More GOM Tropical Development

[canetracker]

Can't remember a year like this. It was BEAUTIFUL this morning in north Alabama, with temps in the low 70s through about 10am. Dry and breezy. Feels like fall in the middle of summer!

We should be getting in on some of that nice weather tomorrow according to local mets, however, today is rainy and overcast. It is definitely better than extreme heat.

[southerngale]

The cold front didn't make it here.... it's freakin' hot outside!

And I'll vote no on GOM tropical development.

[vbhoutex]

The cold front didn't make it here.... it's freakin' hot outside!

And I'll vote no on GOM tropical development.

I second that vote!!!

On the other hand we could still use some rain in these parts-yes there are areas that got very little from Edouard.

Nothing at all tropical about the msc SW of NO, but I m hoping it keeps working its' way w and wnw into our area for some heat relief and some more rain.

[ftolmsteen]

Not sure if anything will become of this down the road, but the pressure at my house, which is about 40 miles north of St. Pete is showing 29.84 .

[HurricaneBelle]

Not saying anything will come of it, but we do have some sort of convergence. Besides, their is nothing else to watch right now.

Does anyone ever remember a year that we had fronts making it this far south in August???

Yeah, August 13, 2004. The front that came down, was stronger than expected (chewing up Bonnie in the process), and as a result pulled Charley into Charlotte Harbor instead of Tampa. The front had already cleared the FL panhandle (Valparaiso had a dew point of 59 at 4PM that day while Charley was making landfall). Of course ridging set up after that and brought in Frances and Jeanne from east to west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That blob coming off the coast of Louisiana reminds me a bit of how future Edouard looked.


But no Fay for you. Not this weekend. If it had been pushing off the Florida Big Bend into the Gulf, it might be different.


Radar shows a dry outflow boundary approaching my lawn. Hoping a storm fires up but quick, but it probably won't.



Quittin' time...

[dixiebreeze]

Not sure if anything will become of this down the road, but the pressure at my house, which is about 40 miles north of St. Pete is showing 29.84 .

Pressure is low here, too.

[Mecklenburg]

honestly, i don't wan't fay to become like this... i wan't her to become a long-tracker

[Category 5]

honestly, i don't wan't fay to become like this... i wan't her to become a long-tracker

You'll get what you're given and like it.

Trust me, if it was up to me every storm would be a long track fishspinner that didn't bug land.

[Mecklenburg]

honestly, i don't wan't fay to become like this... i wan't her to become a long-tracker

You'll get what you're given and like it.

Trust me, if it was up to me every storm would be a long track fishspinner that didn't bug land.

that would be great... all CV cat. 4 recurving... like some of my favorite storms... Edouard of 1996, Gert of 1999, Felix of 1995 and Isaac of 2000

[Honeyko]

that would be great... all CV cat. 4 recurving... like some of my favorite storms... Edouard of 1996, Gert of 1999, Felix of 1995 and Isaac of 2000

Felix scared the crap out of North Carolina for many days as it every so slowly ground closer and closer. It was a very large hurricane.

[Category 5]

that would be great... all CV cat. 4 recurving... like some of my favorite storms... Edouard of 1996, Gert of 1999, Felix of 1995 and Isaac of 2000

Felix scared the crap out of North Carolina for many days as it every so slowly ground closer and closer. It was a very large hurricane.

Felix 95 was what got me into Hurricanes in the first place.

[lonelymike]

Beautiful in NW fla this morning at the parentals. Feels like fall out. Wonder if we will get an early fall this year.

[Sanibel]

Unseasonal August cold front:

[Weatherfreak14]

I put my vote in for no development. Its just a unusual cold front passing through. I dont think anything will spin up.

[Emmett_Brown]

That trough is the strongest August trough i can remember recently. Reminds me of the trough that followed Charlie in '04. I dont know if there is any correlation. The '04 trough was rather persistent June - early Aug as I remember, and then flipped to a ridge. Not saying the same will happen this time, but it has happened in the past.

I dont see any GOM dev with this one. Mid August is usually quieter as far as cyclogenis in the GOM... most GOM action at this time of year comes storms that have already formed and wander in. However, most years also dont feature a cold front at this time of year, so anything is possible.

48 Hour GFS features the ridge suppressed to the south, but no other suspicious areas in the GOM:

[vaffie]

I think if anyone in the Gulf is interested in where the next developing area will be, they should look at the central Atlantic. The GFS has been consistent with developing a central Atlantic wave into a major storm. Today's 0Z model has it hitting western Louisiana, while the more recent 12Z had it hitting the eastern Gulf. Now, the 18Z has it skimming the east coast Worth watching for. Will be interesting to see the next 00Z.

Compare:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_348l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

[Honeyko]

Vaffie, the GFS will be squirting those things out almost every run for the next month and a half. Why? >shrug< It's the GFS.

==//==

In order for anything to cook in the Gulf, surface winds behind the front will need to veer to out of the northeast.

[Ptarmigan]

We should have more rain for SE Texas on Tuesday/Wednesday.

[SkeetoBite]

I rode this front out on a fishing tournement 30 miles offshore from Clearwater beach. The water temp at 3' deep was 89 degrees in Tampa Bay and 82 degrees 30 miles out. We had 5' to 6' swells but it layed down to 1' to 2' and calm drier air Sunday morning.