ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[WmE]

Someone dig up old sat pics of Wilma.

Because this looks EXATCLY like Wilma did during it's RI.

And this is EI (Extreme Intensification!)



Guys, serious question, if it makes landfall around Galveston as a major, am I to stay?

Here's Wilma........

That was Wilma in the GOM. EI happened offshore the Yucatan peninsula in the Carribean.

[jordanmills]

Someone dig up old sat pics of Wilma.

Because this looks EXATCLY like Wilma did during it's RI.

And this is EI (Extreme Intensification!)



Guys, serious question, if it makes landfall around Galveston as a major, am I to stay?

In Bay City? You'll be fine. I wouldn't evacuate for anything less than a cat 3 unless I actually lived ON the water, or my home floods regularly. Don't buy the media hype.

But I have a 7 month old baby. No power and no water would be bad.

Oh that's different. Problem is, there's nowhere really covenient to go that's guaranteed to keep power. Fill a few 5 gal jugs with water and get a generator?

[vaffie]

anyway, it seems like recon didn't go through the center this time--it was to the north of the center. 52 knot flight level winds so far and a 1003.5 mb were the standout readings so far in this leg.

[Duddy]

This isn't Wilma. Wilma had perfect condidtions shear wise. Plus the waters of the Western Caribbean in 2005 compared to the waters of the Northern GOM in 2008 are not even close.

I wasn't saying it IS Wilma, I'm saying that sat presentation right now looks exactly like Wilma before her RI. I'm trying to go through my old pics to see if I can find it.

EDIT: Nevermind, I think I'm thinking of another storm. I can't remember which though. Anyway, it's looks alot better,

[KWT]

Yep Wilma is not a fair comprasion, the likes of Danny 97, Humberto 07 are probably more reasonable comprasions.

Recon found Flight level winds of 52kts so about the same as they were before, pressure estimated at 1003.5mbs.

[jordanmills]

Someone dig up old sat pics of Wilma.

Because this looks EXATCLY like Wilma did during it's RI.

And this is EI (Extreme Intensification!)



Guys, serious question, if it makes landfall around Galveston as a major, am I to stay?

In Bay City? You'll be fine. I wouldn't evacuate for anything less than a cat 3 unless I actually lived ON the water, or my home floods regularly. Don't buy the media hype.

Are you nuts, if you live within 10 miles of the coast, I would definitely evacuate, if you are told to do so.

The "mandatory evacuation orders" are nuts, dude. Pretty soon they're going to start evacuating people for severe thunderstorms.

[RL3AO]

Yes you can kinda see the resemblance.



But Wilma had more than 10x the TCHP than Edouard.

[Scorpion]

I really don't see the need for any evacuations for this storm, with the exception of maybe mobile home residents. It's way too small to produce any significant storm surge.

[MGC]

The pressure drop in Edouard this afternoon has my puzzled. I am having a difficult time believing the recon reports considering how poor Edouard looks on satellite. The next pass though the center should provide a better picture of Edouard. Based on 30 years of looking a satellite pictures of tropical cyclones, Edouard does not look like a TC undergoing RI. I can not recall a TC with a partially exposed circulation having such drastic drops in CP. I just checked the bouy reports ahead of Edouard's path and every bouy was reporting SST above 85 degrees. With shear relaxing and the moisture envelope surrounding Edouard improving I see no reason for Edouard not to intensify. Edouard could likely make landfall much stronger than currently forecast......MGC

[Normandy]

That picture of Wilma doesn't really look like Edouard right now, sorry. Im still not terrible impressed with this system, until it can build convection over its LLC there really is no way it could become a hurricane. Not saying it won't eventually do that, but to panic right now is a bit premature.

[KWT]

Got to be honest Wilma looked better then this does on that image, look at the wrap round it had into the center, all it needed was beefier convection and clearly it was going to go bang.

Anyway back to Edouard, I'd guess its probably only deepened a little in the last hour or so though recon didn't hit the center spot on this time, lowest pressure was just on the northern side of the deep convection.

[Just Joshing You]

Remember how ugly Dolly looked for the majority of her life, and 24 hours later...

[CrazyC83]

One thing that is possible is back at around 2:30 pm at the first center fix, it was not properly centered and the pressure may have been lower than 1007 - perhaps around 1004.

[Duddy]

Got to be honest Wilma looked better then this does on that image, look at the wrap round it had into the center, all it needed was beefier convection and clearly it was going to go bang.

Anyway back to Edouard, I'd guess its probably only deepened a little in the last hour or so though recon didn't hit the center spot on this time, lowest pressure was just on the northern side of the deep convection.

Yeah, please disregard that I'm insane.

I've seen this before just can't remember where/when. Oh well.

[KWT]

By the for those saying it cant be a hurricane with its presntation, a EPAC system this year became a hurricane with almost the exact same presentation as Edouard right now, someething GoM look cack because of the dry air on the northern side and thats why they are under-estimated by many, Humberto being a case in point really.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, since this TC's wind radii may be more narrow, I think evacuation may be necessary for locations mainly along the immediate coastline (i.e. <5 mi from the coast). Based on local topography in Texas, those areas are more susceptible to coastal flooding from this TC. If you reside further inland (i.e. more than 5 mi from the coast), evacuation may not be a pre-esquite, especially during a TC with a compact wind radii. Depending on the wind radii and your location relative to the inner core, I would stay in Bay City. However, you should be ready for heavy precip/rainfall, strong winds, and possible tornadoes (as always).

Finally, why are we even comparing this event to Wilma?

The "mandatory evacuation orders" are nuts, dude. Pretty soon they're going to start evacuating people for severe thunderstorms.

Do you have a family?

[stevetampa33614]

Here is Wilma undergoing Extreme Intensification


That storm was so damn strong. 215mph gusts and an eye 2 miles wide

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OV9hFh64jE

Anyway Edouard looks nothing like it. I cant for the life of me figure out how its getting stronger, the sat presentation isnt that impressive.

[jordanmills]

The "mandatory evacuation orders" are nuts, dude. Pretty soon they're going to start evacuating people for severe thunderstorms.

Do you have a family?

No, and you have a point. But I'd say that having a wife and a couple of kids over the age of two wouldn't change my thinking. Having a baby probably would.

[Mecklenburg]

will this strengthen to hurricane status?

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is Wilma undergoing Extreme Intensification


That storm was so damn strong. 215mph gusts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OV9hFh64jE

Can we stop talking about Wilma? It's irrelevant, in my view.

Thanks!