ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Dean4Storms]

New Orleans radar skimming the north side of it on long range
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Actually that mostly green return would be about the center, due south of Mobile.

[HURAKAN]

Just in case you may feel disappointed by Edouard's current loop-sided structure, this is Edouard in 2002 near its peak of 55 knots:

[stevetampa33614]

Atlantic is on Edouard, Pacific has alread had Genevieve.

Ya short lived. totally forgot about them.

Anyway. Sat presentation looks to be improving. Were also getting some nasty storms in tampa and I have no idea if this related.

[terrapintransit]

I only meant to compare it's sat presentation when it was a TD! And I said nevermind when I realized I was thinking about something else. I dropped the Wilma discussion forever ago.[/quote]
Apologies then. My bad.[/quote]

Sorry Duddy....That GOM animation I posted of Wilma was obviously when she was in a more advanced stage then what you were looking for to compare it to E! I'll take all the blame....aqua seafoam shame..

[tailgater]

A new burst
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

Will relative proximity to land as it parallels the coast...less than 100 miles from the LA coast (95 miles SE of Mouth of Mississippi)...hinder development?

Areas of Louisiana fall below 30 deg latitude...f the storm starts moving more WNW it could come even closer to the coast it is forecast to parallel.

Land interaction is often overrated, since the TC's convection and circulation will still be drawing latent heat from the GOM offshore. Humberto intensified up to landfall as an example. The 1928 hurricane was still a major hurricane after leaving Puerto Rico as well.

jinftl, its something I've thought about and it may limit the structure of this system somewhat and may keep it somewhat lop sided but I think it probably won't do much in the way of stopping it strengthening at least for a little while anyway

KWT, it will not have any effects...

[Dean4Storms]

You can see the center on long range radar from Mobile.......


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[KWT]

jinftl, its something I've thought about and it may limit the structure of this system somewhat and may keep it somewhat lop sided but I think it probably won't do much in the way of stopping it strengthening at least for a little while anyway

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,I always like your graphic of the Atlantic vs EPAC by means of the scoreboard between the two basins.How does it look now?

[HurricaneBelle]

Atlantic is on Edouard, Pacific has alread had Genevieve.

Ya short lived. totally forgot about them.

Anyway. Sat presentation looks to be improving. Were also getting some nasty storms in tampa and I have no idea if this related.

Not related at all, except in the most attenuated way. The storms are a a function of the fact that the trough that spawned Edouard finally moved away from Florida and allowed the axis of the high pressure ridge to move north of the Tampa Bay area, leading to the "normal" S/SE flow that gives us sea breeze-induced late afternoon thunderstorms during the summer.

I only put "normal" in quotes because most of this year (and it seems like much of the last several years as well), the weather pattern over Florida has been dominated by troughs suppressing the ridge to the south and causing westerly and SWly flow, leading to morning/early afternoon storms over the Florida W Coast and heavy convection over the interior of the state.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

jinftl, its something I've thought about and it may limit the structure of this system somewhat and may keep it somewhat lop sided but I think it probably won't do much in the way of stopping it strengthening at least for a little while anyway

KWT, it will not have any effects...

I'm not so sure it won't have any effect, there is clearly some mid-level dry air still coming off from the land and its preventing the northern side from really getting going along with the shear, I don't think its a big deal mind you, as I said not enough to stop strengthening, esp when the shear totally eases down.

[Dean4Storms]

The LLC is becoming exposed and appears to me to be moving more WNW now and not due west by any means.

Speed this up and you'll see.........


http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I don't see it getting any more exposed then it has been for the last few hours Dean4Storms to be honest, the LLC is still neatly tucked into the NW part of that deep convection and recon confirms that, looks to be due west to me right now as well.

[Derek Ortt]

thats not where recon fixed the center on its last pass... recon fixed the center (and at a very low level) inside of the deep convection

[RL3AO]

thats not where recon fixed the center on its last pass... recon fixed the center (and at a very low level) inside of the deep convection

Yeah. They dropped to 165m. Thats pretty insane.

[GeneratorPower]

It looks like it's doing much better on visible. Definately not becoming exposed.

[ronjon]

I think as always that NHC may be conservative on LF intensity. Shear looks low, less than 10 kts, the waters of this part of the GOM have been untouched by any activity. What might be a factor in RI though could be its rather small size. We all know that the smaller the storm the more likely to intensify rapidly (and weaken rapidly). I just mention this as a potential - the partially exposed center right now does not argue for any RI over the next 12-24 hrs.

[Dean4Storms]

thats not where recon fixed the center on its last pass... recon fixed the center (and at a very low level) inside of the deep convection

Your kiddin, if that is not the LLC we have two TC's out there brewin or the center has moved NW since Recon was in there?


It would not make sense that we are seeing a MLC tilted to the NW in a Northerly sheared enviro.