NOAA Atlantic 2008 Season Update=14-18 named storms

[cycloneye]

Increase of numbers by NOAA.Read the whole report at link.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... tlook.html





Important Highlight of report:

Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”

[HURAKAN]

Nice picture of Dolly.

[cycloneye]

What I am looking the most about what NOAA says is if weaker trade winds occur,it may well spawn stronger hurricanes as less trade winds warm more rapidly the waters,although recurving systems increase.

[vacanechaser]

What I am looking the most about what NOAA says is if weaker trade winds occur,it may well spawn stronger hurricanes as less trade winds warm more rapidly the waters,although recurving systems increase.

thats right.. the weaker trades do not up well the waters off africa which would allow them to cool.. that could allow the storms to develop quicker which in turn would have an impcat on the systems recurving out to see in a lot of cases... but we have seen years where we have had big storms come all the way across ivan, isabel frances just to name a few.. gonna be a long peak season thats for sure


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Below is the link to the extended discussion of the outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

[cycloneye]

I have a question about the NOAA outlooks in terms of why they always spread the numbers and not have only one number per category,14/8/3 vs 14-18,7-9,3-6.

[Scorpion]

Yea, it seems pretty hard to bust when you have a range of 5 storms...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What lower shear? Both Dolly and Edouard both had to deal with it.

The centeral Atlantic has a intense TUTT...With a strong Azores high that is moving all the waves at 20-25 knots. Which also enforces the SAL. I believe it will become much more favorable by Late this month into Sept. Which is normal. Do I expect major hurricanes, yes. I expect the MDR to remain rather unfavorable for the next 2-3 weeks intil a pattern changes to weak the eastern shear.

[Mecklenburg]

What lower shear? Both Dolly and Edouard both had to deal with it.

The centeral Atlantic has a intense TUTT...With a strong Azores high that is moving all the waves at 20-25 knots. Which also enforces the SAL. I believe it will become much more favorable by Late this month into Sept. Which is normal. Do I expect major hurricanes, yes. I expect the MDR to remain rather unfavorable for the next 2-3 weeks intil a pattern changes to weak the eastern shear.

yeah, what a funny thought

[vacanechaser]

What lower shear? Both Dolly and Edouard both had to deal with it.

The centeral Atlantic has a intense TUTT...With a strong Azores high that is moving all the waves at 20-25 knots. Which also enforces the SAL. I believe it will become much more favorable by Late this month into Sept. Which is normal. Do I expect major hurricanes, yes. I expect the MDR to remain rather unfavorable for the next 2-3 weeks intil a pattern changes to weak the eastern shear.

i said nothing about the tutt and that type of shear... read my post... the weaker ridge would mean less shear, systems moving slower and not causing their own vertical shear.... has nothing to do with the tutt... i was refering to the warmer waters and upwelling.... not the tutt... and as far as a strong azores high?? have you been watching the same thing we have... the sal is and has been nonexistant... the waves for the most part have not been moving that fast either.. the low level centers have not out run the convection one time this year do to Forward speed... unlike the last 2 years... it may be unfavorable for the next week or so, do in part to the unfavorable MJO pattern we are in... but you can see it coming due to the activity in the central and eastern pacific...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

P.S. i have not seen the ridge pressure consistantly above normal at all this season... last year, weeks of 1030mb+.. not so this season..

[lonelymike]

MJO-Overrated IMO

[vacanechaser]

MJO-Overrated IMO

in some years i would agree.. but this year, when the mjo moved in, the systems started popping.. now that it is unfavorable, you cant keep convection and clouds going right now... lets see if i am correct that once it moves in, we start seeing development



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

I have a question about the NOAA outlooks in terms of why they always spread the numbers and not have only one number per category,14/8/3 vs 14-18,7-9,3-6.

If you read their report, their range indicates 1 standard deviation above and below the predicted number. In this case, the standard deviation is 2 named storms. Their predicted number is 16. There is a 67% chance that the total number of named storms will fall within 1 standard deviation of 16 - between 14 and 18. There's a much lower probability that the number will be exactly 16. It's all about probability.

[Mecklenburg]

i believe their estimates are too safe... 14-18... that is such a huge gap... could they be more specific enough like CSU?

[cycloneye]

I have a question about the NOAA outlooks in terms of why they always spread the numbers and not have only one number per category,14/8/3 vs 14-18,7-9,3-6.

If you read their report, their range indicates 1 standard deviation above and below the predicted number. In this case, the standard deviation is 2 named storms. Their predicted number is 16. There is a 67% chance that the total number of named storms will fall within 1 standard deviation of 16 - between 14 and 18. There's a much lower probability that the number will be exactly 16. It's all about probability.

Thanks 57 for answering the question I had about this.

[Emmett_Brown]

Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña

One of the indicators in the quote above is pretty flimsy if you ask me. The "Multi Decadal Signal" has been viewed by some as a lock in many seasons for above normal activity. While the trend has been there, there is nothing concrete about it. This "Multi Decadal Signal" is a pattern that is broad and inexact. Even active periods contain specific instances of inactive seasons.

Do I think this season will be active? Yes, I do, and mostly because of the high water temperature and weaker trade winds that have been observed, along with the fact that we have already seen above active activity for the year. Of all the forecasts, I like the CSU forecast the best... it combines many more predictors, and shows hindcast skill.