ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[njweather]

From the post above by Ed M...

"Following NHC, adding a Saffir Simpson category as a safety factor, a strong tropical storm, plan for a high end Cat 1/borderline Cat 2 to be on the safe side."

I think that's a fair technique to ensure personal safety.

Wind gusts, poor drainage, areas of debris, and large trees greatly amplify the destructiveness of storms. But none of those factors matter when it comes to designating a storm...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quitting time. Expecting a strong TS, but made preps for a Cat 1 to be on the safe side.

[KWT]

Also the interesting thing is recon fixed a heading of about 265 degrees between the two center passes it seems which will buy it a little more time over the gulf...

More like 255.

Movement of 256 at 8.62 knots between VDMs. Not surprising it is wobbling because of the increased convection over the center.

Ah my bad I didn't know it was that far to the WSw, thats quite a decent wobble to the south and buys it a little more time. As you with strong convection developing not all that surprising.

[Stormcenter]

Yeah but equally they have been saying stormcenter that this could be near hurricane strength and 60kts is close enough to hurricane status for it to be a threat...the 20% they used were from thier statistical guidence....its not a personal forecast from the NHC so to speak. Only one of the models used had this at hurricane status, the other 4 were TS strength between 40-50kts.

You are correct and I agree.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi 5 pm EDT update a rant about NHC being slow to issue a TWO for Eduardo late last week, and global warming. No new weather updates. I was wondering if he'd affirm or back down off of 980 mb. Nothing doing.

Did you scroll down for his 2PM? He still expects Ed Jr. to tighten up, with hurricane conditions 25 mi from landfall. He says he's working tomorrow, or he'd do a recon by car.

Yes I did. I was a little disappointed his 5pm didn't address Edouard at all except to criticize TWC for not having the Gulf mentioned in Friday's tropical weather outlook.

[hwego7]

Quitting time. Expecting a strong TS, but made preps for a Cat 1 to be on the safe side.

I thought you said you always add 1 category to the official NHC forecast to be safe, which means about a cat 2.

[Aric Dunn]

first off sorry for the crudeness....

but this area in white that i have circled is very interesting to... after a while of watching this systems over the years develop on radar you see this from time to time .. but that is the beginnings of a strong burst of convection . that strong cell will wrap around and as it approaches the Sw side watch for a even larger burst of convection( assuming that is what i believe it is).

over all structure has for sure improved as mentioned by recon and it is very apparent on mostly the NO radar as it can see the NE side better than the Lake charles radar, which has more banding showing, the lake charles site is slowly picking up on some interesting details.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd be making preps for a 85-100mph hurricane, should have time to get that high though unless it really explodes in a big way in the next few hours, there certainly is some bursting occuring again mind you.

[Recurve]

This storm now looks exactly like an ear. Left ear, facing west.

The last visible may be deceiving, but it seems really starting to wrap/spin up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Shockwave]

Thanks for that info Aric. That's pretty cool. What causes that burst of convection? And how can you tell that is what is going to happen or will come close to happening?

[Aric Dunn]

there it is showing up on satellite now... that cell i mean
\

[KWT]

Aric agreed, will be interesting to see if it succeds this time around because a similar thing happened about 6hrs ago but the mid level dry air eventually weakened the convection. Whilst the convection is on the NW side it acts as a buffer to some extent and allows cells to pop better in the circulation.

[HURAKAN]

RECON is now going back to the center. I think we could see another decrease in the pressure.

[americanrebel]

RECON is now going back to the center. I think we could see another decrease in the pressure.

I think we will see a decrease in pressure to around 995 and winds around 55 Kts.

[Aric Dunn]

RECON is now going back to the center. I think we could see another decrease in the pressure.

yeah ...as that cell expands and wraps around a slight decrease in pressure is very possible in the short term .,.and the long term depending on the convection pressure should continue to drop

[RL3AO]

Nice overshooting top.

Could be down to 997 or so.

[Shockwave]

RECON is now going back to the center. I think we could see another decrease in the pressure.

I think we will see a decrease in pressure to around 995 and winds around 55 Kts.

Getting closer to my prediction of 60-65 mph winds! Too bad I was off by an hour or two...

[bayoubebe]

For a tropical storm, it looked pretty rough in Grand Isle earlier. Check out the reporter's hair in the wind.

http://www.wwltv.com/video/news-index.html?nvid=269508

[Evil Jeremy]

It always seems like the Advisories come in just before something interesting happens, like the now popping convection. I think we should see a small pressure drop of 2-3 MB when Recon crosses the center again.

[KWT]

Yep pressure should drop a touch as the convection deepens close to the center.

Aric, for the first time we've got overshooting tops near the center, should help to whip up the winds again and also deepen the system.