ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[dwg71]

I expect little stengthening as it brushes coast in SW LA.

Just my two cents.

[njweather]

Looks a mess... I'm seriously doubting this reaches Cat 1 let alone staying a TS.

You're right. The reduced shear, warm waters, and slow movement will choke this thing...

[ROCK]

I expect little stengthening as it brushes coast in SW LA.

Just my two cents.

Land interaction in past storms tend to tighten them up leading to intensification ala Humberto and Alicia.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looked like LLC was partially exposed, with convection near it having waned slightly, although very last IR frame shows a cell near there, while new storms have fired to the Southwest. I wonder whether the new burst may act to tug the LLC a little Southwest.




As Derek Ortt has noted elsewhere, GFS was a shade weak on ridge over US, and models based on GFS input such as GFDL and BAMS could be a tad too far North with the track.


Since GFDL and SHIPs guidance does suggest a minimal hurricane, NHC advisory mentioning possible hurricane watches/warnings later seems prudent.

NHC may bump forecast intensity slightly upward, if I had to guess. Even Joe Bastardi dropped his analog derived 1000 mb tropical storm like 1964's Abby as his worst case, and mentions Humberto like intensification in 8 pm EDT/7 pm CDT post.

I just went to the store and beat the rush. Still had most of my Rita supplies, but stocked up on water, milk, baby formula ( we have a 10 month old), and, of course, batteries, as 3 year old unused Rita batteries, (only lost power for 12 hours) may not be up to snuff anymore. I figure I beat tomorrow's rush. My car is topped off, and wife's minivan over 3/4 full.

Anyway, I suspect NHC and Houston-Galveston NWS office, which has always seemed one of the best in the country, will be on top of this situation, as will our pro-mets.

[KatDaddy]

All I can say is wow. The last hurricane we had on the Upper Texas Coast was Jerry and Chantal....both CAT 1.

[Category 5]

All I can say is wow. The last hurricane we had on the Upper Texas Coast was Jerry and Chantal....both CAT 1.

Humberto? Rita?

[lrak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

that new blob is right between these two points that have an E and W wind, is the big blob taking over?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pstl1

[srainhoutx]

All I can say is wow. The last hurricane we had on the Upper Texas Coast was Jerry and Chantal....both CAT 1.

Was on duty and in the eye for Jerry. Brought down the main power lines across the Houston Ship Channel near Barbours Cut.

[southerngale]

All I can say is wow. The last hurricane we had on the Upper Texas Coast was Jerry and Chantal....both CAT 1.

Humberto? Rita?

That's what I was about to say. I'm sure KatDaddy just meant the Houston area... last I checked, the Golden Triangle was still part of Texas.

Here I am thinking.... again???

[tallywx]

Looks a mess... I'm seriously doubting this reaches Cat 1 let alone staying a TS.

Look up Tropical Storm Barry of 2001. It lost all, and I mean, ALL convection the night before making landfall in the FL Panhandle. Couldn't even see it on IR imagery. By landfall the next day by early evening, it was rapidly approaching hurricane strength with an eyewall and everything. The decision to call it a 70 mph TS at landfall is still disputed based on some surface obs in the vicinity of landfall with SUSTAINED hurricane force winds. Anyway, Gulf systems can change on a dime, and I wouldn't even rule out a hurricane from this even if it disappeared off of IR imagery overnight tonight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Barry_(2001)

[jhamps10]

ah and transtar got the ball rolling on the fill up tanks order... just checked and the signs got turned on already... expect gas lines in the morning that's for sure in houston.

[jordanmills]

ah and transtar got the ball rolling on the fill up tanks order... just checked and the signs got turned on already... expect gas lines in the morning that's for sure in houston.

I r smrt. Filled everything up this morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Although the radar is looking quite high above the surface. using some extrapolation and center fix from earlier.. there is convection wrapping around the north side (minimal ) so little things such as this where some convection is finally wrapping around are important as a lot of times a piece of that will wrap all the way around and help assist further convection. we will have to wait and see though

[opera ghost]

How reliable do you think the path information is at this point? Obviously we're over a day out from landfall, but I haven't seen much deviation in the projected track. Is there a decent probability that it could slide right past Houston to the south or north?

Obviously being in the cone means to prepare (and we are) but is it a fairly stable cone?

[Bailey1777]

How long till recon goes back out?

[southerngale]

How long till recon goes back out?

11pm our time.

[HouTXmetro]

Is the current MSC suppose to sizzle? The last thing we need is for this MSC to saturate the ground tonight ahead of Eduardo MOnday/Tuesday

[marcus B]

I can't remember the last time Texas got back to back hurricanes.

[Bailey1777]

I would suspect having a pretty strong high North of the system is making the cone pretty "stable". Pretty much has to go W to WNW.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How reliable do you think the path information is at this point? Obviously we're over a day out from landfall, but I haven't seen much deviation in the projected track. Is there a decent probability that it could slide right past Houston to the south or north?

Obviously being in the cone means to prepare (and we are) but is it a fairly stable cone?

Questions like that best asked in this thread where pro-mets most likely to see it and answer least likely lost in clutter.