Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[storms in NC]

From what I can see from the WV loop it should start to turn to the north around 65-70. If not then it will go towards the front that will be coming down and meet up with it and out to sea. But right now I don't see it doing any thing till tues late or wed. JMO

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

The TAFB now opens 99L into a wave and sends it through Cuba into the W Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

This day will tell the story, if 99L can survive the shear and dry air it will move in the area of 22N and 65-70W where the conditions will be better for development. THe next 24 hours is the critical time. Convection still popping on the N side of LLC, but it's getting blown off by the shear. Still hanging on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[stevetampa33614]

I hint a more northern movement the last few frames.

[Sanibel]

System behavior suggests weakness all the way.

[HURAKAN]

Holding there!

[HURAKAN]

04/1145 UTC 20.4N 59.0W TOO WEAK 99L

[Sanibel]

Time to call poof 99L. Synoptic crunch and wipe-out.

Too weak.


I see they agree. But we should watch for a center relocation and possible development as it heads in a north direction in recurve and encounters better conditions.

[stevetampa33614]

Nah. Time of Death 10:00am.

next please.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I would tend to agree on the time of death, but for the convection as it is de-coupled from the surface feature. If it opens up (and it looks like it probably will) it may find it's way into the carrib as a wave. There is still indiaction of circulation on the visible sat, so we can't quite a put a fork in it. But "bones" is standing by to make the announcement, tri-corder in hand I would put chances of development below 20% of anything stonger than a "disturbance" BUT we have seen circulations survive the worst of upper air conditions only to emerge and develop later.

[HURAKAN]

You have traveled so much and the road hasn't been treating you well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still firing the occasional storm near the peak of the wave.


Lets hope, if the wave does enter the Caribbean or Southern Gulf, it won't get good for it before Central America.

[Category 5]

Still firing the occasional storm near the peak of the wave.


Lets hope, if the wave does enter the Caribbean or Southern Gulf, it won't get good for it before Central America.

Uhh, that would require a track to the southwest.

[cpdaman]

ya this thing is north of the NE caribean so.............i guess it is still technically within the latitude constraints of the NW carib, but with the forecast for a generally weak system to gain latitude (WNW at least) for next day, it would appear almost certain to be north of NW carib and S. gulf should this stay alive

[cpdaman]

also it does not appear dead right now........so at 10 am those death chants were not yet conclusive

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

appears to be around 21.5 / 61 and moving Wnw

[kpost]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

It still looks to be trying to hold on

[HURAKAN]

[stevetampa33614]

Well ya not officially dead I dont think anything happens with this. However, saying that, I dont see it recurving at all and there was no move north, except convection blow offs. So the models have been somewhat unreliable on this system.

[Honeyko]

How many times I gotta say it? Never write off anything with a southeast moist inflow feed. Look at it blow now that it's crossed the 28.5c isotherm. Not only that, it's poised to run over the best patch of water in the northwest Atlantic.

And, you'll hear this here first: Not only is this not going to recurve anytime soon (it remains firmly under the influence of a very impressive SAL surge, which is rolling it along like a dung-beetle), I think there's a not improbable chance it'll chug straight toward Florida and across into the Gulf (although likely at a farther north latitude than the pre-Katrina TD in 2005).

[KWT]

Some convection still trying to develop but there probably isn't much left to this now.

Honeyko, moist SE inflow is all welland good but its being hammered by shear now and will do for probably the next 24hrs or so, if it survives that then it may have a shot after that but may not be much left of it at all to develop from by that time.