ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Extremeweatherguy]

I notice the fix cited in cycloneye's post gives the position a big jog to the north, from 28.1 a little bit ago to 28.3 while longitude is the same. Is this a Dvorak fix or a met. reviewed location fix?

The 545UTC fix had the center at 29.2N 89.7W, and the newer 1145UTC fix places it at 29.3N 90.1W. In that 6 hour timeframe, the center moved 0.1 degrees north and 0.4 degrees west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Stormcenter]

Does look like there is a little jog to north in the last frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

A wise observer will let that ULL scoot SW as it is rapidly doing and see what it does in terms of shear and stacking. Lots of time still with this.

[stevetampa33614]

Here I made this. Houston is the target.

Still thinking Eddy isnt going to be a big deal. Theres isnt time.



Ill let people speculate on the CATEGORY 5 OMG and RAPID INTENSIFICATION thats going to happen. Personally, I feel this wont reach cat 1. My feeling it hasnt developed in good conditions and it wont now thats its moving. The die was caste last night. If a system isnt strengthening its weakening.

[physicx07]

The VORTEX msg from 1102Z had 90-14 (90.23) and 28-07 (28.12). So 90.2 and 28.1. Maybe the LLC and MLC are getting mixed up between these. Actually I think on the VORTEX it said the fix was at 850mb.

I notice the fix cited in cycloneye's post gives the position a big jog to the north, from 28.1 a little bit ago to 28.3 while longitude is the same. Is this a Dvorak fix or a met. reviewed location fix?

The 545UTC fix had the center at 29.2N 89.7W, and the newer 1145UTC fix places it at 29.3N 90.1W. In that 6 hour timeframe, the center moved 0.1 degrees north and 0.4 degrees west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[dwg71]

Chances of Hurricane are less than 10% in my opinion. It will struggle to get it's act together today with sheer out in front.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont see what you all mean about a decoupling MLC and LLC. I know what it is, I saw it in Chris 2006, but I dont see it here. All I see is an old, dying convection blob moving north as it does so. The motion is still W or a little south of W. New bursts are forming, and I dont think things are as bad for this storm as some of you think.

[Stormcenter]

I dont see what you all mean about a decoupling MLC and LLC. I know what it is, I saw it in Chris 2006, but I dont see it here. All I see is an old, dying convection blob moving north as it does so. The motion is still W or a little south of W. New bursts are forming, and I dont think things are as bad for this storm as some of you think.

South of west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Here I made this. Houston is the target.

Still thinking Eddy isnt going to be a big deal. Theres isnt time.



Ill let people speculate on the CATEGORY 5 OMG and RAPID INTENSIFICATION thats going to happen. Personally, I feel this wont reach cat 1. My feeling it hasnt developed in good conditions and it wont now thats its moving. The die was caste last night. If a system isnt strengthening its weakening.

or its staying the same

[funster]

I dont see what you all mean about a decoupling MLC and LLC. I know what it is, I saw it in Chris 2006, but I dont see it here. All I see is an old, dying convection blob moving north as it does so. The motion is still W or a little south of W. New bursts are forming, and I dont think things are as bad for this storm as some of you think.

I agree - Ed is not losing his clothes like Chris did.

[KWT]

Radar will be seeing the mid level circulation but may also be a little off the true position due to the distances.

As Sanibel hasd already said the UL has been causing shear but once this gets out of the way that should rapidly reduce and the only main threat then becomes dry air for this system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think the radar shows a better eye.

A clear spot near the center of a disorganized mid-strength tropical storm is probably not a true eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont see what you all mean about a decoupling MLC and LLC. I know what it is, I saw it in Chris 2006, but I dont see it here. All I see is an old, dying convection blob moving north as it does so. The motion is still W or a little south of W. New bursts are forming, and I dont think things are as bad for this storm as some of you think.

South of west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yeah. The heading hasnt changed much since last night. Dont follow the big convection blob. That's not the center, people. The LLC is on the SW side of that blob

[Swimdude]

I love how the members of this board seem to fluctuate in opinion every few hours.

"Weak Tropical Storm at best."

"Hurricane! Hurricane for Houston!"

"Not getting its act together."

"Convection is increasing... Wrapping around the West."

"Just a rain event."

"It has plenty more time over water - anything could happen."


Goodness. To an outside observer, I wouldn't know what to think.

My opinion is somewhere in the middle. Although Ed isn't getting his act together well this morning, this should change as the day goes on. My less-than-educated guess is 65mph at landfall, at or just south of Galveston. But I just gave y'all another opinion to disagree with, so have at it!

[Stormcenter]

I dont see what you all mean about a decoupling MLC and LLC. I know what it is, I saw it in Chris 2006, but I dont see it here. All I see is an old, dying convection blob moving north as it does so. The motion is still W or a little south of W. New bursts are forming, and I dont think things are as bad for this storm as some of you think.

South of west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yeah. The heading hasnt changed much since last night. Dont follow the big convection blob. That's not the center, people. The LLC is on the SW side of that blob

Well the NHC doesn't see it your way and radar confirms that.

[kurtpage]

Here I made this. Houston is the target.

If you made that why does it have the Weather Underground logo on it?

[stevetampa33614]

Here I made this. Houston is the target.



Ill let people speculate on the CATEGORY 5 OMG and RAPID INTENSIFICATION thats going to happen. Personally, I feel this wont reach cat 1. My feeling it hasnt developed in good conditions and it wont now thats its moving. The die was caste last night. If a system isnt strengthening its weakening.

If you made that why does it have the Weather Underground logo on it?

meant to say i saved and hosted it. didnt make it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here I made this. Houston is the target.

If you made that why does it have the Weather Underground logo on it?

Lol yeah, its on the tropical storm page in wunderground. Gee, steve, your loop sure is popular

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am not saying it will happen but I bet a Hurricane Warning will be issued by the 11am ADV.and to make this clear this is an unoffistly forecast!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can find the latest update from Jeff Masters here...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

He currently is predicting landfall as a strong tropical storm.