA my image didn't show up, but it showed Houston and Galveston Island with less than an inch (and almost next to nothing, in my experience).
Last edited by HurricaneRobert on Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#664 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:03 pm

NO matter what it looks like Rain is on the way!!!!
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#665 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:04 pm

still quite a bit of dry air... not too dry but enough to possibly keep it in check.. will see if that changes

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#666 Postby Cyclone1 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:04 pm

o_O

Just goes to show what happens when I go away for the weekend...
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#667 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:06 pm

Recon approaching center. Look at this HDOB.

210300 2807N 08801W 9798 00215 0043 +234 +210 005018 019 999 999 03
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#668 Postby vaffie » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:06 pm

Check out recon thread, plane flying back to the center, not even there yet and it's extrapolated a 1004.3 mb reading. Pressures are falling fairly fast.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#669 Postby MGC » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:07 pm

My thoughts of this morning were correct, that recon would find a TD this afternoon. I must admit that TD-5 is an ugly duckling at this time. TD-5 should slowly get its act together. On a side note, I just dropped my middle son off at the Gulfport airport as he is flying to Houston today for work. He will be there all week and I told him to enjoy the tropical weather while he is there.....MGC
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Derek Ortt

#670 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:08 pm

I don't like at all the trend I am seeing from recon
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Re:

#671 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:08 pm

KWT wrote:forecasted to get upto 50kts, seems pretty reasonable based on the models forecast, the SHIPS get it close to that strength as well, though the GFDL obviously gets this system a good deal higher then that and upto hurricane strength.



Is it just me or do these predictions almost always send up being lower than what
the wind speed actually is when it comes on shore. It seems like almost everytime the winds end up being a higher than what they were forecast.... I always wonder why that is.
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Honeyko

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Five - Gulf of Mexico

#672 Postby Honeyko » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:08 pm

What dry air? The closest "dry" air is in central Alabama, which has thunderstorms firing right in the middle of it.
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Re:

#673 Postby galvestontx13 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I don't like at all the trend I am seeing from recon


Mr ortt, care to explain. thanks
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hwego7

#674 Postby hwego7 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:10 pm

1007mb to 1004mb at least...that is quite rapid deepening in a very short period of time. 10 minutes ago the NHC said 1007mb.

A fresh deep burst of convection is firing directly over the LLC. It appears intensification is taking place.
Last edited by hwego7 on Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#675 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:11 pm

the recon is indicating a system undergoing RI
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#676 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:11 pm

Let see if we finally get a VDM.
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#677 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:12 pm

Pressure deepening, not a great sign for those in the path given upper conditions should improve as well, would suggest the core is organising with that sort of drop ready for the favorable conditions in about 18-24hrs time.

Very messy looking system but as I've said several times theyoften pack a surprising punch!
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Re:

#678 Postby pojo » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:12 pm

RL3AO wrote:Let see if we finally get a VDM.



if the aircraft starts ascending... you'll get a VDM, recco & possibly a drop
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#679 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:13 pm

Ugh.. As ugly as it seems this looks like the conditions are coming together quicker than expected and the core is pretty darn organized..not good. I am thinking hurricane watches/warnings may go up tonight yet.
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Honeyko

Re:

#680 Postby Honeyko » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:14 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the recon is indicating a system undergoing RI
The Navy has adjusted its fix southwestward, placing the center now under the northernmost CBs. Given that, there should be quick pressure falls. Still waiting for the tropopause blow, however. Probably around sundown, 2-3 hours from now.....
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