Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

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Meso
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Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

#1 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:57 am

Wasn't sure if this warranted it's own thread but it's getting more model support so..There is a wave over Africa at the moment on the Western end of Mali, which doesn't look too bad.The GFS shows a wave starting moving off the coast in around 24-48 hours and I'm guessing it would be that one.The GFS then develops the storm significantly and eventually moves the system West becoming a powerful storm later down the line... The CMC is also showing a CV storm, so the models will need to be watched to see if the trend continues.

Here is the GFS at 108 hours


Image


Here is a large image of the wave over Africa

Sat Image

CMC at 126 hours

Image
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:07 am

GFS at 168 hours.Lets follow ther next runs of GFS,CMC,and lets see if NOGAPS,UKMET and the Euro join.

Image

288 Hours:

Image
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#3 Postby Hurricaneman13 » Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:10 am

It would be interesting if this formed. It would probably be a classical Cape Verde storm IMO.
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#4 Postby kpost » Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:34 am

if you play the GFS way into fantasy land (384 hrs), that wave could really suck for N. Carolina all the way to R.I.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#5 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 07, 2008 9:53 am

GFS has alittle more weight than the CMC.Should be interesting.I believe the GFS for intiating something,but it remains to be seen where it will go and how big it will get
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#6 Postby kpost » Thu Aug 07, 2008 10:01 am

This is not a forecast of anything but pure fantasy land and should be taken as much.

All i know is this could make some nervous if the runs keep showing this. especially with the recent models stating too early of a recurve on the systems that have already happened. With the pattern so far this year on the models it could be anywhere on the east coast. How is GFS at predicting intensity?



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#7 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:51 am

Image

108 Hour GFS


Image

300 hour GFS
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Scorpion

#8 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:52 am

Funny how about a year ago today the GFS started advertising a long tracker(Dean).
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2008 12:28 pm

The 12z Canadian continues to show the system moving westward.

Image

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#10 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 07, 2008 12:48 pm

Image
300 hour GFS


One thing for sure, the Bermuda High looks more impressive in the long range models. Any reliable model that has a developed system near the SE CONUS near August 24th gets my attention.
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#11 Postby curtadams » Thu Aug 07, 2008 1:17 pm

Looks to me like the possible cyclone forms from the next wave. It forms just off the coast of Africa in about 4 days.
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#12 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:15 pm

I started to notice this when looking at the runs for Kika. There is a growing amount of support for this.
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#13 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:16 pm

This is interesting..and right on time for the cape verde season...
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:23 pm

UKMET joins the combo of models,although very weak showing.

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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#15 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:28 pm

Looks like the models are indicating a Bermuda High that is set pretty far to the east setting up. That would equal lots of recurves out to see or ones that impact Bermuda or simply scare the Outer Banks.

Actually, for CONUS, that is a set up that keeps most storms off our shores and harmlessly out to sea. (well, except for poor Bermuda)
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#16 Postby littlevince » Thu Aug 07, 2008 2:39 pm

GFS 12Z
Cyclone phase diagrams

Image
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Derek Ortt

#17 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 07, 2008 3:03 pm

we know this is fantasy land

but I am hoping that the Bermuda high remains as pathetic as it has bene all season, as is depicted by the models.

in fact, let it weaken further so that the Carib and Bermuda can also be spared
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#18 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 07, 2008 3:09 pm

Indeed I agree Derek, the only thing I'm worried about is if we get any low trackers that get scooped up from the Caribbean...also I think there is probably at least a 50-50 chance that one storm is going to slip through the net towards the east coast, just hope its not as extreme as Hugo/Floyd if one does come through.
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#19 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:58 pm

18z GFS : 72 hours

Image
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Re: Wave Over Africa and Model Support

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:07 pm

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