(MJO) Madden Julian Oscillation

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know what is MJO (Madden Julian Occillation),here is a complete explanation about this factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden-Julian_oscillation

[vacanechaser]

although some experts dont look at this factor as a significant one.

yep.. but it sure seemed to make things active last month as it was favorable





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Decomdoug]

Based on the more favorable MJO I believe next week will start the ramp-up.

[cycloneye]

No wonder the CPAC and EPAC are very active right now,with one Tropical Storm,One Hurricane and four disturbances that may develop into named systems,all because the MJO is in the favorable phase in the CPAC and EPAC.By next week,those favorable conditions will move into the Atlantic Basin and things will start to pop.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Wow. I didn't know the MJO had that much of an affect on development. Looks like were in El Nino right now. The way the EPAC is active and the Atlantic is dead. Got a funny feeling our turn is coming.

[HurricaneBelle]

Can someone fix the spelling on the thread title? The first "c" should be an "s" in "Occillation" (sic).

[cycloneye]

Can someone fix the spelling on the thread title? The first "c" should be an "s" in "Occillation" (sic).

Fixed

[Mecklenburg]

i've read in wikipedia that MJO is somehow related to El Niño... ib etter read it again just to make sure...

[cycloneye]

The favorable MJO is about to enter the Atlantic (Green Lines) as you can see in the graphic posted above,just in time to the start of the peak of the season on August 15.

[TheRingo]

Fay could be the last gasp of this season. I think it's downhill from this point on. The next mjo won't come back around until the middle-end sept.



Wind shear is starting it's rise.



and ITCZ height will soon be on the downward slope.

[RL3AO]

Fay could be the last gasp of this season. I think it's downhill from this point on. The next mjo won't come back around until the middle-end sept.

Like multiple pro-mets have said, the MJO doesn't have that much impact on the Atlantic basin.

[KWT]

Last gasp....2007 had much less favorable conditions yet it still pumped out about another 8-10 storms from this point on, no reason why this season will not produce just as many!

Shear is still about average, ITCZ is still close to average aand the MJO hardly is unfavorable either.

[TheRingo]

wow the mjo has really stalled longer than I expected.

[cycloneye]

The Atlantic is now in the negative phase for development as not humid MJO is now in the basin,that is why things are relativly quiet now.However,in the next 1-2 weeks the wet MJO will kick in making things more favorable for cyclogeneris.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I didn't believe the correlation between the MJO and activity in the tropics till now. When members were saying watch for mid-late August when the favorable MJO enters the Atlantic. They weren't kidding. I know there are other factors but MJO seems to be an important one during the season.

[RL3AO]

I think a lot of people on this board are putting too much weight on the MJO's influence on Atlantic activity. As wxman57's write-up notes, the MJO's influence is much less pronounced in the Atlantic than in the western Pacific or Indian Oceans.

So is the fact that 10 of the past 11 storms forming in the positive phase of the MJO a coincidence? Is the MJO stronger than normal in the Atlantic this season? Every time the positive phase of the MJO moved into the Atlantic this season, activity exploded.

[Sanibel]

They weren't kidding about the MJO positive phase. The ITCZ in the Atlantic is really firing but October conditions are iffy on support. Big hints at storms here.

Is that big ITCZ flare-up GFS's storm?

[wxman57]

Fay could be the last gasp of this season. I think it's downhill from this point on. The next mjo won't come back around until the middle-end sept.

Like multiple pro-mets have said, the MJO doesn't have that much impact on the Atlantic basin.

See the study done by Maloney and Hartman on MJO impact across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico that I cited on the web page below:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/

There is strong evidence that the MJO, though weak, is responsible for a significant increase in development across the Gulf and Caribbean about a week after it reaches the East Pac. It could just be the increase in convection.

[Sanibel]

The green zone is currently over the Atlantic on the MJO map, which means the positive phase is on now.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The green zone or favorable part of the MJO might be over the Atlantic. But look at where all the activity is. Over the EPAC where the MJO is more tightly gradient. When this more favorable part enters the Gulf and Carribean. Will see our last chance of activity.