ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[vaffie]

[b]WTNT45 KNHC 032157
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.

Let's see how the GFDL changes now. It was progged to reach 990 earlier today, but that may very well change in the next run. If the GFDL and HWRF change a lot overnight now that they will have a much better handle on the structure and strength of the storm, the NHC may upgrade it's forecasts quite significantly.

[SouthFloridawx]

[CrazyC83]

What I am worried is about the oil rigs that haved not been evacuated.I am sure that tommorow they will do it.

Watch the price of oil rise as a result as well...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Upper levels are good for a Humberto like storm to form. This will be very small and has very favorable upper level winds for fast development. I would say a upper end cat1 on the texas coast. In fact I believe the upper levels with the fact that this is a small storm could be better overall then Dolly. We will see.

This is a unoffical forecast from someone that eats crow.

[Steve]

Props out again to Joe B for the season call of a lot of stuff forming in close this season. We're nowhere near the peak of the season and that prediction is obviously hitting. Nice call. If I can bash Accuwx when I don't like something, I'm also going to give them their credit if they do get something right (even if it's only Joe and not the company at large).

Steve

[KWT]

Looking better Hurakan though still not all that impressive given its a system that appears to be undergoing RI to some extent right now!

[MiamiensisWx]

LLC is clearly moving WSW, allowing maximum time over water.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Based on the steering, I believe the upper portion of the middle Texas coast (Freeport area) to Galveston may be within the "bullseye", though everyone from the entire middle Texas coast to far SW Louisiana should monitor Edouard.

Diurnal maximum may make the difference, as I originally expected.

[KWT]

Matt I certainly wouldn't rule out what you are thinking, early days but with it developing quite quickly a cat-1 hurricane is quite possible in this situation, esp if we continue to see these big drops in pressure in short time periods.

Also yep the Dmax is going to be so interesting to watch as it probably will help to only further deepen the convection this has.

[Andrew92]

Looking better Hurakan though still not all that impressive given its a system that appears to be undergoing RI to some extent right now!

True, it doesn't look THAT impressive right now, but it is still just forming as conditions gradually become more favorable. And I've seen countless storms look sicker than this, only to explode in the time frame of about two days or so.

I will be praying for Texas that this storm develops less than expected and that people prepare well for what Edouard has the potential to do.

-Andrew92

P.S. KWT, one more thing. I don't think a hurricane is just possible at this time. I think it's fairly likely that it becomes at least a minimal hurricane before landfall.

[Aquawind]

And of of this while it is clearly lopsided and lacking convection to the north of the system... Looking at the visable you can clearly see the area to the north is filling in with clouds as the pressure drops and the wrapping continues.

[Scorpion]

If its intensifying this quickly no reason it can't have a similar landfall strength to Dolly.

[masaji79]

Certainly seems like convection is building over the llc.

[vaffie]

Looking better Hurakan though still not all that impressive given its a system that appears to be undergoing RI to some extent right now!

Keep in mind that pressure falls precede increases in winds and satellite presentation. So the fact that its pressure is falling quickly means that a few hours from now it will look much better. In fact it already does look much better in just the last hour.

[Honeyko]

4. Importance of trends. An intensifying TC mixes winds more efficiently to the surface than a weakening one. An intensifying TS/Cat 1 can bring intense winds more easily to the surface. These winds can produce extensive damages to many frail buildings and infrastructure, as seen with Humberto in southeast Texas, Jeanne in Puerto Rico, Claudette in Texas, and Katrina in SE Florida.

This is an extremely important point -- the majority of wind damage in a storm will be done by freak peak gusts (which snap trees and tear off roofs), not maximum sustained winds; an intensifying storm can have gusts far in excess of MSW, while plateaued or declining systems generally don't. (I can't remember the name of the storm from a decade or two ago, but it was a quick developer that went ashore in the Carolinas as a cat-1, yet someplace along the beach recorded a gust to 138mph. Needless to say, that could wreck your house.....)

[hiflyer]

Think the Gulfstream needs to launch fairly quickly to get a decent upper air environment picture of this thing so that models can be tweaked....there are about 7 commercial jets right near it going offshore from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida that I am sure are getting some good upper air readings on wind direction and speed at FL350 and higher from their flight mgt computers.

[KWT]

Yep Andrew92 thats true and the fact that its deepening as rapidly as it seems to be doing so right now also suggests this should become stronger as well down the line and probably look better.

[Ptarmigan]

Since Edouard is a small storm, it can intensify a lot quicker. Humberto comes to mind and it was a small hurricane.

[RL3AO]

It still needs to get a better structure. It needs convection over the center and some banding before it can get near cane strength.

[jaxfladude]

Upper SE Texas/SW Louisiana may get too much of a punch in their need for drought relief Hope not just some badly needed rain fall amounts....no more than a strong TS....

[vaffie]

Recon on its way back to the center. 1009.4 mb and dropping fast. 36 flight level winds so far and rising fast.

221300 2822N 08741W 9846 00216 0094 +213 +200 150035 036 999 999 03
$$