ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Aric Dunn]

the RI is based upon pressure falls.

Actually, the pressure between passes meets the definition of explosive intensification, which is defined as 3mb/hr

yeah and we actually fell 5mb

[KWT]

fact789, I've got to admit Iweren't really expecting to see recon find such high winds but the recon doesn't lie so thats the truth, amazing to see really!

[baygirl_1]

I've been reading the board and keeping an eye on our local radar (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MOB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes). There are some pretty intense storms to our N and NW. They're moving to the southwest. I noted these storms on the satellite image extending thru MS and LA (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes). So, is the depression/storm helping to fire these storms? Or is it a completely separate event? Could these storms eventually feed into the TD/TS?

[hwego7]

The 12z GFDL, which made this a hurricane, did not forecast 1002mb until another 24 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

I hate it when I am right, this could very easily go to Cat. 3 as it is already go through RI.

This is just my humble opinion.

And on what do you base this opinion? I'd like to know.

I know how crazy that sounds. But the sad thing is that I actually I agree with him that its possible. This storm JUST formed, now its probably 50mph, and is rapidly strengthening with a poor satellite appearance. Imagine what it could do when it acquires a better appearance...

[Aquawind]

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.


Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

[njweather]

the RI is based upon pressure falls.

Actually, the pressure between passes meets the definition of explosive intensification, which is defined as 3mb/hr

EI?

Say it ain't so... Hurricane-watching is fun and all, but not when the cone is centered on your city

Anyways, there are plenty of unrelated (?) warnings out right now for Severe Thunderstorms in and around Houston. I'm sure the constant coverage of these incidences will draw plenty of attention to what's soon to be Eduoard - which is a good thing...

[MiamiensisWx]

Enough with the LOOK OUTS, etc....

Be rational, Armageddon is not upon us. And why would people start worrying?

You may designate it as "worry", but it's simply common sense. When Dean and other TCs threatened the islands/Caribbean, concerns were rightfully aired and demonstrated. There are several reasons why Texans should be alert.

1. Vigorous LLC. Low level 850 mb vorticity is very decent, and as convection develops over the LLC, the high oceanic heat content below promotes large releases of latent heat. When combined with an unstable boundary layer, convection often intensifies over the center, which also increases the low level inflow. This may often support the development of a small inner core like Humberto 2007, Danny 1997, Claudette 2003, Katrina 2005 (south FL), etc. The highly vigorous LLC can support a strong increase of the maximum 1-min winds in these cases. If conditions are conducive, a period of quick intensification can potentially occur. Although northerly shear and dry air may be limiting factors here, current trends serve as enough evidence to be concerned and watch Edouard closely.
2. Decreasing dry air. Low level dewpoints are increasing and spreading NW, while the low level moisture within the boundary layer may be gradually increasing as the mid level dry air mixes out.
3. Decreasing UL shear. As the ridge moves east, northerly shear should diminish, though it will still be present.
4. Importance of trends. An intensifying TC mixes winds more efficiently to the surface than a weakening one. An intensifying TS/Cat 1 can bring intense winds more easily to the surface. These winds can produce extensive damages to many frail buildings and infrastructure, as seen with Humberto in southeast Texas, Jeanne in Puerto Rico, Claudette in Texas, and Katrina in SE Florida.

Personally, I still do not expect a system exceeding TS status, though I believe it may approach strong TS intensity. If organization occurs more rapidly, a marginal Cat 1 landfall is very possible.

PLEASE take this one seriously.

[NDG]

This is to remind us that mid and upper 80s deg SST and not too much windshear is enough for a tropical cyclone to explode in the GOM without the model support when dealing with small systems. Remember Humberto last year?

[WmE]

I hate it when I am right, this could very easily go to Cat. 3 as it is already go through RI.

This is just my humble opinion.

And on what do you base this opinion? I'd like to know.

I know how crazy that sounds. But the sad thing is that I actually I agree with him that its possible. This storm JUST formed, now its probably 50mph, and is rapidly strengthening with a poor satellite appearance. Imagine what it could do when it acquires a better appearance...

Yeah, I agree. It deepened much faster I thought it would. Nevertheless I don't see it pulling an Alicia, at least for now. If the current trend of explosive deepening continues, then there's the possibility it can reach major strength.

[TexWx]

"Say it ain't so... Hurricane-watching is fun and all, but not when the cone is centered on your city."
I agree, and with a newborn as well.


Looks like the GFS doesn't really feel the ridge is that strong.

Seems like it's "filling out" by looking at the visible loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Normandy]

Is the center the exposed swirl? because if thats the case its heading WNW and gonna hit LA soon....is that an eddy rotating around a more defined center?

[CrazyC83]

791 FKNT25 KNHC 032149 TCANT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008 TC ADVISORY DTG: 20080803/2200Z TCAC: KNHC TC: EDOUARD NR: 002 PSN: N2806 W08800 MOV: W 05KT C: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 040KT FCST PSN + 06 HR: 040300 N2809 W08852 FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT FCST PSN + 12 HR: 040900 N2815 W08955 FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT FCST PSN + 18 HR: 041500 N2821 W09058 FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 050KT FCST PSN + 24 HR: 042100 N2831 W09204 FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 055KT RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000... 0600...1200...AND 1800Z. NXT MSG: 20080804/0300Z

[Ptarmigan]

Hopefully it does not become a TS at most, but prepare for the worse. I would not be surprised if it is a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

Its official we have Edouard.....

[cheezyWXguy]

791 FKNT25 KNHC 032149 TCANT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008 2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008 TC ADVISORY DTG: 20080803/2200Z TCAC: KNHC TC: EDOUARD NR: 002 PSN: N2806 W08800 MOV: W 05KT C: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 040KT FCST PSN + 06 HR: 040300 N2809 W08852 FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 045KT FCST PSN + 12 HR: 040900 N2815 W08955 FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 045KT FCST PSN + 18 HR: 041500 N2821 W09058 FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 050KT FCST PSN + 24 HR: 042100 N2831 W09204 FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 055KT RMK THE FORECAST POSITION INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT IS INTERPOLATED FROM OFFICIAL FORECAST DATA VALID AT 0000... 0600...1200...AND 1800Z. NXT MSG: 20080804/0300Z

at least they upgraded it, but theyre going to have to redo that entire intensity forecast again.

[njweather]

Its official we have Edouard.....

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD

[HurricaneHunter914]

Is the visible supposed to look like that?

[Aric Dunn]

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL."

[MiamiensisWx]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/032149.shtml

Since a flight level wind of 52 kt was recorded, is 40 kt too low when you consider the reduction from that altitude and the intensifying thunderstorms?