ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Chacor]

With the hurricane watch up, people should be preparing for a hurricane anyway.

For what it's worth, Edouard has been lowered to 40 kt at 0600z in the BT despite it being 45 kt operationally.

AL, 05, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 874W, 25, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 281N, 878W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 175, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,
AL, 05, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 281N, 884W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,
AL, 05, 2008080406, , BEST, 0, 281N, 896W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M, 12, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0
AL, 05, 2008080412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 903W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think hurricane warnings are required right now. The watches are probably fine until it appears that this thing will indeed make a run for hurricane strength. I would definitely wait until after recon gets in there.

[Category 5]

I am not saying it will happen but I bet a Hurricane Warning will be issued by the 11am ADV.and to make this clear this is an unoffistly forecast!!!!!

why? its a disorganized 50mph ts...they wouldnt need that until it starts strengthening again.

If gusts are going to be near or over hurricane force then yes I think they should issue one but in this case they should because it could get to a cat.1 65kt cane by landfall IMHO!!!!!!!!

Well considering this will likely drop to 40kts next advisory, logic strongly disagrees. They will issue them if needed, settle down.

[deltadog03]

Well, I still think we end up with a cane, but guidance and nhc is not so sure...Right now, you have watches up and I really don't think they need warnings until 5pm tonight. ( and that depends on what recon finds)

[hurricanefloyd5]

WHY WOULD THE WIND SPEED DROP FOR???i THINK IT LOOKS ALITTLE ABIT TODAY THEN YESTERDAY

[Extremeweatherguy]

With the hurricane watch up, people should be preparing for a hurricane anyway.

For what it's worth, Edouard has been lowered to 40 kt at 0600z in the BT despite it being 45 kt operationally.

AL, 05, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 874W, 25, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 281N, 878W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 175, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,
AL, 05, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 281N, 884W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,
AL, 05, 2008080406, , BEST, 0, 281N, 896W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M, 12, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0
AL, 05, 2008080412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 903W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

6z and 12z were hours ago, and the system now looks a little better than it did at those times. Lets see what the NHC does at 11am.

[KWT]

Yeah the NHC will probably drop this to 40kts come next full advisory and thus the forecasted strength will probably come down to 55kts as well in response to that.

[Chacor]

With the hurricane watch up, people should be preparing for a hurricane anyway.

For what it's worth, Edouard has been lowered to 40 kt at 0600z in the BT despite it being 45 kt operationally.

AL, 05, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 874W, 25, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 281N, 878W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 175, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,
AL, 05, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 281N, 884W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,
AL, 05, 2008080406, , BEST, 0, 281N, 896W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M, 12, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0
AL, 05, 2008080412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 903W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

6z and 12z were hours ago, and the system now looks a little better than it did at those times. Lets see what the NHC does at 11am.

It's 14:30z right now. 12z was not "hours ago".

[Extremeweatherguy]

With the hurricane watch up, people should be preparing for a hurricane anyway.

For what it's worth, Edouard has been lowered to 40 kt at 0600z in the BT despite it being 45 kt operationally.

AL, 05, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 281N, 874W, 25, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 281N, 878W, 30, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 175, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M,
AL, 05, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 281N, 884W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,
AL, 05, 2008080406, , BEST, 0, 281N, 896W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M, 12, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0
AL, 05, 2008080412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 903W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

6z and 12z were hours ago, and the system now looks a little better than it did at those times. Lets see what the NHC does at 11am.

It's 14:30z right now. 12z was not "hours ago".

2 and a half hours equals "hours ago" in my book.

Hours (plural) means more than one. And two and a half is definitely more than one.

[KWT]

WHY WOULD THE WIND SPEED DROP FOR???i THINK IT LOOKS ALITTLE ABIT TODAY THEN YESTERDAY

Simply because recon could only find winds that would support 40kts and thats why they've lowered the wind because real obs are far more important then a systems looks.

[Category 5]

WHY WOULD THE WIND SPEED DROP FOR???i THINK IT LOOKS ALITTLE ABIT TODAY THEN YESTERDAY

Because we have something called recon that helps dispell such myths. Please calm down.

[Steve]

>>the convection is NOT that impressive this morning

Come on man, it's fine for a tropical storm - possibly as good as it has ever appeared. And it's getting better organized OVERALL even if it is encountering shear and some stacking issues. Hello, it's a TROPICAL STORM,not a Category 5 hurricane.

For everyone else whose overnight posts I skimmed through trying to be the first to call the death knell last night, you were wrong. Some of us understand the nature of NW/WNW/W moving weaker systems in the Gulf. Looks can be and ARE often deceiving.

It's a beautiful day in the Crescent City, breezy and warm. If we get some bands through later today, I'll send up some photos. But IMHO, Houston's gonna get hit sometime tomorrow by a strengthening and further organizing system rather than one going poof. Bank on it.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Is the center starting to close?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Extremeweatherguy]

WHY WOULD THE WIND SPEED DROP FOR???i THINK IT LOOKS ALITTLE ABIT TODAY THEN YESTERDAY

Because we have something called recon that helps dispell such myths. Please calm down.

recon has not been in the storm for a long time though. Things could have easily changed since earlier this morning when the storm appeared weaker on satellite. The next recon mission leaving in about an hour and a half (I think) should be beneficial in answering all of our questions.

[Chacor]

WHY WOULD THE WIND SPEED DROP FOR???i THINK IT LOOKS ALITTLE ABIT TODAY THEN YESTERDAY

Because we have something called recon that helps dispell such myths. Please calm down.

recon has not been in the storm for a long time though. Things could have easily changed since earlier this morning when the storm appeared weaker on satellite. The next recon mission leaving in about an hour and a half (I think) should be beneficial in answering all of our questions.

1500z:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

End of discussion there, I think.

[KWT]

Estimates are just that though to be fair they can be wrong Chacor. I think recon may find a slightly stronger storm then when they left though I'm not all that impressed at present by it, though pressure may drop down a touch depending of course on what it does in the next 2-3hrs.

Stormcenter, possibly its hard to say, we really do need recon though now!

[Tireman4]

Remember, and correct me if I am wrong, the induction of dry air has hampered it (from the High Pressure) somewhat. Now that the High is moving eastward, the ingredients (warm water and low wind shear) might induce it to strengthen. Just my opinion.

[hurricanefloyd5]

...Tropical Storm Warning extended westward...
At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
westward to Port Oconnor Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in
effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Port
Oconnor.


11AM IS OUT

[Ed Mahmoud]

They can do warnings at 1 pm CDT based on recon data, if justified. IMHO, nothing now suggests hurricane warnings are needed on the 9:45 am CDT advisory.

[hicksta]

seems like she is going to strengthen soon, im off the the grocery store.