ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Honeyko]

Those shrimp farms are taking a beating.

[MiamiensisWx]

See, here's the problem.

I live in Houston, and I am partly responsible for determining whether my company shuts down tomorrow. I have been more or less designated the 'expert' in these matters, and I will have a significant say in the decision. Based on track, the easy decision is to make the call - HOWEVER the storm right now is barely above tropical depression strength (officially) - HOWEVER it is small and it appears to be organizing fairly quickly - HOWEVER the NHC does not seem to agree.

I'm sure quandries like these are playing out all over Houston, and it's frustrating. Anybody else in the same boat?

Texashawk,

Firstly, keep in mind that I'm not an expert, but I have faced analogous conundrums when I considered the "evacuation vs. staying" debate at my south FL residence in 2004 and 2005. I have also closely monitored Edouard, so I could offer some possible solutions. However, the final decision should be left to you. I would monitor the statements from local emergency management officials as well, regardless of your company's needs. It can offer very crucial information for making your requests, in addition to information from the NHC/NWS discussions.

Are you and your company located inland from Galveston Bay? Since the wind radii of Edouard will likely be fairly narrow, if your location is inland from the coast and Galveston Island, overland friction may prevent your location from observing sustained winds greater than TS intensity. Although higher gusts would definitely occur and present a hazard with flying debris, your location may be relatively safe compared to bayfront/Gulf sites, especially in regards to flooding and higher winds. Typically, the maximum sustained winds of a TC are found within a relatively narrow area along the immediate coastline and areas with marine/water exposure.

Overall, the winds your location may receive depends on Edouard's intensity trends and ultimate intensity. Currently, Edouard has regained a small inner core per radar. With an upper low to the west providing favorable outflow channels on the western side as it moves SW (away from the TC), these factors strongly support intensification. However, the rate/degree of deepening is more questionable. On WV imagery, the upper low appears to be advecting subsidence and mid level dry air toward the tropical cyclone. When combined with some lingering upper level shear, that may limit the amount of strengthening prior to landfall, though the system will be intensifying up to landfall. Currently, based on steering at all levels, a possible landfall location in the vicinity of Galveston, Texas appears plausible, though uncertainties exist and should be always taken into account. Based on all factors, I personally expect a strong (55-60 kt) TS making landfall over or near Galveston, though one should always be prepared for a stronger (Cat 1) TC.

Another factor is the fact that the TC will be intensifying at landfall. These trends tend to result in a TC mixing the stronger winds to the surface more efficiently than weakening ones, and they also may bring stronger winds further inland as well, depending on the speed of the TC's forward movement.

Finally, is your company situated in a low lying area? Heavy precipitation (rain) and isolated tornadoes will likely present hazards with Edouard as well. These threats may present the biggest dangers at your company's location.

Anyway, good luck. Hopefully, I helped.

Edit: I think caplan1's "delayed closure" suggestion may be the best idea.

[dwg71]

The convection flare up is not over the center, this has been happening for the past few days. Nothing to think a cane is imminent.

Let's see what recon finds.

[Normandy]

KGSM 041541Z 06045KT 0SM TS 27/23 RMK TROPICAL STORM HITTING AT TIME OF REPORT

Ship observation in the gulf supports at least 50 mph right now.

['CaneFreak]

Seems to be heading in a more NW direction at this time:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Thats just an illusion of the center becoming better defined. Nope, she's still poised to landfall around Houston this time tomorrow.

[vacanechaser]

It's very poorly organized at this time, with multiple centers within the broad circulation itself, so, so far so good...

Ummm there is one clear as day LLC that is a little exposed, just south of that convective mass on the northern side of the system. Still lacking a little thanks to the dry slot but if that gets filled in at any stage then its going to strengthen pretty quickly being a small system.

ok, remember frank likes to stir the pot and get all you guys going... just ignor him... for someone who claims to know so much about tropical systems.. . ..

looking much better this morning and afternoon... circulation is tight and very strong... when it works the dry air out, look out..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Just about to post that Normandy, that alone suggests a upwards movement from the NHC upto 45kts but may as well see what recon shows first.

MiamiensisWx, yep I totally agree with your post, nice post by the way!

[gboudx]

>>I'm starting to wonder if we should carry out our vacation plans to Galveston or not now? Geez, I wish this decision was easier.

Don't be a wuss, be an adventurer.

Steve

Haha. Not everyone drives to Anniston, Al in an icestorm.

[Stormcenter]

Seems to be heading in a more NW direction at this time:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Thats just an illusion of the center becoming better defined. Nope, she's still poised to landfall around Houston this time tomorrow.

Hmmmmm I don't know about any illusions but it looks wnw to me at about 7mph.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Bailey1777]

This is a much better system than 6 hr's ago presentation wise. I think recon will find a 60 mph storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

Landfall Houston? Not likely....

[bayoubebe]

How much can SE Louisiana expect to get from
Ed?
Much rain?
It "looks" like it is just below us.

[cycloneye]

It's very poorly organized at this time, with multiple centers within the broad circulation itself, so, so far so good...

Ummm there is one clear as day LLC that is a little exposed, just south of that convective mass on the northern side of the system. Still lacking a little thanks to the dry slot but if that gets filled in at any stage then its going to strengthen pretty quickly being a small system.

ok, remember frank likes to stir the pot and get all you guys going... just ignor him... for someone who claims to know so much about tropical systems.. . ..

looking much better this morning and afternoon... circulation is tight and very strong... when it works the dry air out, look out..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse,,are you going to chase Edouard?

Its looking better than early this morning.

[KWT]

The convection flare up is not over the center, this has been happening for the past few days. Nothing to think a cane is imminent.

Let's see what recon finds.

Yep the convection is on the northern side of the LLC but importantly its heading towards the inflow region in the NW quadrant and so that should moisten things up a little and allow that dry air slot to fill in over the next 2hrs and may allow for some short term strengthening.

[dwg71]

If the center is anywhere near where it looks on radar its significantly north of path...

lets see what recon finds.

[KWT]

Stormcenter, I'm getting pretty much due west looking at the high resolution Sat.imagery right now though recon shall give a much better indication over the next 6hrs of true movement.

[Steve]

Got the photo in. So within the past 4 minutes, here's a shot from central Lafourche Parish (between Lockport and Valentine, LA) looking southerly toward south Terrebonne Parish which would be roughly South of where it was taken. Thanks to Everett. :9:

[Bailey1777]

I see due West and it is a little south of nhc track.

[KWT]

If the center is anywhere near where it looks on radar its significantly north of path...

lets see what recon finds.

I don't really like using recon for these sorts of weak systems movement can be fooled by convective bursts. Interestingly the convective blob has jogged to the NW whilst the LLC has moved westwards, probably why its become a little more exposed in the last hour.

[vacanechaser]

Jesse,,are you going to chase Edouard?

Its looking better than early this morning.

if i could, i would be on my way... but, i just could not make it with the drive from virginia... i would fly, but dont have the cash right now... so, thats out for me...

mark, i think made the decission not to go based on the way it looked this morning... not really sure though... if i could, i would be there.. period!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team