ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard Model Runs

[cycloneye]

I would throw the model runs out until at least 00Z because of the latest development.

Agree.Lets see how the intensity is later tonight when the 00z runs are release.

[deltadog03]

At this point Models are about useless...I think we have a fairly good idea of where "HE" is going...Intensity, as always, will be tricky.

[vaffie]

I don't see why we should throw out the GFS. It's actually very valuable data in terms of where it shows Edouard to go. It takes it to Galveston for the 18Z run. So in other words, there is no change to the track or the speed. We're still talking about midday Tuesday-roughly Galveston. In regard to the intensity, the GFS is pretty useless at judging intensity anyway, and even if it was good, it never shows up on the chart anyway. For intensity I look at the GFDL and HWRF--they're much better at predicting intensity. The fact that the 12Z GFDL forecast a large pressure drop from 1000 to 990 as it was passing south of Lake Charles is concerning--because it indicates that conditions will be conducive to rapid intensification, which we're already seeing and it has barely even started moving yet. So that's bad news too.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL.Now lets see later how the model has the intensity.

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 032327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE      05L

INITIAL TIME  18Z AUG  3

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            28.3             88.1           260./ 6.0
   6            27.9             88.8           241./ 7.0
  12            27.8             89.5           265./ 6.6
  18            28.2             90.3           295./ 8.0
  24            28.5             91.5           284./10.9
  30            28.6             92.4           278./ 8.4
  36            29.0             93.6           288./10.6
  42            29.6             94.5           303./10.0
  48            30.1             95.4           300./ 9.5
  54            30.6             96.5           293./10.6
  60            30.8             97.7           281./10.3
  66            31.2             98.9           288./11.5
  72            31.4            100.2           279./11.2
  78            31.6            101.4           280./10.3
  84            32.0            102.5           286./ 9.9
  90            32.4            103.6           290./ 9.8
  96            32.7            104.1           298./ 5.4
 102            32.9            104.4           310./ 3.5
 108            33.1            104.7           304./ 3.2
 114            33.2            104.9           307./ 1.4
 120            33.3            104.5            72./ 3.2
 126            33.5            104.9           296./ 3.6


[cycloneye]

18z GFDL intensity,71kts at landfall.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Portastorm]

Just keep that track heading straight towards south central Texas. After another 100-degree-plus day and our parched earth ... generous rains will be welcome. But Edouard, don't linger!

[Derek Ortt]

18Z GFS a little too weak with the ridge

[KWT]

So a track a little to the west of the GFS/GFDL guidence then I take it seems more probable.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC SHIP intensity has it as hurricane at landfall (69kts).Its moving at 270 degrees at 4 kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 040002
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0002 UTC MON AUG 4 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD (AL052008) 20080804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080804 0000 080804 1200 080805 0000 080805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 88.2W 28.7N 89.9W 29.4N 91.6W 30.4N 93.8W
BAMD 28.1N 88.2W 28.2N 89.9W 28.8N 91.9W 29.6N 94.0W
BAMM 28.1N 88.2W 28.4N 90.1W 29.0N 92.3W 29.8N 94.6W
LBAR 28.1N 88.2W 28.1N 89.8W 28.8N 91.9W 29.5N 94.3W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 65KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080806 0000 080807 0000 080808 0000 080809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.4N 95.6W 33.5N 98.5W 35.7N 98.6W 36.1N 97.7W
BAMD 30.5N 96.1W 32.0N 100.0W 33.7N 102.6W 35.2N 103.5W
BAMM 30.7N 96.8W 32.3N 100.6W 33.9N 102.2W 35.0N 102.8W
LBAR 30.3N 96.5W 31.5N 99.4W 32.3N 100.5W 32.5N 99.8W
SHIP 71KTS 70KTS 64KTS 58KTS
DSHP 44KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 88.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 28.1N LONM12 = 87.4W DIRM12 = 230DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 29.0N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 20NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SouthFloridawx]

[fasterdisaster]

Everyone point and laugh at the CLP5

[cycloneye]

The 12:00 UTC model guidance weakens Edouard down to 40kts:

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613
WHXX01 KWBC 041210
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 UTC MON AUG 4 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD (AL052008) 20080804 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080804  1200   080805  0000   080805  1200   080806  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.1N  90.3W   28.6N  92.1W   29.4N  94.3W   30.4N  96.4W
BAMD    28.1N  90.3W   28.4N  92.2W   29.0N  94.2W   29.9N  96.3W
BAMM    28.1N  90.3W   28.4N  92.7W   29.0N  95.1W   29.8N  97.5W
LBAR    28.1N  90.3W   28.4N  92.3W   29.0N  94.6W   29.8N  96.9W
SHIP        40KTS          41KTS          43KTS          45KTS
DSHP        40KTS          41KTS          43KTS          32KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080806  1200   080807  1200   080808  1200   080809  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.5N  98.4W   33.4N 101.0W   34.7N 102.0W   35.7N 102.4W
BAMD    30.7N  98.1W   32.3N 101.1W   33.4N 102.7W   34.4N 103.9W
BAMM    30.5N  99.6W   32.0N 102.6W   32.9N 103.7W   33.4N 104.7W
LBAR    30.5N  98.9W   31.8N 101.2W   32.6N 101.5W   31.7N  99.1W
SHIP        47KTS          53KTS          57KTS          57KTS
DSHP        28KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.1N LONCUR =  90.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  28.1N LONM12 =  88.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  28.1N LONM24 =  87.4W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   30NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z WRF says everything is great, almost perfect, no tropical storm force sustained winds on the coast, and while I wish the heaviest rain came a tad farther North, I'll take it.

[cycloneye]

The model guidance for 00:00 UTC has moving Edouard at 285 degrees.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 050026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC TUE AUG 5 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD (AL052008) 20080805 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080805  0000   080805  1200   080806  0000   080806  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.4N  91.6W   29.5N  93.7W   30.7N  95.6W   32.2N  97.4W
BAMD    28.4N  91.6W   29.1N  93.7W   30.1N  95.8W   31.0N  97.8W
BAMM    28.4N  91.6W   29.0N  94.0W   30.0N  96.4W   30.7N  98.7W
LBAR    28.4N  91.6W   28.9N  93.7W   29.8N  95.7W   30.6N  97.7W
SHIP        45KTS          51KTS          57KTS          58KTS
DSHP        45KTS          51KTS          41KTS          31KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080807  0000   080808  0000   080809  0000   080810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    33.6N  98.7W   35.3N  99.9W   35.9N 100.5W   36.9N 100.5W
BAMD    32.0N  99.6W   32.9N 101.8W   33.1N 103.3W   33.4N 104.3W
BAMM    31.6N 100.5W   32.4N 103.0W   32.5N 104.7W   32.9N 106.2W
LBAR    31.5N  99.0W   32.9N  99.7W   32.3N  98.2W   31.9N  94.1W
SHIP        58KTS          59KTS          54KTS          47KTS
DSHP        28KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.4N LONCUR =  91.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  28.1N LONM12 =  90.3W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  28.1N LONM24 =  88.5W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   40KT
CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   60NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  60NM


285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[canetracker]

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