ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

As crazy as it looks, it really does seem to be moving towards SW LA

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes


grrrr...... looks like the tightly bunched models were ALL wrong!! All hail the mighty (and maligned) CLPS!!!

The Canadian model may have hit the jackpot.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like it did wobble northward. In that case it might end up a little east of where I said but I'm still not conceding a Louisiana landfall.

Yes, I know, I'm stubborn.

[HURAKAN]

Lowest pressure so far is 1000.7 mb but they aren't anywhere near the center.

Wrong and correct.

051330 2833N 09206W 8450 01547 0107 +146 +146 200028 029 038 009 00

1010.7 mb but far from center!

[mattpetre]

For sure I don't see how 1pm tomorrow comes into the picture for landfall anymore...

[HouTXmetro]

Center is on the SW of convection so west of LA is my call... Between High Island and Port Author.

[fasterdisaster]

Lowest pressure so far is 1000.7 mb but they aren't anywhere near the center.

Wrong and correct.

051330 2833N 09206W 8450 01547 0107 +146 +146 200028 029 038 009 00

1010.7 mb but far from center!

Sorry.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like it did wobble northward. In that case it might end up a little east of where I said but I'm still not conceding a Louisiana landfall.

Yes, I know, I'm stubborn.

Hang in there fasterdisaster......crazier things have happened.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As crazy as it looks, it really does seem to be moving towards SW LA

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes


grrrr...... looks like the tightly bunched models were ALL wrong!! All hail the mighty (and maligned) CLPS!!!

I suspect all those models, tightly clustered within about 20 miles either side of Galveston, were initialized with the old center before the reformation further North and maybe a touch Northeast.

[HURAKAN]

999.6 mb but not near the center!

[Normandy]

I encourage you guys to loop this radar and look at where the center is....it is still a good ways offshore (well not a good ways, but saying its near the coastline is fairly inaccurate).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Shows it fairly well. Center is located near the southernmost part of the curling rain bands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is where I estimate the center to currently be, and the arrows point toward where it is going if the WNW motion continues: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3017/273 ... dd.jpg?v=0

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mattpetre]

I wonder how many Pro Mets will be dismayed in the morning if Ed is already ashore and winding down when they wake up.

[cheezyWXguy]

As crazy as it looks, it really does seem to be moving towards SW LA

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes


grrrr...... looks like the tightly bunched models were ALL wrong!! All hail the mighty (and maligned) CLPS!!!

I dont know. It seems like its going to be inbetween houston and the tx/la border, a little closer to houston. I dont know why, but for some reason that radar throughout the entire day has been showing ed moving further north than other radars. Maybe it has something to do with the location of the radar or the angle it is projecting into the storm. Nonetheless, it looks like radar presentation is rapidly improving

[Normandy]

Yes EWG, that is exactly where the center is.

[bayoubebe]

As crazy as it looks, it really does seem to be moving towards SW LA

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=lch&loop=yes


grrrr...... looks like the tightly bunched models were ALL wrong!! All hail the mighty (and maligned) CLPS!!!

No surprises there, it wouldn't be the first time, such it is with nature.
Southwest Louisiana is already getting much of this storm. I know the eye isn't quite there, but they are getting some of the other messy stuff associated with it. I hope they were prepared.

IMHO, the center still looks like it is going into Texas and nearing Houston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

999.6 mb but not near the center!

I missed that somehow on the recon thread...

Edit HDOB12 not on thread yet.

[TexasSam]

The only thing I can think of for that movement is that the center has relocated north again...

[HouTXmetro]

EWG I think you are right

[Texashawk]

Here is where I estimate the center to currently be, and the arrows point toward where it is going if the WNW motion continues: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3017/273 ... dd.jpg?v=0

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wait... you think the center is in the middle of all that rain? What's all that empty space that the rain bands are spinning around??

[fasterdisaster]

Here is where I estimate the center to currently be, and the arrows point toward where it is going if the WNW motion continues: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3017/273 ... dd.jpg?v=0

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Wait... you think the center is in the middle of all that rain? What's all that empty space that the rain bands are spinning around??

Like I said, a dry slot. And it's not in the middle of rain.