ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it can get some minus 70-80 convection over that center. I would seriously expect this to go for it, because that will show it has broke the the midlevel dry air "cap" that has been holding down its horses. We will see...

[Steve]

Good deal Aric. I think you are one of the more underappreciated posters around here. Looking forward to some GR3 work and other things you throw together tonight.

Hazy and breezy in SELA.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi 5 pm EDT update a rant about NHC being slow to issue a TWO for Eduardo late last week, and global warming. No new weather updates. I was wondering if he'd affirm or back down off of 980 mb. Nothing doing.



My unofficial guess- the NHC is probably darned close, and I'd follow NHC, local NWS and state/county/city EMS advice and orders.

Following NHC, adding a Saffir Simpson category as a safety factor, a strong tropical storm, plan for a high end Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 to be on the safe side.

[Aric Dunn]

we are also doing live coverage tonight as well, all night and up till landfall

[KWT]

Also the interesting thing is recon fixed a heading of about 265 degrees between the two center passes it seems which will buy it a little more time over the gulf...

[weatherguru18]

we are also doing live coverage tonight as well, all night and up till landfall

Same here. I'm at work now. I'll leave about 7pm and be back at 2am.

[Wx_Warrior]

'High end Cat 1 or Cat 2'?

[vaffie]

Latest Dvorak number--up to a 3
04/1745 UTC 28.2N 91.0W T3.0/3.0 EDOUARD -- Atlantic Ocean

[Stormcenter]

Hmmm that vortex is interesting in that it does hint that an eyewall may try to be setting up, which normally does start to occur between 45-50kts in many systems.

The other noteable thing is pressure is still dropping as well it seems.

Therefore does look like it strengthening, NHC really are nailing this storm at the present moment.

Let's be honest here. If they (NHC) gave it a 20% chance at becoming a hurricane at landfall and it does then they did not "nail" it.

[HouTXmetro]

'High end Cat 1 or Cat 2'?

What makes you believe that?

[Ed Mahmoud]

'High end Cat 1 or Cat 2'?

Adding a Saffir-Simpson category to NHC forecast, simply as a safety factor. I don't actually think we'd be a high end Cat 1, I think NHC is correct, just course of least regret, plan for a hurricane.


Edit to add- hope for the best, plan for the worst.

I heard it repeated in Dolly, when people stayed at hotels in Port Isabel that wound up with broken windows and water in the lobby - "we heard just a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane".


Like when I do top of cement calculations in old wellbores where a temperature of cement bond log wasn't run. I use a 30% washout factor over bit size, as a safety factor, so I don't over-estimate top of cement and maybe perforate a new zone in bare casing.

[americanrebel]

http://www.theadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080804/NEWS01/80804024

This is from the Lafayette, La. Daily Advertiser. It isn't mandatory evacuations yet, but precautionary.

[Wx_Warrior]

From the post above by Ed M...

"Following NHC, adding a Saffir Simpson category as a safety factor, a strong tropical storm, plan for a high end Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 to be on the safe side."

[KWT]

Yeah but equally they have been saying stormcenter that this could be near hurricane strength and 60kts is close enough to hurricane status for it to be a threat...the 20% they used were from thier statistical guidence....its not a personal forecast from the NHC so to speak. Only one of the models used had this at hurricane status, the other 4 were TS strength between 40-50kts.

[Cape Verde]

I'm just pleased that none of the models permit an Allison to hang around and duimp a couple of feet of rain. Edouard will do what he will do and head toward the Alamo and not be seen again.

As long as I don't lose power (meaning AIR CONDITIONING) I can clean up whatever mess he makes and be thankful for the rain.

[RL3AO]

Also the interesting thing is recon fixed a heading of about 265 degrees between the two center passes it seems which will buy it a little more time over the gulf...

More like 255.

Movement of 256 at 8.62 knots between VDMs. Not surprising it is wobbling because of the increased convection over the center.

[Evil Jeremy]

we are also doing live coverage tonight as well, all night and up till landfall

U talking about a online web talk show like "Talkin Tropics" was?

[americanrebel]

Also the interesting thing is recon fixed a heading of about 265 degrees between the two center passes it seems which will buy it a little more time over the gulf...

More like 255.

Movement of 256 at 8.62 knots between VDMs. Not surprising it is wobbling because of the increased convection over the center.

Isn't 256 WSW?

[Wx_Warrior]

Read where the High could weaken causing a NW turn...Another interesting twist with Lil Eddie

[Kludge]

Bastardi 5 pm EDT update a rant about NHC being slow to issue a TWO for Eduardo late last week, and global warming. No new weather updates. I was wondering if he'd affirm or back down off of 980 mb. Nothing doing.

Did you scroll down for his 2PM? He still expects Ed Jr. to tighten up, with hurricane conditions 25 mi from landfall. He says he's working tomorrow, or he'd do a recon by car.