ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

All this argueing on the center will become moot when we get recon in there in a few hours time, my guess right now would be averaged motion over 3hrs of about 275, it does seem to have lifted up a little from its slight south of west track earlier on but we shall have to see.

This is certainly keeping everyone guessing!

Seems like landfall of between 55-70kts is looking the best bet right now.

[xironman]

The RGB shows what I was talking about http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rgb.html. It looked to me like the old convective mass north of 28 had a bit of spin that could easily be seen with radar. While close to 28 where the convection is popping is the LLC.

[cheezyWXguy]

I am not saying it will happen but I bet a Hurricane Warning will be issued by the 11am ADV.and to make this clear this is an unoffistly forecast!!!!!

why? its a disorganized 50mph ts...they wouldnt need that until it starts strengthening again.

[Evil Jeremy]

But by then it could be to late to issue one.

[KWT]

Because cheezyWXguy its forecasted to get upto 60kts which is close enough to hurricane status to justify hurricane warning, we don't want this pulling a Humberto and whilst thats not looking as likely its not a total impossiblity.

[Chacor]

Not remarkably organised convectively...

[N2Storms]

On radar it really seems to be getting better organized...convection is building all the way around and outflow seems pretty decent except for some suppression to the north...I'd sure like to see some recon data, this could get very interesting IMO...

[Sanibel]

Eduoard just convected on its west side. What does that tell you?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Chacor]

Because cheezyWXguy its forecasted to get upto 60kts which is close enough to hurricane status to justify hurricane warning, we don't want this pulling a Humberto and whilst thats not looking as likely its not a total impossiblity.

They're not going to go to hurricane warnings when it's still >24 hours off the coast. Warnings = 24 hours or less.

[KWT]

The RGB shows what I was talking about http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rgb.html. It looked to me like the old convective mass north of 28 had a bit of spin that could easily be seen with radar. While close to 28 where the convection is popping is the LLC.

Really tough to make out where the circulation actually is on that loop, can see why there are so many disagreements about the track and center location as of this moment.

I do think its slowly trying to get orgnaised, convection is still popping in various locations around the LLC though the eastern convective mass is decaying a little in turn.

Chacor, next advisory should have this at the coast by 24hrs time I reckon.

[cheezyWXguy]

But by then it could be to late to issue one.

The definition of a hurricane warning is that hurricane conditions are likely in 24 hours or are occuring now. Its neither of these yet. I didnt say it wont happen, because honestly I think they will eventually issue one, but I dont think that right now is the time.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I am not saying it will happen but I bet a Hurricane Warning will be issued by the 11am ADV.and to make this clear this is an unoffistly forecast!!!!!

why? its a disorganized 50mph ts...they wouldnt need that until it starts strengthening again.

If gusts are going to be near or over hurricane force then yes I think they should issue one but in this case they should because it could get to a cat.1 65kt cane by landfall IMHO!!!!!!!!

[funster]

Because cheezyWXguy its forecasted to get upto 60kts which is close enough to hurricane status to justify hurricane warning, we don't want this pulling a Humberto and whilst thats not looking as likely its not a total impossiblity.

They're not going to go to hurricane warnings when it's still >24 hours off the coast. Warnings = 24 hours or less.

It will be pretty close to 24 hours away by that time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since recon won't be there in time, I think odds of an H warning at 9:45 am CDT are slim to none.


If, for some odd reason, recon finds strengthening to, say, something below 1000 mb and winds approaching 60 mph, warnings could be issued at the 1 pm CDT intermediate, or the 3:45 pm CDT regular advisory.

Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch are already up, so it isn't like people would be caught with their pants down by a 3 or 6 hour delay.


Just my uneducated and unofficial opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Because cheezyWXguy its forecasted to get upto 60kts which is close enough to hurricane status to justify hurricane warning, we don't want this pulling a Humberto and whilst thats not looking as likely its not a total impossiblity.

They're not going to go to hurricane warnings when it's still >24 hours off the coast. Warnings = 24 hours or less.

Generally, if hurricane conditions are expected, the warning goal is 24 hours before sustained tropical storm force winds arrive, as it is assumed when sustained tropical storm force winds have arrived, it is too late for further preparation.

[njweather]

Looks like the NHC forecast will be right on target. Mid-strength to strong tropical storm by Tues morning making landfall around Galveston Bay.

Of course, I would just like to remind everyone of a little system we had two weeks prior: Dolly.

Let's not forget how ragged looking it was yet how quickly it was able to strengthen.

[cheezyWXguy]

Because cheezyWXguy its forecasted to get upto 60kts which is close enough to hurricane status to justify hurricane warning, we don't want this pulling a Humberto and whilst thats not looking as likely its not a total impossiblity.

Good point. Personally I believe the difference between our point of views is difference between 11am and 5pm. I believe one should be issued today, but I think the NHC should wait until they are sure that this still has the opportunity to become a hurricane.

[deltadog03]

NO need for warnings right now....I think some on here are so up and down with tropical systems...The bickering on here is crazy at times.

[Stormcenter]

Call it what you want but it sure "looks" like there is now a definite more west northwest motion per radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[KWT]

deltadog03, wouldn't it be prudent just in case for the next 9hrs or so to put them up just to cover the possiblity that it strengthens more then expcted because whilst they may not be needed the expected 60kts is close to the boundary is it not?

does look increasingly likely this won't become anything stronger then a high end TS at this moment in time however.