ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

It's getting pretty close to shore...it may come in around Sabine Pass, or at least the "center," may start to move over land in this vicinity.

Yes that is what I'm seeing but I'm not an expert.

[funster]

The burst does appear to be quite impressive.
Tim

Ed's a tiny dude but the tiny ones can really tighten up at the last minute.

[fasterdisaster]

It's a little system....very small.

It wouldn't be that small if there wasn't absolutely nothing on the southern half.

[crazycajuncane]

Yes, crazycajuncane, the breeze is nice. You should feel the gusts we're starting to get down here in Vermilion. Light rain starting to fall as well and very gusty.

Looks like Ed's giving ya'll a free show! It's pretty windy here. Really picked up in the last half hour. The outer bands want to touch so bad.

[Sanibel]

It wouldn't be that small if there wasn't absolutely nothing on the southern half.

Which is exactly why it doesn't have good structure.

[Stormcenter]

It's amazing how we all see something different when comes
to what direction Eddie is moving in. I've seen post saying he was moving W,WSW,WNW,NW,N and yes even NE motion in this evening's posts.
What I do see is he is a lot closer to the coast of LA. then I anticipated him being.

[crazycajuncane]

It's amazing how we all see something different when comes
to what direction Eddie is moving in. I've seen post saying he was moving W,WSW,WNW,NW,N and yes even NE motion in this evening's posts.
What I do see is he is a lot closer to the coast of LA. then I anticipated him being.

It's all about perception! Maybe at one point in time it moved all those directions (minus NE).

Hey but its all fun! We're all enjoying this crazy little storm and once it's over we may be done for the season!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is a closer look at where the center probably is..

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3029/273 ... 96.jpg?v=0

If the WNW motion continues overnight, then this will come ashore very close to the 10pm NHC track (give or take 20 miles north or south). The heaviest bands of wind/rain will be near and north of where this makes landfall though, with lesser winds and rains to the south UNLESS more southern convection can fire overnight. Definitely an interesting day ahead from the northern half of Galveston Island all the way eastward to near Cameron, LA.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS COASTAL SRN LA -- TS EDOUARD TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050402Z - 050630Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS DURING
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN STEP WITH WNWWD JOG OF STORM CENTER. AS A
RESULT...SMALL ENVELOPE OF FAVORABLE WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC -- AND
THEREFORE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...IS PENETRATING
INLAND. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MRGL ATTM BUT IS INCREASING...AND WW
MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

LIX VWP IS TOO FAR FROM CENTER TO SAMPLE THESE WINDS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO GIVEN FCST TRACK OF SYSTEM...BUT INDICATES HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE THAT SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH LARGER SPEEDS INVOF CENTRAL LA
COAST. LCH/POE VWP SAMPLING WILL REMAIN DISTANT AND IN NW QUADRANT
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...MODIFIED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST 0-1
KM SRH 100-200 J/KG SPREADING INLAND. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR BEFORE
NOW -- OTHER THAN RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF WINDS -- HAS BEN LACK OF
DISCRETE/CELLULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER..REFLECTIVITY
ANIMATIONS SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH AS OF 330Z...MOVING NWWD TOWARD ATCHAFALAYA BAY
AND POINT AU FER REGION. OTHER DISCRETE/ROTATING CELLS MAY FORM IN
SEWD EXTENSION OF SAME CONVERGENCE BAND...OVER MIDDLE/OUTER SECTORS
OF NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS INLAND HAS BEGUN
DIABATICALLY COOLING WITH INCREASING SBCINH...HIGH THETAE BOUNDARY
LAYER PROFILES NEAR COAST SUGGEST EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL
REMAIN ROOTED AT SFC...WITH AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO SPIRAL CONVERGENCE LINES.
OVERALL SUPERCELLULAR COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN LIMITED
BREADTH OF FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES.

REF NHC ADVISORIES -- E.G. WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC -- FOR LATEST
TROPICAL WATCH/WARNING AND TRACK/INTENSITY FCST DETAILS ON EDOUARD.

..EDWARDS.. 08/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

29729302 30239277 29919124 29829055 29319029 29059029
29019036 29109059 29049068 29049096 29119088 29179098
29229122 29329131 29429119 29519137 29539152 29639161
29739166 29709184 29569171 29479182 29579205 29549225
29579262

[RL3AO]

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection.

[HouTXmetro]

wondering what kind of winds they will find in the Heavy convection?

[TTheriot1975]

OK...where is the recon flight now...I am not good at all about reading all those lines with numbers in the recon thread. What are you experienced ones finding out?

[RL3AO]

OK...where is the recon flight now...I am not good at all about reading all those lines with numbers in the recon thread. What are you experienced ones finding out?

Do you have Google Earth?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ge/Recon_Data_for_the_Atlantic_Basin.kmz

[TTheriot1975]

Looking at the convection...it is strengthening right now...and my area will be on the dirty side of whatever it will be tonight to tomorrow morning...just picked up all the stuff in my backyard...thank goodness we have good lighting back there.

[physicx07]

They are sampling pretty far to the east of the center right now.

OK...where is the recon flight now...I am not good at all about reading all those lines with numbers in the recon thread. What are you experienced ones finding out?

[kurtpage]

OK...where is the recon flight now...I am not good at all about reading all those lines with numbers in the recon thread. What are you experienced ones finding out?

We are posting the images in the Recon thread....

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102265&p=1759511#p1759511

[vaffie]

OK...where is the recon flight now...I am not good at all about reading all those lines with numbers in the recon thread. What are you experienced ones finding out?

It's just about to exit the Louisiana coastline now heading roughly for the center. 36 knots flight level.

[LaBreeze]

Steady hard drizzle and winds are more gusty now. Lightning also is being seen around here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think my last center location may have been a tad too far south. Here is a new one with the current and expected motion added to show where this will probably go by tomorrow (if there are no wobbles)...

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3115/273 ... 67.jpg?v=0

BTW - Convection seems to be on the increase on the storm's SW side: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.