ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Sanibel]

Heart shaped Eduoard. You could see this thing was forming from the surface spiral and cloud pattern today.

[RL3AO]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/032149.shtml

Since a flight level wind of 52 kt was recorded, is 40 kt too low when you consider the reduction from that altitude and the intensifying thunderstorms?

Plus you have SFMR of 54kt at the same time.

[Aric Dunn]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/032149.shtml

Since a flight level wind of 52 kt was recorded, is 40 kt too low when you consider the reduction from that altitude and the intensifying thunderstorms?

45 is right on the money

[KWT]

Yep the key portion is that Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength, I think officals in Texas will be preparing for a cat-1 hurricane to visit thier backyard...

IMO this should have been 45kts this advisory but it probably won't matter in 6hrs time anyway if it keeps strengthening like presently.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is the visible supposed to look like that?

No, but I hope thats the way theyre gonna be doing IR now...that looks a lot clearer than the other way

[crazycajuncane]

It seems as if things are changing by the hour. I read posts earlier that this was just a blob. Then it looked like a TD, but not really. Then is was a TD for a moment and then it became a Tropical Storm.... nice turn of events throughout the day!

I see watches and warnings now being posted for Southern Louisiana.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep the key portion is that Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength, I think officals in Texas will be preparing for a cat-1 hurricane to visit thier backyard...

here is the problem.. once the shear stops we may see it continue to strengthen more than that...

[jhamps10]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/032149.shtml

Since a flight level wind of 52 kt was recorded, is 40 kt too low when you consider the reduction from that altitude and the intensifying thunderstorms?

I believe that the NHC did not want to increase the system too quickly, but they will most likely have it at 45kts at 10. if not more....

[hiflyer]

NWS Houston is wide awake and just updated their discussion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT
FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. THE RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY BEGIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.

[TexWx]

what I don't like is...

Movement west at 6 mph.

[Rainband]

I agree it doesn't look good right now but we all know how things change.

[KWT]

Thats the really scary thing Aric, shear is easing off now and we've seen just how rapidly it has responded, you wouldn't bet against further rapid strengthening.

[hwego7]

Since a flight level wind of 52 kt was recorded, is 40 kt too low when you consider the reduction from that altitude and the intensifying thunderstorms?

VDM has max FL winds of 53kts..so NHC is using a 75% reduction rate...that seems unreasonable to me given how high the SFMR was reporting. I would put the reduction at 90%.

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008

WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE

[Steve]

Don't forget Texans, even though the upper gulf isn't super/extreme hot right now, you might well have that strengthening at landfall scenario again. I'm not making this my opinion at this time, but we will have to watch it especially tomorrow to see what the atmosphere is going to allow organizational wise. We shall see. Get your gas now though obviously and your water and batteries and whatever else you are short on. Looks to me like your drought is going to get busted.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

Agree TXWX, this slow movement will give it plenty O'Time over very warm SST's. I'm beggining to fear the worst out of this one.

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

I would guess they are waiting for model data to put out hurricane watches/warnings.. other than that.. at it's current rate of strengthening and considering the improving enviroment.. Come 11pm they have to consider it if any more of the models show hurricane at landfall..

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Edouard has developed, and I'm not liking this situation at all. Shear in the northern Gulf is relaxing and the storm is quickly responding. Given this, plus a slow 6-mph movement toward the west, and this is a making for a storm that has a good chance of being stronger than expected.

At this point, I expect Edouard to make landfall probably on Tuesday in the late afternoon or early evening hours over northeastern Texas. Given the current rate of intensification, if the shear continues to relax as forecast, I give this storm a very good chance at becoming an 85-mph hurricane before landfall.

And after Humberto last year, I think just about anything is possible when conditions are favorable or becoming more favorable.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

What I am worried is about the oil rigs that haved not been evacuated.I am sure that tommorow they will do it.