Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[kpost]

on another site someone mentioned the gulf steam current, in what way could this effect it if any?

plus on another site i frequent, people are starting to take notice of this little wave/swirl.

[Dean4Storms]

on another site someone mentioned the gulf steam current, in what way could this effect it if any?

plus on another site i frequent, people are starting to take notice of this little wave/swirl.

Well if it keeps on with this hard up convection while on my Viagra for another 4 hours it'll need to see a Doctor.

[tailgater]

It's starting to fire up some smallT-storms near the center again.

Where is the center?

I didn't know a open wave has a center.

The center is in the middle DUH
If your having trouble seeing it try using this site.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[SouthFloridawx]

Crazy thing still has a spiral to it.

Maybe they should put up little spiral warnings for the Bahamas and SE Florida.

Crazy little swirling thing has come from Africa. We must protect ourselves from this alien visitor.

Anyway... Hopefully it will kick up some decent storms over Florida in a couple of days.

[kpost]

on another site someone mentioned the gulf steam current, in what way could this effect it if any?

plus on another site i frequent, people are starting to take notice of this little wave/swirl.

Well if it keeps on with this hard up convection while on my Viagra for another 4 hours it'll need to see a Doctor.

that has always got my attention in the commercials

[Ed Mahmoud]

I had another box of NASA Satellite brownie mix and made another batch.



Get your home baked satellite loop while it is still hot!

[cpdaman]

thanks for the brownie's Ed, but tailgater's link takes us out 45 min further (1645z vs 1731z)

[Honeyko]

> Eyeball-projected 0804 1930Z center-fix: just a sliver southeast of 22N/62W. WNW heading. SAL still to the east, barging it forward.

> Eyeball-projected (from IR2) 0805 0845Z center-fix: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.

> Eyeball-projected 0805 1705Z center-fix: 23N/68W...WNW heading continues; forward speed slowing during passage under upper trough.

> Eyeball-projected (from IR2) 0806 0645Z center-fix: 23N/72W. Forward speed resumed; due W heading.

Eyeball-projected 0805 1645Z center-fix: 24.5N/74W...movement NW. I expect this movement to continue to about 26N/76W, then an accelerated due-W movement. The northwest movement has taken ex-99L farther up into northeasterly shear, but also into higher heat-content water (which may explain the explosion in NW bands around noon); shear will be alleviated somewhat when westward movement resumes.

[cpdaman]

good observation honeyko this is now in a slighly more sheared enviornment than earlier this morning but i think this will be on the edge of some strong shear soon should the NW movement continue much longer

[cycloneye]

Got a mention in the 2 PM EDT TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 061757
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD...LOCATED INLAND OVER TEXAS ABOUT 70
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DALLAS.

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[vacanechaser]

Got a mention in the 2 PM EDT TWO:

ABNT20 KNHC 061757
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD...LOCATED INLAND OVER TEXAS ABOUT 70
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DALLAS.

A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

you beat me to it... lol.. interesting to see it mentioned again... i mean the thing off africa and the east coast looks better than this thing, at least in the way of convection



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intecept Research Team

[Honeyko]

"....CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM....."

(Emphasis mine.) Interesting choice of qualifier -- it leaves open the possibility of "ordinary" development of the system.

[cpdaman]

honeyko.....honeyko....honeyko

ok well do you think the highest area of ENE/NE shear will be moving east into the atlantic or hanging around awhile....... i checked the shearmaps/ tendency..but someone with knowldege beyond the maps could prob. tell me what they may say in the future.

how bout an invest on this again

[N2Storms]

[quote="Honeyko"][quote="cycloneye"]"....CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
[i]SIGNIFICANT[/i] DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM....."[/quote](Emphasis mine.) Interesting choice of qualifier -- it leaves open the possibility of "ordinary" development of the system.[/quote]



For the sake of argument lets suppose that this does develope a closed circulation...in your humble opinion will this make it into to the GOM or will it make it as far as the Peninsula and then turrn North and eventually NEwd

[Honeyko]

For the sake of argument lets suppose that this does develope a closed circulation...in your humble opinion will this make it into to the GOM or will it make it as far as the Peninsula and then turrn North and eventually NEwd

If it develops a concentrated area of convection, it'll be pushed west by prevailing steering.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The trough/front progged to dip down the EC seems to want to end up more zonal than digging SE. I would agree with the steering on this wannabe cyclone, but the HUGE if is on development. It is highly unusual for a circulation this small to survive the conditions it already has, the likely hood is still very low (again I think this is a 10%-er) it will develop enough convection to develop past a sharp wave. The NE shear may inhibit development if it inches northward and will just bring a few thunderstorms to FL or it may linger and get swept NE. It does appear that if it can get though the FL straits it may have enough energy left to spin up in the gulf.

[Sanibel]

Shear. Done.

[AJC3]

The vort center associated with this wave, which had been a bit more compact earlier, appears to be elongating toward the NE, and has gained quite bit of latitude, with the center of the vort lobe now crossing 25N. What's left of the low level ridge axis has dropped south to near Lake Okeechobee and will collapse by Thursday, so SW low-mid level flow is poised to develop across the Florida peninsula. Since a shallow feature such as this will follow the low to mid level steering flow, there's no way that the wave will reach the FL east coast now, and whatever does or (more likely) doesn't develop out of this wave should eventually turn NE somewhere between 75 and 77W.

[SouthFloridawx]

[Honeyko]

The vort center associated with this wave, which had been a bit more compact earlier, appears to be elongating toward the NE, and has gained quite bit of latitude, with the center of the vort lobe now crossing 25N. What's left of the low level ridge axis has dropped south to near Lake Okeechobee and will collapse by Thursday, so SW low-mid level flow is poised to develop across the Florida peninsula. Since a shallow feature such as this will follow the low to mid level steering flow, there's no way that the wave will reach the FL east coast now, and whatever does or (more likely) doesn't develop out of this wave should eventually turn NE somewhere between 75 and 77W.

Boy, that ridge axis is very strong, though; and those screaming upper-level northeasterlies look like their going to mix down to the surface across Florida as the sea-breeze marches east-to-west this afternoon. The jet-max across the northern US would tend to imply a zonal high-pressure arrangement off the east coast, with initially northwest surface winds in the SE US backing to southeast.

Maybe I'm just seeing things, but there's seems to be a hint of a left turn in recent 99L frames.