Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[drezee]

This went just North of this buoy. The Buoy showed a sharp wave, but that is it.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043


on the current path is should pass over this buoy:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[Sanibel]

Now our very weak invest is convecting nearer to the center. Stay tuned as it approaches the Bahamas and west basin that has hosted two cyclones so far. Good for those that stuck with this.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now our very weak invest is convecting nearer to the center. Stay tuned as it approaches the Bahamas and west basin that has hosted two cyclones so far. Good for those that stuck with this.

Sanibel when do you think the mositure from this will reach florida?
I do not want any tropical development just some rain.

[tolakram]

Looking pretty good for a deactivated invest.

Shear is not that bad:



and the system is once again pulsing during the favorable part of the day (morning).



loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1




and the water vapor loop. Wasn't there a tutt nearby the other day?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Not sure what to make of this:

QuikSCAT

[Sanibel]

Trend is for reconvection nearer to warmer SST's and Florida diurnal convection.

[hial2]

Trend is for reconvection nearer to warmer SST's and Florida diurnal convection.

When is diurnal minimum??

[cpdaman]

well it seems this is a unique system

does it still have a LLC (appears so 22.3 67.7 at 1415z) , if so i'm surprised it is not an invest, perhaps the models convinced people (during it's Near death experience) this thing would be gone by now, and they took it down.

not saying this will be a storm, just that it still needs to be watched.

[alienstorm]

This system is interacting with a ULL and it should not develop. In order for development to happen the ULL must come down to the surface and a UL High needs to develop over the system. While it is not out of the question it ususally takes a few days for this transition to happen.

Additionally, looking at the High Resolution loops it shows the clouds being sheared to the north.

I expect very little in the way of development and it should move off the the NW and then northward.

[cpdaman]

steering currents of the low and mid levels show the current "distrubed area" in a NW flow which then bends back Westerly at appox 68.5 West.

so i think we will see the blob move NW and then turn more westerly toward evening.

only the upper level flow 200-700mb shows a really strong enough gap to recurve now, at least that is my interpretation

so in other words blob now at 22.5 67.5 get to about 23.5 68.5 by 5pm then move back Westerly IMO only.

[Dean4Storms]

A Surface wave with very little convection, move on.

[xironman]

Something is wrong with those shear maps, in the loops every time something pops it just gets torn apart.

[bvigal]

...Wasn't there a tutt nearby the other day?...

yep, from earlier this morning:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102180&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=795

[KWT]

Well its still plusing but the key thing is its still getting sheared. This may ease off further WNW we shall have to see I suppose!

[Honeyko]

well it seems this is a unique system

Actually they're fairly common in the early part of the season when the atmosphere is still capped. SAL-driven whorls cross the Atlantic; many dying....but some exploding near the Bahamas (like Katrina and Rita).

==//==

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

and:



IMO, the system has passed the point of any possible recurve into that zone of weakness. -- Now somebody give me a good reason why this isn't going to cut over into the Gulf. (I can see a slight northwest feint before running into the SE-anchored upper-high, then getting driven back southwest over Florida....just like Katrina.)

[cpdaman]

steering maps indicate (to me) nw then WNW/W movement

500-850 mb chart http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

however Honeyko trough over NE U.S may allow this weakness to be more dominant?

showing the trends (-3hr/+ 3hr) on the 500-850 mb chart show the trough possibly expanding the area of weakness westward

also perhaps the part of the wave to the NE of the LLC(or whats left) will create more of a path/ weakness for the storm to move more northerly

what do you think, you can see the steering flow (instead of a map) here on visible

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

the NE part of the wave appears to be going for a ride northward, and the part with a possible LLC looks like it may have gone to far west to do anything more than a NW motion.

[Honeyko]

what do you think

That ridge to the northwest is a brick wall.

Eyeballing things right now, I suspect that some mid-level energy (the disconnected northern blob of convection) will get stripped off and shunted northeast, but the low center will remain on a WNW-heading.

Looking at the latest vis, I'm seeing westward and even southward anvil spreading of some CB canopies now, so shear is definitely relaxing. ....it should go ahead and develop now.

[cpdaman]

supporting that thought...it seems there is a bit more distance being put between the two small areas of convection (one heading N) other Nw and then prob back to W/wnw.

[Honeyko]

Eyeball-projected 0804 1930Z center-fix: just a sliver southeast of 22N/62W. WNW heading. SAL still to the east, barging it forward.

Eyeball-projected (from IR2) 0805 0845Z center-fix: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.

Eyeball-projected 0805 1705Z center-fix: 23N/68W...WNW heading continues; forward speed slowing during passage under upper trough.

[KWT]

You can see a new upper feature dipping down right on the top left of the image, I'd imagine that will help to strengthen the weakness and keep the southern part of the wave on a constant WNW bearing till maybe 75W when a bend back is quite possible, thats my basic take on it but I've not had a real good look at everything with this system recently so I could be wrong...

[HURAKAN]

This system has had many chances but time is running out.