ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[ROCK]

:roll: NHC had landfall pretty much set at Galveston, but yet again, we got landfall east of that...Same story with Humberto

25 years and counting since last major.....been so long I cant even remember the last official landfalling system on Galveston...maybe Allison.....any rate nice rain event for today it looks like and it will be greeted with open arms....

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Do we expect this thing to get worse for Beaumont as far as wind/rain as this thing makes it's track wnw. Has not done much here in Lumberton. I have seen stronger afternoon thunder showers.

Not much wind expected in Beaumont or Lumberton with a few gusts to 40 mph. Additional rainfall of a couple of inches appears likely.

[Chacor]

:roll: NHC had landfall pretty much set at Galveston, but yet again, we got landfall east of that...Same story with Humberto

They always tell you never to follow the exact line and to follow the cone. Landfall was still within the cone. You can't bash the NHC for that.

[dwg71]

beaumont wont get much worse...really just a good soaking for SE texas.

[Normandy]

Just got back to check things out, seems like it did indeed make landfall near the border....quite a NW jog it took...however now that it is inland it seems to be moving back westwards. Despite this, it still looks as if Houston/Galveston will get the worst weather out of this system....the strongest winds (65-70 mph) will be in that southern/western band, and the most intense gusts will be there as well. Gusts could be quite intense as well, getting near 90 mph.

[dwg71]

you will not see 90 mph gusts anywhere near galveston..

or anywhere for that matter.

[Normandy]

you will not see 90 mph gusts anywhere near galveston..

or anywhere for that matter.

Tropical storms with 65 mph winds usually carry 90 mph gusts, especially intensifying ones. Metro House prolly will NOT see that tho, shoreline locations.

[Jagno]

Normandy, Please provide a source for your information.

[Nederlander]

Just got back to check things out, seems like it did indeed make landfall near the border....quite a NW jog it took...however now that it is inland it seems to be moving back westwards. Despite this, it still looks as if Houston/Galveston will get the worst weather out of this system....the strongest winds (65-70 mph) will be in that southern/western band, and the most intense gusts will be there as well. Gusts could be quite intense as well, getting near 90 mph.

I highly doubt gusts up to 90mph .... IMO

[Normandy]

Yea maybe 90 is high, 75-80 sounds more reasonable, and Im gonna go ahead and stop posting now, seems things are getting testy in here by the tone of posts.

[canetracker]

From the 5A TWD

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND IS NOW 300/10. THE
STEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS
A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/050839.shtml

[mpic]

When you live in a mobile home, 75 sounds much better than 90 whether it is that much actual difference or not. IMO

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Just got back to check things out, seems like it did indeed make landfall near the border....quite a NW jog it took...however now that it is inland it seems to be moving back westwards. Despite this, it still looks as if Houston/Galveston will get the worst weather out of this system....the strongest winds (65-70 mph) will be in that southern/western band, and the most intense gusts will be there as well. Gusts could be quite intense as well, getting near 90 mph.

I highly doubt gusts up to 90mph .... IMO

I agree....even our weather station in the Gulf 30 miles southeast of Sabine Pass only measured sustained winds of about 50 mph with a gust to 67 mph as the center of Edouard passed directly over the station. It should be noted that this station is 80 feet above the water.

[dwg71]

i would like to see 50mph gusts recorded...there may be a few of those, but verified of 70-80 not likely.

[Normandy]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0852.shtml

There, I said 90 was too high and NHC agrees with 75 mph gusts....for some reason part of me was assuming Ed was a 75 mph storm (cane) when I came up with the 90...its kinda late and im up working....ok guys? geeeez.

[Jagno]

Normandy, please don't get offended. It's okay. This is a discussion forum and when something seems out of reasoning and logic then the others will question it so that it can be reviewed and reconsidered: which you did right away and made the correction. That's all. That's why it is called a discussion. It's been a long night for alot of us.

[Nederlander]

Greg, is it true that with this storm, the higher winds may not be in that NE quadrant, but possibly in the SW quadrant? Tstorms look more impressive on the SW side while the NE side seems a bit dry...

by the way, great job on the updates during the night.. we can always count on you guys!

[southerngale]

I lost electricity at my house. First call to Entergy and they hope to have it back on by 3am. If past experiences are any indication, it will be longer.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Greg, is it true that with this storm, the higher winds may not be in that NE quadrant, but possibly in the SW quadrant? Tstorms look more impressive on the SW side while the NE side seems a bit dry...

by the way, great job on the updates during the night.. we can always count on you guys!

So far no problems with the band from Winnie to Crystal Beach. Max wind gusts of around 45 mph measured at the weather stations in Winnie and High Island. Sustained winds of about 30 mph.

[Dionne]

I lost electricity at my house. First call to Entergy and they hope to have it back on by 3am. If past experiences are any indication, it will be longer.

Good luck! Entergy hasn't got our area back on line yet from last Saturday nights T-storms. Their gonna be busy!