ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[cheezyWXguy]

if that was just a center fix the pressure is only 1006mb!!

I highly doubt it. The center maybe exposed, but I dont think it has weakened that much. I expect it to still be in the 1000-1003 mb range.

[Stormcenter]

if that was just a center fix the pressure is only 1006mb!!

wasn't it lower earlier? like 1002? that means the storm has weakend

Looking at the current radar and satellite presentation I would say that is believable. IMO

[RL3AO]

That wasn't the center. Wind shift wasn't drastic enough.

[jhamps10]

if that was just a center fix the pressure is only 1006mb!!

wasn't it lower earlier? like 1002? that means the storm has weakend

I don't think that was a center fix. and what is with the observation, notice the first few it's at 27.55-.59, but then the next observation is at 28.0, I don't think they would be able to jump nearly 1/2 degree in latitude in 30 seconds????

[cheezyWXguy]

if that was just a center fix the pressure is only 1006mb!!

wasn't it lower earlier? like 1002? that means the storm has weakend

Looking at the current radar and satellite presentation I would say that is believable. IMO

Really? This is the first time I have ever seen this storm with rain completely around its center. I cant see this being exposed for too much longer.

[RL3AO]

if that was just a center fix the pressure is only 1006mb!!

wasn't it lower earlier? like 1002? that means the storm has weakend

I don't think that was a center fix. and what is with the observation, notice the first few it's at 27.55-.59, but then the next observation is at 28.0, I don't think they would be able to jump nearly 1/2 degree in latitude in 30 seconds????

Observations are in minutes, not hundreths.

[Aric Dunn]

i plotted the last min ob and it looks like it was a center pass

[Stormcenter]

He is moving "exactly" as the NHC projected.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[HouTXmetro]

He's trying but the MSC to it's north looks to shear the convection back east

[fasterdisaster]

I really don't think that was the center, there was hardly any wind shift.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the data posted in the recon thread, there is no west wind. No cyclone if so. But I believe that the center has reformed inside of the convection. So we will find out.

[RL3AO]

I think they caught the northern edge of the center.

[jhamps10]

I really don't think that was the center, there was hardly any wind shift.

yeah, that may be an old center, or it's reforming, but we can't say that till we get a vdm and recon with more info.

[Stormcenter]

Based on the data posted in the recon thread, there is no west wind. No cyclone if so. But I believe that the center has reformed inside of the convection. So we will find out.

Then what is that little spinning thing on radar that looks like a "center"?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Stratosphere747]

Folks were fixated by the earlier pressure drop and assumed this was undergoing some type of RI cycle.

It's a slowly developing system with conditions becoming a bit more favorable.

[jhamps10]

1AM advisory:

...Edouard moving faster toward the west...has not strengthened
yet...


a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the mouth of the
Mississippi River westward to Cameron Louisiana. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.


A Hurricane Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
Louisiana to Port Oconnor Texas. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 100 am CDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 28.1 north...longitude 89.6 west or about 75
miles...120 km...south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi
River and about 325 miles...525 km...east-southeast of Galveston
Texas.


Edouard is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected today...with a west-northwestward
motion expected to continue on Tuesday. By Tuesday morning the
center of Edouard is expected to be very near the Upper Texas coast
or the coast of southwestern Louisiana.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is expected during the next 24
hours...and Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength before
reaching the coastline.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.


The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force hurricane
hunter data is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.


A storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected
in the warning area in areas of onshore flow.


Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches along portions of the Louisiana coast. Total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches are possible over southeastern Texas.


Repeating the 100 am CDT position...28.1 N...89.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 400 am CDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Bailey1777]

if there is a question of having a closed circulation what are we seeing on radar?

[Stormcenter]

Well it "looks" like he may be slowing down and......well you judge for yourself.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[RL3AO]

if there is a question of having a closed circulation what are we seeing on radar?

What you are seeing is a mid-level circulation at 20,000 feet.

[fasterdisaster]

ATTENTION EVERYONE: RECON HAS NOT REACHED THE CENTER WE ARE ALL SPEAKING PREMATURELY JUST BE PATIENT KTHX.