ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Tireman4]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

[/quote]

Updated track is still a Beeline though Galveston Island....But Beaumont will feel Eduardo no matter what so be prepared.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents[/quote]

Yeah....very near the Sabine Pass area....just be ready...don't rely on information from us..type in your zip code on weather.gov and read your forecast area discussions and such....your local emergency officials are the people you need to be talking to...not us...[/quote]


Agreed. The official forcast track is Galveston.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[americanrebel]

So my prediction of Sabine Pass seems to be darn close. Now hopefully Eduoard will only be a Cat. 1 and not a Cat. 2 or 3 at landfall. I hope that part of my prediction is wrong.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center...and were recently reported near Cocodrie
Louisiana.

It is starting to expand outward now!!!!!!!!!!!!

Still need Deep convection, that has yet to occur.. Do you all think we see some explosive convection with D-Max tonight?

oh but it is getting there alright!!!!!!

[Stormcenter]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Umm, where did you get that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Well we all know tropicals storms never follow the exact track as projected. It's either going to the south or north of that projected track. I personally would say north....like Beaumont maybe. IMO

[Shockwave]

So is it safe to say that Beaumont, TX; is where landfall might be at tomorrow?

Umm, where did you get that?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

From looking at the location of the storm and the movement of it. The storm is very close to the coast of LA and when it turns WNWward, I see it hitting NE TX.

[jinftl]

With no hurricane warning issued at 5pm, the NHC doesn't at all seem to be expecting more than probably a strong tropical storm maybe approaching 75mph or so at most.

If they saw signs of explosive development, a warning would be in effect already. By comparison, South Florida was under a hurricane warning when katrina was a 50 mph storm and landfall was almost 24 hours away.

So my prediction of Sabine Pass seems to be darn close. Now hopefully Eduoard will only be a Cat. 1 and not a Cat. 2 or 3 at landfall. I hope that part of my prediction is wrong.

[Tireman4]

No offense ( I am not a meteorologist..amateur or professional..I am just a librarian and a historian and not even close to being as smart as most of you), but the NHC has gotten right with Dolly and did really doggone well last year. I think, and this is my opinion, that I am going to stick with the NHC. It is like a great pair of jeans or good running shoes. It just feels better.

[kurtpage]

This is a few hours old...but should be getting a new one in about 2 and a half hours:

04/1745 UTC 28.2N 91.0W T3.0/3.0 EDOUARD -- Atlantic Ocean

[Weatherfreak14]

This is going to be really intresting, im trying to follow it as much as i can but i go lot of work to do... I think the way it is looking now by 11pm it maybe up to 55-65mph strength so i think we will have a Hurricane on our hands by landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

Keep in mind that ALL tropical cyclones are NOT a single point or coordinate. If Edouard makes landfall in the vicinity of Galveston as I expect, areas immediately to the north and east will experience the effects, though the maximum sustained winds will be limited to a small and localized area along the immediate coast (like most TCs, including hurricanes). Gusty winds, precipitation, and possible tornadoes may occur away from the center. Even a compact landfalling hurricane or major TC like Humberto or Andrew will produce strong winds and other effects away from the actual landfall location.

As an aside, Pompano Beach Airport reported gusts to ~98 mph during Andrew in '92!

[Wx_Warrior]

Absolutely. Everyone in SETX will feel Edouard. Houston, Galvz, Sabine Pass, Beaumont, etc...It's not going to start going north this way, etc, etc.

We don't need to challenge the advisories. Stop with the Cat 2-3 info...Nothing has been put out that Edouard would become of that. (off soapbox).

[americanrebel]

No offense ( I am not a meteorologist..amateur or professional..I am just a librarian and a historian and not even close to being as smart as most of you), but the NHC has gotten right with Dolly and did really doggone well last year. I think, and this is my opinion, that I am going to stick with the NHC. It is like a great pair of jeans or good running shoes. It just feels better.

The NHC did not do to well with systems in the GoM to well last year, only one storm needs to be named to tell you that, and that is Humberto. So the NHC is a great source but for systems that form and stay close to land it is all really a guessing game.

[RL3AO]

URNT12 KNHC 042114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052008
A. 04/20:44:30Z
B. 28 deg 12 min N
091 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb 1427 m
D. 34 kt
E. 228 deg 015 nm
F. 307 deg 039 kt
G. 228 deg 033 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 16 C/ 1560 m
J. 20 C/ 1505 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0305A EDOUARD1 OB 13
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NW QUAD 19:08:30 Z
RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.

[jinftl]

Chart shows NHC latest forecast max wind probablities....they have a 72% chance the storms stays a tropical storm with forecast max winds of 70 mph. Hurrican chance is 22% and weakening to a depression is 6% chance.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/151733.shtml?table?large#contents

[americanrebel]

Keep in mind that ALL tropical cyclones are NOT a single point or coordinate. If Edouard makes landfall in the vicinity of Galveston as I expect, areas immediately to the north and east will experience the effects, though the maximum sustained winds will be limited to a small and localized area along the immediate coast (like most TCs, including hurricanes). Gusty winds, precipitation, and possible tornadoes may occur away from the center. Even a compact landfalling hurricane or major TC like Humberto or Andrew will produce strong winds and other effects away from the actual landfall location.

they have already said that TS force winds expand 70 miles, so that is not a small area, already being felt in parts of Louisiana, so this system has some force behind it even though many of you don't want to admit it.

A strong TS can still cause a lot of damage to areas that are still damaged by Rita. Some building that were affected by Rita are still not being repaired and any strong gusts could possibly cause them to completely collapse, yes they are not inhabited, but would still cause some damage.

[WmE]

RADAR INDICATES CIRCULAR BANDING CONSISTENT WITH FIX ON EAST SIDE, 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.[/b]

That's interesting. Seems it's getting better organized.

[Shockwave]

Yeah....very near the Sabine Pass area....just be ready...don't rely on information from us..type in your zip code on weather.gov and read your forecast area discussions and such....your local emergency officials are the people you need to be talking to...not us...

Sorry for the confusion I caused, but I don't in Beaumont. I was just trying to make a prediction and help out my forecasting skills. Sorry.

[oyster_reef]

No offense ( I am not a meteorologist..amateur or professional..I am just a librarian and a historian and not even close to being as smart as most of you), but the NHC has gotten right with Dolly and did really doggone well last year. I think, and this is my opinion, that I am going to stick with the NHC. It is like a great pair of jeans or good running shoes. It just feels better.

LOL Trust me tireman4... you are smarter than most here
good post

[americanrebel]

:uarrow:

Absolutely. Everyone in SETX will feel Edouard. Houston, Galvz, Sabine Pass, Beaumont, etc...It's not going to start going north this way, etc, etc.

We don't need to challenge the advisories. Stop with the Cat 2-3 info...Nothing has been put out that Edouard would become of that. (off soapbox).

I did not say it was going to be a Cat 2-3, I just said that I hope my prediction from early yesterday does not come true. I predicted a Cat. 3 making landfall at Sabine Pass. I just stated that my prediction about landfall looks to be pretty good.

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde: 999mb with a 12kt wind.