ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[cycloneye]

[jinftl]

With the center expected to reach the coast early Tuesday..meaning people would only have the rest of the day today to make necessary preparations (esp. daylight hours)...I would think that if the NHC felt this had a better chance than not of reaching hurricane status they would have upgraded the hurricane watch to a hurricane warning already.

Doing this would fall within the meaning of the warning...that hurricane conditions are likely within 24 hours.

By contrast, hurricane warnings were issued for south florida when katrina was still a 50 mph tropical storm and 18-24 hours from landfall.

[Sjones]

Here is the link to live webcams in Galveston

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/

[hicksta]

the outflow and structure is getting very organized. I agree could be a hurricane soon.

[Stormcenter]

If I lived along the NW gulf coast I'd be preparing for a hurricane, the stucture of this storm is tons better than it was yesterday.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

After Humberto you would thought people would have learned something about tropical systems by now. Oh sure Eddie may end up going in as only a TS but the possibility is still there that he may be more then that.

[HURAKAN]

For Ed to really ramp up, it needs to develop convection over the LLC. Right now it's partially exposed.

[KWT]

Convection lookslike its getting really hampered by the mid level dry air, not sure we will see that much strengthening now, structure is decent enough but convection is lacking and not being elped by the constant dragging in of dry air. If that does go aweay then it will ramp up pretty quickly but right now not sure it'll get that chance.

[HouTXmetro]

If I lived along the NW gulf coast I'd be preparing for a hurricane, the stucture of this storm is tons better than it was yesterday.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

After Humberto you would thought people would have learned something about tropical systems by now. Oh sure Eddie may end up going in as only a TS but the possibility is still there that he may be more then that.

The avg Joe in Houston doesn't really keep up with Hurricanes. Many Houstonians barely felt Humberto as most of the Heavy weather was well east of Houston.

[SouthFloridawx]

As far as the structure of the system is concerned, it is definitely improving throughout the day. It is becoming more symmetrical.

However as we can see there is still some Shear and dry air entrainment in the system. This is evident on Visible Imagery and on WV loop.

You can see the Dry air coming in from the North and affecting the system. It looks like this is putting a cap on those thunderstorms trying to vigorously develop.





Close up visible Ramsdis
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Water Vapor
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[Derek Ortt]

it needs an inner-core to intensify quickly... chance of a cane now probably less than 10%

[Steve]

>>the outflow and structure is getting very organized. I agree could be a hurricane soon.

While I agree about the overall structure (which I'd been saying since yesterday morning was improving), I don't think it's going to be a hurricane "soon." If Ed was just entering the Gulf down in the Yucatan Channel or the Florida Straits, that would be one thing. And while it's also quite possible that Ed will be further tightening at landfall tomorrow am, I don't see soon. I'd look for another convective burst before expecting any real deepening. That's just me and is subject, obviously, to the site disclaimer.

Steve

[cpdaman]

how could this "ramp up" with all the dry air to it's north and northwest, won't this dry air just bleed into the system.

also coastal flooding appears to me to be likely minor due to the size of the windfield and it's projected strength at landfall

[HouTXmetro]

Convection lookslike its getting really hampered by the mid level dry air, not sure we will see that much strengthening now, structure is decent enough but convection is lacking and not being elped by the constant dragging in of dry air. If that does go aweay then it will ramp up pretty quickly but right now not sure it'll get that chance.

Mositure envelope has been rapidly exapnding Westward so I think that problem is fading as we speak.

[KWT]

Yep Derek earlier I thought it may have a chance when those bnig storms reotated around the NW side but they've gone and dry air is now once again working its way back in. Probably landfall of 45-50kts looking best bet as of now unless something changes quickly.

[jinftl]

it seems the NHC errs on the side of caution and if they didn't upgrade to a hurricane warning earlier, they agree with you. Maybe a strong tropical storm but no hurricane at landfall.

it needs an inner-core to intensify quickly... chance of a cane now probably less than 10%

[Stormcenter]

How can anyway say this doesn't have at least a 50/50 chance to
become a hurricane?
I usually don't do this but I would say 60-40 that is does before landfall.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

I'm with Derek, a strong TS is more likely by the hour, maybe 70mph at most.

[HouTXmetro]

it seems the NHC errs on the side of caution and if they didn't upgrade to a hurricane warning earlier, they agree with you. Maybe a strong tropical storm but no hurricane at landfall.

it needs an inner-core to intensify quickly... chance of a cane now probably less than 10%

I just checked th IR and despite the good Vis presentation, the IR indicates that this is a very weak system. Probably not strengthening. You guys are probably right about not reaching Cane Status....

With that said I need to prepare to be at work tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Latest pass was 1001 mb. Edouard is not undergoing rapid intensification. Not even undergoing not so rapid intensification.


Unofficially, if anything, I think NHC forecast is a tad generous for Edouard, and we'll all enjoy a beneficial day of rain during a breezy day tomorrow.


Again, however, course of least regret, take NHC forecast and add a Saffir-Simpson category to it. Always better safe than sorry.

[jinftl]

The NHC said it in their 11am discussion:

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

How can anyway say this doesn't have at least a 50/50 chance to
become a hurricane?
I usually don't do this but I would say 60-40 that is does before landfall.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html