ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[cheezyWXguy]

whoa lets not get ahead of ourselves. Pressures fall, as they do when a low closes.


no rapid intensification is underway. The definetion of RI is like Dennis, Wilma, and Katrina.

no. This really is RI. This has dropped more than 4mb in 20 minutes. That's not normal. And besides, all the storms you just listed had to do with over a period of 24hours. It doesnt take 24 hours to declare RI. Explain Humberto. That was less than 24 hours and similar to this storm. Not saying that this is another Humberto, but it sure is possible.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no 50KT SFMR. The SFMR was turned off

[NDG]

Wow, 1002 mb, that's Eduard for sure.

[LSU2001]

whoa lets not get ahead of ourselves. Pressures fall, as they do when a low closes.


no rapid intensification is underway. The definetion of RI is like Dennis, Wilma, and Katrina.

Steve,
Derek did not say that RI was taking place on that the data trend from recon indicated a storm in RI.
Dennis, Wilma, Katrina, and Rita all showed RI when they were mature storms,however I suppose a depression could show Rapid intensification from a depression to a TS or minimal hurricane as well. I think (though i could be wrong) that rapid intensification is defined more by pressure drops and increase in winds rather that total windspeed such as in the above major canes.
jmho,
Tim

[SouthFloridawx]

I'd say we'll have a special advisory at 5 pm CDT with a 50 kt storm and a 1003mb pressure.

Probably going to have to change this whole thing... Already at 45 KTS now...

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 88.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DA

[KWT]

Yeah 54kts was the 10 second wind at flight level, still supports 45kts pretty readily though which is still way higher then the NHC were forecasting for this stage in the game and a real hint of rapid strengthening.

[Aric Dunn]

vortex came in 1002 mb
thats 5 Mb in an hour or so ..

[CrazyC83]

there is no 50KT SFMR. The SFMR was turned off

You're right, I misread it - still support 45 kt though. I'd also upgrade to a Hurricane Watch for the Tropical Storm Watch area.

[hwego7]

RI has started....look out Houston, TX! Expect an emergency Special advisory soon.

[Honeyko]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Grab 'em while the sun is still up. 100% quality, 800x600, zoom = high. Animate 20.

I smell the tropo-blow coming very soon now.....

[KWT]

Yep indeed SouthFloridawx going to have to add at least 15kts onto that forecast if it comes out at 45kts, if it comes in even higher then even more adjustment upwards will be needed.

Odds for a hurricane out of this have massivly shot up in the last hour...

[CrazyC83]

I'd say by 5 pm there will be a special advisory confirming Edouard. 45 kt/1002mb.

[WmE]

Yep 45kts 1002mbar seems to be reasonable according to recon. I'd say this is Eduardo now.

[cheezyWXguy]

I wonder what we will find tomorrow morning. Even without organized convection this has begun RI. When it finally achieves deep convection development I would seriously start worrying.

[MiamiensisWx]

Steve,
Derek did not say that RI was taking place on that the data trend from recon indicated a storm in RI.
Dennis, Wilma, Katrina, and Rita all showed RI when they were mature storms,however I suppose a depression could show Rapid intensification from a depression to a TS or minimal hurricane as well. I think (though i could be wrong) that rapid intensification is defined more by pressure drops and increase in winds rather that total windspeed such as in the above major canes.
jmho,
Tim

You're correct. Humberto 2007 certainly met the criteria for rapid intensification within ~24 hours.

...and conditions (thermodynamics and synoptics) are not as conducive as Alicia 1983 over Edouard.

*It is clearly a TS now

[KWT]

Agree about the Edouard part Crazy, that sounds about right, 45kts and 1002mbs pressure, pretty amazing strengthening for this stage in the game, looks like the negative factors aren't really playing any role now and the thing is this has another 36-48hrs over water.

[Wx_Warrior]

Enough with the LOOK OUTS, etc....

Be rational, Armageddon is not upon us. And why would people start worrying?

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep indeed SouthFloridawx going to have to add at least 15kts onto that forecast if it comes out at 45kts, if it comes in even higher then even more adjustment upwards will be needed.

Odds for a hurricane out of this have massivly shot up in the last hour...

Yesterday I was thinking Tropical Storm by tomorrow, but I guess I missed the mark on that one... lol

[cycloneye]

Hello Edouard



URNT12 KNHC 032121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052008
A. 03/21:04:10Z
B. 28 deg 06 min N
087 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 297 deg 7 nm
F. 048 deg 025 kt
G. 299 deg 007 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 22 C/ 280 m
J. 24 C/ 281 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/
O. 0.03 / NA nm
P. AF308 01BBA INVEST OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53KT SE QUAD 2107Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[CrazyC83]

Yep indeed SouthFloridawx going to have to add at least 15kts onto that forecast if it comes out at 45kts, if it comes in even higher then even more adjustment upwards will be needed.

Odds for a hurricane out of this have massivly shot up in the last hour...

Yesterday I was thinking Tropical Storm by tomorrow, but I guess I missed the mark on that one... lol

This calls for a Hurricane Watch from Intracoastal City to Matagorda IMO.