ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[americanrebel]

I was wondering how many of you guys think that the landfall projection of morning will be too early. I think it will be either late afternoon or early evening at the earliest.

[93superstorm]

Deepest convection yet starting to fire up very colse to llc:

[Aric Dunn]

Yep pressure should drop a touch as the convection deepens close to the center.

Aric, for the first time we've got overshooting tops near the center, should help to whip up the winds again and also deepen the system.

yeah .. when i saw that cell develop on radar it was pretty good indicator something has changed within the system that allowed that to develop since before there was nothing that intense near the center. it was most likely the fact that dry air is slowly decreasing.

[Wx_Warrior]

And later tonight, Eddie Munster will fight thru some 'downtime'. I'm still going with 60% TS and 40% minimal Cat 1 between Galv Bay & PA.

[jinftl]

There really isn't too much 'long term' left for the storm to intensify....landfall is forecast in about 18 hours....it needs to start wrapping up quickly and continuously to even get to the 70 mph or so tropical storm that it is forecast to be.

The improved satellite presentation which we have seen for at least 12 hours has not translated much into lower pressue and higher winds. Recon may find data that shows that the pressure is down and winds are up....but the forecast from the NHC has given no indication they expect anything but steady increase in strength towards strong ts/cat 1.

This time tomorrow, this thing should be a rainmaker inland over Texas.

RECON is now going back to the center. I think we could see another decrease in the pressure.

yeah ...as that cell expands and wraps around a slight decrease in pressure is very possible in the short term .,.and the long term depending on the convection pressure should continue to drop

[Sanibel]

Obvious dry air diminishment in NW quadrant.

[KWT]

If the WSW movement carries on for any length of time then it may push the landfall back a little but right now it may just be a wobble on a mainly westerly path.

Can't deny that its deep convection near the center now for the first time, now the key thing is to see if we can get anymore convective bursts like that one over the next few hours...

Remember this is a small cyclone therefore prone to quick changes.

[HouTXmetro]

Dmin will tell the tale... that should be happening soon right?

[KWT]

Does look that way Sanibel. Of course I want to see whether it can hold it this time because it did go through a similar bursting spell about 6-9hrs ago.

[Aric Dunn]

so far 999mb ..

[americanrebel]

so far 999mb ..

Come on drop another 4 mb. LOL

I know I have dry humor.

[KWT]

Yep its dropped about 0.7mbs since the last pass, not a big drop but its a drop all the same and big drops shouldn't occur yet as the convection only went up near the LLC about 30-60 mins ago

[kurtpage]

Sorry Steve....had to do this!


999MB

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, I am in Galveston now. I will continue to post updates from the island as the storm pushes closer and closer overnight.

Right now it is partly sunny and hot with only a slight hint of a breeze.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok, I am in Galveston now. I will continue to post updates from the island as the storm pushes closer and closer overnight.

Right now it is partly sunny and hot with only a slight hint of a breeze.

That was quick!!!

[Wx_Warrior]

It won't be "early evening at the earliest"...

[KWT]

Ed's pressure does indeed seem to be 999mbs and wind speeds still only support 40kts at the surface depsite obviously getting a better presentation again.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Sorry Steve....had to do this!


999MB

The storm maybe looking better, but I believe most of the signs of "strengthing" will be it expanding its wind field. The question is now will this have enough time to form the eye and use what it has?

Also these little pressure drops are nothing to turn heads with yet.

[kurtpage]

Sorry Steve....had to do this!


999MB

The storm maybe looking better, but I believe most of the signs of "strengthing" will be it expanding its wind field. The question is now will this have enough time to form the eye and use what it has?

Also these little pressure drops are nothing to turn heads with yet.

Not sure if it has enough time either....this was in reference to Stevetampa saying that this was dead after a 1006 MB pressure reading last night

[hwego7]

recon is reporting winds have increased to 50mph.