MiamiensisWx wrote:KWT, I was not referring to mid level dry air. I was alluding to the fact that several people believe land itself inhibits development.
Regardless, there are a few factors that make me more conservative on the prospects of Edouard attaining hurricane intensity. Convective outflow from the passing MCS to the NW and overland convection to the north has been inducing upper level shear over the system. This may be an issue, even as the TC eventually turns west and northerly shear on the east side of the H5 ridge decreases. Note the multiple Mesoscale Convective Systems rotating around the upper level ridge. This may slightly hinder Edouard and prevent the chances of a more extreme intensity solution from verifying, despite an increasingly ideal upper air regime.
Dean4Storms, the LLC is not moving WNW. You may be fooled by the angle of that satellite loop. The following visible loop is much better, and it clearly depicts a continuing WSW movement of the LLC, which is now partially covered by developing thunderstorms. Edouard is clearly gradually intensifying and organizing. Overall, tonight's diurnal maximum and the developing convection's relation to the LLC may play a big role in regards to the system's rate of intensification and future intensity.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
I think people should take the "MCS factors" into account and monitor tonight's trends before declaring a Cat 1 landfall as an undeniable fact.
Thanks for the excellent post
You can see on the loop you linked up the vigorous, albeit small, circulation maturing. If there is a analog in my mind it's Bret day two...and if that's the case then tonight's diurnal max will be very telling
