ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Evil Jeremy]

...Edouard gradually becoming better organized...tropical storm
force winds reach the coast of Louisiana...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the mouth of the
Mississippi River westward to Port Oconnor Texas.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from west of Intracoastal City
Louisiana to Port O'Connor.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 28.3 north...longitude 91.4 west or about 135
miles...220 km...south-southeast of Lafayette Louisiana and about
215 miles...350 km...east-southeast of Galveston Texas.


Edouard is moving toward the west near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A turn to
the west-northwest is expect to occur tonight...and the center of
Edouard should be very near the Upper Texas coast by midday
tomorrow.


Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Although Edouard has not strengthened yet today...it is
becoming better organized and is expected to be very near hurricane
strength by the time it reaches the coastline during the day
tomorrow.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center...and were recently reported near Cocodrie
Louisiana.


The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft was 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


A storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected
in the warning area in areas of onshore winds.


Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches in some Louisiana coastal parishes. Accumulations of 4 to 6
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible
over southeastern Texas.


Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern Louisiana
and the Upper Texas coast tonight.


Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...28.3 N...91.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
PM CDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Shockwave]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

[Stormcenter]

Who wants to jump on the "Hurricane Eddie" bandwagon with me?
There is still a lot of room.

It just has too much going for it and not enough against it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tibits from the new discussion:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD.

STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER.

24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT...JUST INLAND

[Stormcenter]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Yes...that's a good possibility. IMO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cloud pattern and outflow on the east and south side is very good. In fact it is starting to look very classic over all on visible. 1# You have a "southern outflow channel" being formed by ULL to its south, 2# You have warm 85+ degree waters under this system. I would not let your guard down with this system for a second.

Now what is against it is what has been shown to be mid level dry air, this stops the development of intense convection. This stops the inflow(convengence) that helps it strengthen. But you also got as you look at mid level shear maps it is starting to form all around it, that is impressive. It is not cutting through the storm but starting to help its outflow and help the storm over all. The upper level shear is still some what of a problem at 10-12 knots. Which is still helping to force some of that mid level dry air into the cyclone.

Now I would not be suprize if that shear went up over the system, but a weak Anticyclone could develop if enough "outflow" and warm heat being forced to the upper levels. In which case could kind of shield our cyclone. As it moves at the coast I expect it to tighten up also. So a hurricane can still be expected.

[KWT]

Once again the NHC still forecasting 60kts, very interesting to see indeed though whether or not it actually makes the leap who knows!

Its actually quite tricky knowing exactly what strength it will be when it comes inland because as att says there are various factors in play here.

Pressure still is slowly dropping now at 999.9mbs extrp.

[jinftl]

it is safe to say landfall will occur in the warning area....no way to be able to pinpoint it like that now....that's how people in the warning area end up letting their guard down too early....

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

[Shockwave]

Who wants to jump on the "Hurricane Eddie" bandwagon with me?
There is still a lot of room.

It just has too much going for it and not enough against it.

I'll jump on and more then likely fall off. Heck, I had it almost at hurricane strength with my prediction and you can see what happened there.

[BigA]

The slow organization is visible on the weather.com radar from south louisiana. Note the slow increase in rain near the center. http://www.weather.com/weather/map/inte ... om=hp_news

[HouTXmetro]

it is safe to say landfall will occur in the warning area....no way to be able to pinpoint it like that now....that's how people in the warning area end up letting their guard down too early....

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Updated track is still a Beeline though Galveston Island....But Beaumont will feel Eduardo no matter what so be prepared.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[KWT]

I think its still wise to prepare for a minimal hurricane, if it does get upto 60kts then the wind damage probably won't be all that much different to a 65kt hurricane.

[Wx_Warrior]

IMHO...NHC is right on this one with landfall near Galvez Bay...SETX getting tons of rain and wind.

[Shockwave]

it is safe to say landfall will occur in the warning area....no way to be able to pinpoint it like that now....that's how people in the warning area end up letting their guard down too early....

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

I'm speaking on a term of chasing hurricanes. I've learned that if you chase storms, you make your landfall prediction 48 hours in advance of the storm to get setup and all. Mine is in the 24 hours time frame, but it's a prediction nevertheless...

[jinftl]

It is important to keep in mind that with weaker-type systems...meaning tropical storms of any strength..the worst weather can be removed from the actual center....exact landfall is not as important as with a major hurricane where the question of who will get in the narrow eye wall is crucial.

it is safe to say landfall will occur in the warning area....no way to be able to pinpoint it like that now....that's how people in the warning area end up letting their guard down too early....

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Updated track is still a Beeline though Galveston Island....But Beaumont will feel Eduardo no matter what so be prepared.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

['CaneFreak]

it is safe to say landfall will occur in the warning area....no way to be able to pinpoint it like that now....that's how people in the warning area end up letting their guard down too early....

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Updated track is still a Beeline though Galveston Island....But Beaumont will feel Eduardo no matter what so be prepared.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Yeah....very near the Sabine Pass area....just be ready...don't rely on information from us..type in your zip code on weather.gov and read your forecast area discussions and such....your local emergency officials are the people you need to be talking to...not us...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wind field starting to expand. That is a sign of something. Keep a close eye on the recon, if pressures start going down it is going for it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center...and were recently reported near Cocodrie
Louisiana.

It is starting to expand outward now!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tireman4]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Umm, where did you get that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[HouTXmetro]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center...and were recently reported near Cocodrie
Louisiana.

It is starting to expand outward now!!!!!!!!!!!!

Still need Deep convection, that has yet to occur.. Do you all think we see some explosive convection with D-Max tonight?