ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[jhamps10]

That first VDM must have been bad because this hasn't dropped 4mb in 2 hours.

yeah and you can see on the report map, there was no major wind shift that was there in this pass. my guess is that they barely got the northern side of center on that first pass.

[Normandy]

The VDM is probably accurate, and perhaps it has dropped 4 mb in two hours. Small systems like Edouard are prone to rapid fluctuations in intensity. It also makes sense that the pressure is lower because Edouard does actually look better structurally now than it did earlier (despite the lack of convection over the center). Check the outflow in the N quadrant, tons better now.

[Texashawk]

Ah, it appears the game is now afoot, my friends...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Is that the hint of wrapping around and slowing down I see?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... %282007%29

Here is the 5th storm of 2007. This also hit Texas. Will this be like it or will this be more impressive we will soon find out!

[Derek Ortt]

Matt, please stop saying something definitely is one thing or another.

This is NOT a TD, Matt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt, please stop saying something definitely is one thing or another.

This is NOT a TD, Matt

Yes some of the new recon clearly shows it to be a tropical storm. Also the "shear" appears to be starting to weaken with a new blow up starting to form close to the center.

I never said it was a "fact" that it was a TD, but the data from the vortex at the time shown it to be. I'm sorry I jump on things to fast.

[mpic]

I live 6 miles from the Bay and 20 miles north of Galveston in a mobile home. My boss will kill me if I don't show up for work tomorrow and nothing happens. I hate this!

[KWT]

Edouard has become exposed overnight (good call from Dean4storms by the way) though convection is still firing on that eastern side its still getting hit by some shear. This is stronger then was progged it seems which raises questions for its future set-up as well with shear possibly being under-estimated by the models further west as well, we shall see the shear should ease off.

[Bailey1777]

Is recon still out?

[KWT]

Looks like its now heading due west looking at the vis imagery, a few hours ago there was a case for WSW but that seems to have halted for now. Will be interesting to see what Edouard does in the next 12hrs...given Derek did say last night that gulf storms tend not to do as well in dmax for reason.

[jhamps10]

Is recon still out?

yeah just waiting for a fix on the actual center, however 1002.6 extrapolated is the lowest amount on the pressure.

[Bailey1777]

Is that new blow up over the llc or just east of it?

[xironman]

Between it slowing down and drifting south of west while convection builds to the east it is almost tucked under the new blowup.

[KWT]

Looks like the convective blow up is on the eastern side, will be interesting to now see whether that gets displaced ot whether it can hold near the LLC, if it holds may be the start ot a better set-up for this system developing.

[Bailey1777]

That's what I was thinking if he can just get under that it may be go time.

[Normandy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Radar alone suggests a deepening Edouard, convection finally seems to be firing over the center. Nice curved band developing around the COC.

[KWT]

Yep but right now still seems like shear is being a problem. The models have been expecting shear to ease off over the next 12hrs but we shall see, if it can get a decent convective blow up over the center then that will help its cause no end. This may be the first sign of shear easing though lets see.

[xironman]

10 knots does not strike me as a huge amount of shear. I think once it forms a core it will be fine.

[Smurfwicked]

If you noticed that over the last hour Ed has shown better signs of improvement when hours before it looked to some as if he was fading away. This fooled a lot of people many times with Dolly as she did the same thing around this same time intervals the 2 early mornings before she made landfall.

I'm guess it has something to do with this time and water temp vs. air temp? Just a guess. Any thoughts on that?

[KWT]

Problem is I bet the shear was at least a good deal higher then that, I'm willing to bet it got hit by 20kts breifly a few hours ago at mid levels which was missed by the shear maps, though that appears to be quickly easing down again now.

Also recon confirms a slightly south of west track still as well.