ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[HURAKAN]

[TexasStorm]

Being that it is so close to land, is the inflow not being hampered by that?

[Stormcenter]

Being that it is so close to land, is the inflow not being hampered by that?

Right now it's south of some pretty marshy land area. I don't think so.

[KWT]

Probably thats one of the main issues for this system TexasStorm. Yes thereis marshland but that still has much lower humidity compared to the wide open ocean for example.

Certainly has become more convectivly active but needs to become a little better organised and not just a mass of storms before we see any real strengthening occur

[gboudx]

jeff's 10am email.

TS Warning has been extending to Port O Connor

Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the entire upper TX coast.

Flash Flood Watch in effect until 600pm Tuesday.

Inland TS warnings in effect for: Fort Bend, Wharton, Colorado, Waller, Austin, Montgomery

All EOC's are fully activated.

Residents should rush preparations to completion and complete by dark this evening for the impact of a category 1 hurricane.

Current:

Edouard looks semi-well organized this morning with thunderstorms attempting to develop around the center and upper air shear weakening on the western semi-circle supporting increasing convection in this region. Recon. reports this morning have not shown in significant amount of deepening...however upper air conditions are improving, so intensification may begin shortly.

Track:

NHC and track guidance remains highly clustered on a track and impact into the upper TX coast. This is a high confidence forecast track with impact of high end TS or low end cat 1 into Galveston or Brazoria counties early Tuesday morning and then tracking inland across Fort Bend into Austin and Colorado counties during the day on Tuesday.

Intensity:

The storm has failed to intensify since yesterday evening however conditions appear to be improving for development and if deep convection develops over the tiny center deepening will likely happen fairly quickly. Latest GFDL run still shows a 68kt hurricane at landfall.

Impacts:

There have been no changes to the impacts from this morning. Expect TS force winds to arrive on the coast early Tuesday and expand inland during the day along with bands of heavy rains.
Note:

Tides are being increased to 4-6' above normal to the E of San Luis Pass and 4-5' on the west side of Galveston Bay.

Will also be increasing rainfall totals to 3-5" with isolated 10" possible

Wind duration of 6-10 hours of TS force winds will be felt across our area starting around 500am with landfall expected around 900-1000am Tuesday.

Detailed impacts will be sent this afternoon if time allows.

Actions:

State of TX is pulling resources as fast as possible out of S TX toward SE TX.

State will be establishing POD site across the area in post recovery operations...to provide ice, water, and possibly blue tarps.

All local EOC's are fully activated

Local Disaster District Coordination is fully activated

Texas Task Force 1 has been activated to Reliant Stadium

All residents in the TS warning and hurricane watch area need to rush preparations to completion.

We have a trip to Galveston planned for Wed-Fri. I think we're just going to stick with it and head down there.

[KWT]

I think what Jeff says is wise advice, people should be preparing for a category-1 because whilst it may not get that strong people need to be ready just in case it does.

Also its true that because its got a really small center it could strengthen really rapidly if it does get decent conditions.

[dwg71]

we need the rain, a 45kt ts would be nice, lets hope it stays away from hurricane strength. Its fluctuations hopefully will continue and just be a relief from the heat.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Hopefully dwg71 you guys there don't want a strengthening hurricane to head into your region. The good news is that with each hour of fairly disorganised convective set-up the chances decrease but I'm very curious to see what recon shows in the deeper convection.

[Frank2]

It's mostly void of convection from W through NW, perhaps due to the hot, dry air over LA and TX...

Hot temps don't always equal convection - similar to the "too cold for snow" situation, temps too high can create very low dew points...

[KWT]

Yep you can see that quite well Frank2 though with these systems I've seen hurricanes before that really don't have much of a western side to them, what we need to watch for is a small convective burst to wrap around the center, doesn't have to be large just enough to cover the LLC totally and if that happens strengthening should occur.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hot conditions create lower relative humidities.

If dewpoints drop on hot days, it is because surface moist layer was fairly thin, and daytime heating promotes mixing, with brings some drier air to the surface.

[bayoubebe]

Wo! That's impressive looking to my (untrained) eye.

[jhamps10]

Yep you can see that quite well Frank2 though with these systems I've seen hurricanes before that really don't have much of a western side to them, what we need to watch for is a small convective burst to wrap around the center, doesn't have to be large just enough to cover the LLC totally and if that happens strengthening should occur.

yeah seesh remember dolly when it was in strengthening mode. she still had dry air coming in to the right side. Ed right now looks like to me like dolly did right before it started to really get it's act going good. we will be thanking god that this doesn't have an extra 12 hours over the gulf, but still this can do a lot with the 20-24 hours it has left over the waters.

[KWT]

From Hurakan's image it does sort of seem like its trying again to wrap the convection around the LLC, clearly however there is a dry slot on the SW which probably isn't helping matters at all.

[dwg71]

bebe the center is still void of any real convection. it is lacking any real wrapping of the center. it looks marginal at best, we will see if it can get its act together.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Home grown storms near Texas often have a ragged Western side due dry air from land.

I don't think this will ever be a hurricane, but the wise person prepares as if it still will be a hurricane.


I am guessing early afternoon recon finds ballpark 1000 mb, and 45 to 50 knot low level flight level winds. Again, if Edouard is much stronger than that, NHC may choose to post H warnings, either at 1 pm intermediate or 3:45 pm CDT regular advisory.

Not sure if a hurricane warning for a possible Cat 1 will help anyone who isn't taking a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning seriously anyway.

[KWT]

dwg71, I think the northern convection is showing subtle signs of wrapping around the center but its a little on the messy side in termrs of organisation even if in terms of overall convection IMO its pretty decent.

[Texashawk]

Radar is really starting to show a good wrap around the COC...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Yeah, yeah, I know, looks can be decieving, but in the absence of hard OBS one must use their other tools...

[jhamps10]

Radar is really starting to show a good wrap around the COC...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Yeah, yeah, I know, looks can be decieving, but in the absence of hard OBS one must use their other tools...

yep, without recon in there, one must use tools such as radar to help us in seeing if it's getting it's act together. which it sure looks like it's wrapping around to me.