ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Tireman4]

Again, I would stick with the NHC. They have done well in the past. They have this one right on target. Just my opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

KTRH 740 am used The Weather Channel for their forecasts. AM rush they have former on air met Terri Smith doing the forecasts from Atlanta, although they always chat as if she is in the same room.

So TWC saying TX/LA and KTRH saying TX/LA state line makes sense.


Edit TWC, not TWX.

[Frank2]

Ed still has a poor radar presentation, though it looks more organized on satellite:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no

the radar presentation seems to confirm the recon obs of nothing more than an "average" TS at this time, so, perhaps the organization is at the mid-levels, more than anything...

[HouTXmetro]

Ok... let's say it hits at the TX/LA border, the WNW steering will still bring the core over Greater Houston. The only question is will the eye pass in the Southern or Northern Metro, not that it matters.

[dwg71]

Ok... let's say it hits at the TX/LA border, the WNW steering will still bring the core over Greater Houston. The only question is will the eye pass in the Southern or Northern Metro, not that it matters.

"eye pass" ???

[HouTXmetro]

Ok... let's say it hits at the TX/LA border, the WNW steering will still bring the core over Greater Houston. The only question is will the eye pass in the Southern or Northern Metro, not that it matters.

"eye pass" ???

You know what I'm trying to say..... LLC

[KWT]

Still heading West right now, going to have to go at least 300 degrees from here on to hit the state border like some think, possible but it needs to make that move now. Even if it does hit further down the Texas coast which is more likely we will probably still see some effects near the state border from the NE quadrant.

This has got far more chance of being a hurricane then hitting the state border I reckon.

[MiamiensisWx]

If it moves WNW from its current position, the center would still make landfall on the entrance to Galveston Bay, which is north of Galveston and well SW of the Texas/Louisiana border. Additionally, if a Galveston Bay entrance strike verifies, the southern portion of the center would still cross Galveston. The current WNW movement does not necessarily lend ample support to a Golden Triangle landfall on SE Texas near the Louisiana state line. Click on the TPC forecast points in the following GOES visible loop to demonstrate my point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

This one will likely be a wind event mainly along the immediate coast, while precip/tornadoes is the inland threat, in my view.

[dwg71]

I do, know what you mean...

I think this will be more about the rain than the wind. I believe the storms we had yesterday might have more wind than what we will see from EDDY. But lets watch. I think the dry air will not allow much intensification.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok... let's say it hits at the TX/LA border, the WNW steering will still bring the core over Greater Houston. The only question is will the eye pass in the Southern or Northern Metro, not that it matters.

Probably won't have an eye, and a WNW motion would mean it would pass far enough North of HOU metro to spare immediate area from worst wind and rain.


On the TWC LA/TX thing. Steve Lyons almost always parrots NHC, and I find this snip in 1 pm CDT intermeidate advisory

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.

NHC may or may not be considering a small shift in forecast track. Recall how Franklin in the 5 am discussion mentioned how an oblique angle followed by Edouard, with it moving WNW and coast of Western Louisiana oriented West-Northwest means small error in track forecast can mean substantial error in landfall point.

[TTheriot1975]

It is already moving WNW according to NHC...as of 1 pm central time

[cycloneye]

18:00 ATCF Best Track: 40 kts.


AL, 05, 2008080418, , BEST, 0, 283N, 910W, 40, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EDOUARD, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[HouTXmetro]

I do, know what you mean...

I think this will be more about the rain than the wind. I believe the storms we had yesterday might have more wind than what we will see from EDDY. But lets watch. I think the dry air will not allow much intensification.

The structure is definately in place. I'm waiting for intensification barring another MSC racing toward the Gulf and sheering Ed like yesterday.

[Johnny]

Looks pretty much due west to me...

[KWT]

True TTheriot1975 though that was estimated and we didn't have recon to get a real good grip on exactly where it is. 3hr mean did seem a little further to the north but as has been mentioned WNW still puts this into TX and I'm willing to bet the center is wobbling about a little as well and may bend back t othe west in the next 6hrs.

Johnny, note the last few hours the system has indeed moved to the WNW according to that.

[cheezyWXguy]

I do, know what you mean...

I think this will be more about the rain than the wind. I believe the storms we had yesterday might have more wind than what we will see from EDDY. But lets watch. I think the dry air will not allow much intensification.

The structure is definately in place. I'm waiting for intensification barring another MSC racing toward the Gulf and sheering Ed like yesterday.

lol not to be nitpicky but, it is actually MCS. Mesoscale Convective System

[HouTXmetro]

Excellent tool Johnny

[Stormcenter]

True TTheriot1975 though that was estimated and we didn't have recon to get a real good grip on exactly where it is. 3hr mean did seem a little further to the north but as has been mentioned WNW still puts this into TX and I'm willing to bet the center is wobbling about a little as well and may bend back t othe west in the next 6hrs.

It's not suppose to "bend" back to west. The high above is steering wnw per the NHC and the models. This was anticipated since yesterday by the NHC. What do you think will make it bend back to the west?

[Tireman4]

Right. This is right on forecast from the NHC.

[Derek Ortt]

I don't understand how anyone can say this doesn't have a
decent chance of becoming a hurricane or that it cannot make
landfall along the TX/LA border. We are talking about tropical systems
here folks. They can be very unpredictable. Dolly did not go into
Mexico lake many on this board predicted. Heck even the NHC
had it going into Mexico. They kept on saying MX/TX border landfall and
wasn't even close to Mexican border.

Dolly missed Mexico by a whole 10 miles. It was a nearly perfect forecast

Like Dolly, this is a very high confidence track forecast