Canadian- sub-tropical low off East Coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since it looks rather quiet, rather than just quietly wait for a real model to detect a real tropical cyclone.


Canadian develops a low on the tail end of a front near Florida, and moves it Northeast, off the East Coast.




FSU phase diagrams off Canadian modelsays it will have some tropical characteristics:




OK, OK, it is the Canadian. But, honestly, I expect a quiet week, unofficially, and this will give us something to talk about. And, we can't be 100% certain the Canadian is wrong.

[kpost]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/index.html

GFS seems to agree

[SapphireSea]

I think if a frontal trough does make it down to central FL, whatever lingers of it will indeed become the next likely player if shear behaves. The gulf and just off the SE coast of the US are pretty much the only areas that have a chance at spawning a TC, so anything that ends up there should be watched. Of course things could change before then.. I'll say something spawns from this upcoming trough, not sure where (gulf or off east coast), the window of timing for this would be between Monday and Tuesday of next week. Of course I know there is a very high chance I will eat crow for this, but theres no fun in only taking safe bets.

[HURAKAN]

This year we're 3-2*. 3 tropical, 2 non-tropical. I can easily see something trying to spin up if a front drops down to Florida this time of the year.

* = origin

[kpost]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5fsu33a/fcst/index.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5fsu33b/fcst/index.html

these seem to agree somewhat too.

i hope CMC and GFS are wrong because when Cristobal's low came over it was gray and nasty here for days.

[americanrebel]

So we could either have another Cristobal or another Edouard, next week interesting. And the other models showing some majors coming across from Africa at the end of the month, this could be a very interesting month.

[HurricaneBelle]

I know this isn't quite what the models have in mind, but this is an interesting blowup on the tail end of a front off N.Carolina:

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian still develops a low that it intensifies as it heads Northeast, than North, towards Canada.


Looks frontal, as least to a degree, with drier air wrapping into the backside, and a tail of precip all the way back to Florida.

And, of course, it is the Canadian.

[Sanibel]

Hint of a twist SE of Hatteras.

[kpost]

The latest 72 hr. TAFB seems to see the possible low the models are talking about.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian starting to get some support (not complete agreement) for either an unusually strong Summer time frontal low or a sub-tropical low that starts on the old cold front off the East Coast.

0Z Canadian


Wow!

12Z GFS

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian- a series of unusually strong Summer lows developing on the front off the East Coast (sub-tropical? ¿ Quién Sabe ?) plus now a developing TC for the Northeast Caribbean.

May not be right, but it is action packed!