ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Wx_Warrior]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 041752
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
100 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EDOUARD AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[jabman98]

Did I just hear TWC correctly. TX/LA landfall.

Our local AM radio (KTRH or KPRC in Houston - can't remember which I clicked on) on the 12 p.m. CT update said the same thing. So that was about an hour ago. I was in the car and they said it was moving fast, would hit more east of Houston on the TX/LA border and much earlier than expected - like tonight rather than tomorrow (Tue).

I heard the 11 a.m. update and they didn't say anything like that. So I came online to see what had changed, but it doesn't look like NHC is now putting it on the TX/LA border. Is it? Am I missing something?

Did NHC revise something for the media and alert systems?

[KWT]

Its probably some unofifical person in the media claiming its going to hit further east and the media have latche donto it or something, NHC track looks the same as it was before and it seems to be pretty much bang on the forecasted track so no reason to doubt the NHC forecast really.

[dwg71]

Wow, no posts in 10 minutes? Suprising. I read on KHOU's Weather Board that some gas stations in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area are running out of fuel at this time, not good!

Everyone needs to relax, at this point we are dealing with a minimal TS. The local media is doing a tremendous job of hyping this up. I purposely have not turned on the TV or listend to the radio. But i have had calls...."there is a hurricane coming right at us.."

[KWT]

Once again though the key point in the forecast is this:

"AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE."

Everyone in the way should still be preparing for a minimal hurricane.

[Wx_Warrior]

Nothing of that nature here in Beaumont. Bogus report.

[Duddy]

Did I just hear TWC correctly. TX/LA landfall.

Our local AM radio (KTRH or KPRC in Houston - can't remember which I clicked on) on the 12 p.m. CT update said the same thing. So that was about an hour ago. I was in the car and they said it was moving fast, would hit more east of Houston on the TX/LA border and much earlier than expected - like tonight rather than tomorrow (Tue).

I heard the 11 a.m. update and they didn't say anything like that. So I came online to see what had changed, but it doesn't look like NHC is now putting it on the TX/LA border. Is it? Am I missing something?

Did NHC revise something for the media and alert systems?

Looks the same to me, Brazoria/Galveston. Nowhere NEAR the TX/LA border.

[MiamiensisWx]

Its forward movement appears to be increasing as the upper low to the SW departs from the area. Landfall may likely occur within ~24-26 hours, in my view. Hurricane status has become less probable, as I expected. However, the NHC is dutifully maintaining a cautious approach, and no one can blame them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Galveston area strike appears to be the most probable solution. I'm reiterating my view, but based on steering and trends, I can't see a landfall drastically further NE.

[Wx_Warrior]

I work in the media (hence a sports editor) but have the AP Wire service and everything else (WX related) right chere.

[HouTXmetro]

Did I just hear TWC correctly. TX/LA landfall.

Our local AM radio (KTRH or KPRC in Houston - can't remember which I clicked on) on the 12 p.m. CT update said the same thing. So that was about an hour ago. I was in the car and they said it was moving fast, would hit more east of Houston on the TX/LA border and much earlier than expected - like tonight rather than tomorrow (Tue).

I heard the 11 a.m. update and they didn't say anything like that. So I came online to see what had changed, but it doesn't look like NHC is now putting it on the TX/LA border. Is it? Am I missing something?

Did NHC revise something for the media and alert systems?

Due to the shape of the coastline Eduoard would have to start moving solidly NW for the eye to hit LA. I don't see that happening.

[HURAKAN]

[Steve]

Still appears to be getting better organized to me based on the visibles

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=4

No real surpise there. If you get "method post", just go to the UCAR site at:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/

Steve

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Yeah MiamiensisWx most of the models have this making landfall in about 24hrs time as well. Interestingly recon finding some decent flight level winds well SW of the center, may find some higher weinds in the SE quadrant.

[jabman98]

Did I just hear TWC correctly. TX/LA landfall.

Our local AM radio (KTRH or KPRC in Houston - can't remember which I clicked on) on the 12 p.m. CT update said the same thing. So that was about an hour ago. I was in the car and they said it was moving fast, would hit more east of Houston on the TX/LA border and much earlier than expected - like tonight rather than tomorrow (Tue).

I heard the 11 a.m. update and they didn't say anything like that. So I came online to see what had changed, but it doesn't look like NHC is now putting it on the TX/LA border. Is it? Am I missing something?

Did NHC revise something for the media and alert systems?

Looks the same to me, Brazoria/Galveston. Nowhere NEAR the TX/LA border.

Well that's what I thought. That was TERRIBLE reporting and forecasting from whoever was doing that update. They almost made it sound like it was going to miss us except for some rain. Of course they followed it up with traffic reports saying the freeways were full with people leaving work early to prepare for the storm. Go figure.

I always go by NHC, but I'm in the car a lot and was hoping for a coherent track update based on NHC info. So was surprised it was so different when I got online and read it myself.

Galveston area strike appears to be the most probable solution.

And that means we'll be wet and windy here in Houston. We're already under a flood watch.

[HouTXmetro]

Impressive Inflow!! Maybe this is about to ramp up.

[dwg71]

Cloud tops are warming and no real convection burst in the past couple of hours. I really hope all we are dealing with is a minimal TS tomorrow. 40Kts or so.

[Stormcenter]

I don't understand how anyone can say this doesn't have a
decent chance of becoming a hurricane or that it cannot make
landfall along the TX/LA border. We are talking about tropical systems
here folks. They can be very unpredictable. Dolly did not go into
Mexico lake many on this board predicted. Heck even the NHC
had it going into Mexico. They kept on saying MX/TX border landfall and
wasn't even close to Mexican border.

[crazycajuncane]

I am not always sold on the Houston hit. Just look at what happened for Hurricane Rita. You could see the turn taking place for hours and I remember watching the news and they are forecasting Houston 8 hours out and the storm has clearly taken a turn for the TX / LA state line. In my history of watching storms I've noticed a lot of easterly turns as these things hit the coast. I expect it to hit above the Galveston area at this rate. Don't be surprised at the late turn.

[dwg71]

I don't understand how anyone can say this doesn't have a
decent chance of becoming a hurricane or that it cannot make
landfall along the TX/LA border. We are talking about tropical systems
here folks. They can be very unpredictable. Dolly did not go into
Mexico lake many on this board predicted. Heck even the NHC
had it going into Mexico. They kept on saying MX/TX border landfall and
wasn't even close to Mexican border.

I dont think anybody is discounting the possibility of a hurricane, but most informed forcasts state otherwise, plus it has not gotten much more intense today...if anything winds are down and pressures steady. I for one think it will move inland east of galveston, maybe as far as border, but not likely IMO.