Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[OURAGAN]

What about the system at 30W, convection is growing hour by hour?
What do you think about it?

[OURAGAN]

the system to watch definitely , is the system at 10N/30W

[abajan]

the system to watch definitely , is the system at 10N/30W

Yes, we should definitely watch this one, considering its latitude and the time of year. If it was further south, I wouldn't be so concerned.

[jhamps10]

please correct me if I am wrong here, but isn't 10/30 wave the one talked about in the eastern atlantic/model support thread???? and that the one that started this thread is now is at about 42west or so.. therefore I would send the 10/30 discussion to that thread, as I believe that's the wave that the models are developing with GFS showing a coast runner with possible New England landfall ala hurricane bob or hurricane Gloria.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Second day in a row Japanese global model 12Z run develops this into a closed cyclone (of undetermined strength, not sure if AccuWX PPV graphics are low res, the model is low res, or the low just remains weak) and hits Puerto Rico in a week.


No idea if it is right or not, but if a cyclone hits Puerto Rico next Saturday, I'll start checking the JMA model more often.

The following day, hour 192, the following, impressive looking wave, finally closes off a low, just East of the Lesser Antilles, per the JMA.



Exact center hard to pinpoint, as it has a large area inside a closed 1011 mb isobar.

[OURAGAN]

Here we go with the system at 10N/30W, the 8 PM TWO mention it.

[OURAGAN]

ABNT20 KNHC 092345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[OURAGAN]

Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation (click for full outlook)
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Low Potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation (click for full outlook)
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

Is in the East Atlantic thread posted.

[southerngale]

please correct me if I am wrong here, but isn't 10/30 wave the one talked about in the eastern atlantic/model support thread???? and that the one that started this thread is now is at about 42west or so.. therefore I would send the 10/30 discussion to that thread, as I believe that's the wave that the models are developing with GFS showing a coast runner with possible New England landfall ala hurricane bob or hurricane Gloria.

Yes, I believe so. I can see the confusion among members, though, particularly if they haven't been following the threads very closely. I don't like to edit other people's titles, but perhaps a (near 30w) and (near 42w) in this case would help everyone.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not even sure if the E Atl thread is for the one near 30W, or the one that just emerged into the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Derek,I just clarified in that other thread.

[Sanibel]

Watch this one. This is where Dolly picked up energy from the ITCZ to its south and formed.

[Fego]

Second day in a row Japanese global model 12Z run develops this into a closed cyclone (of undetermined strength, not sure if AccuWX PPV graphics are low res, the model is low res, or the low just remains weak) and hits Puerto Rico in a week.


No idea if it is right or not, but if a cyclone hits Puerto Rico next Saturday, I'll start checking the JMA model more often.

The following day, hour 192, the following, impressive looking wave, finally closes off a low, just East of the Lesser Antilles, per the JMA.

Exact center hard to pinpoint, as it has a large area inside a closed 1011 mb isobar.

Would you share the japanese link
?

[Nimbus]

There is a twist in the ITCZ near 8N at 43W where the first wave is moving and that appears to be providing some moisture for the wave back at 30W. Model support does not show any intervention from a mid atlantic TUTT?

[MiamiensisWx]

Since the areas near 30 W and 19-23 W are covered in other threads, what is the purpose and subject of this one?

[Praxus]

This thread is for 10N/43W or so I believe...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Second day in a row Japanese global model 12Z run develops this into a closed cyclone (of undetermined strength, not sure if AccuWX PPV graphics are low res, the model is low res, or the low just remains weak) and hits Puerto Rico in a week.


No idea if it is right or not, but if a cyclone hits Puerto Rico next Saturday, I'll start checking the JMA model more often.

The following day, hour 192, the following, impressive looking wave, finally closes off a low, just East of the Lesser Antilles, per the JMA.

Exact center hard to pinpoint, as it has a large area inside a closed 1011 mb isobar.

Would you share the japanese link
?

It is pay per view. I'll see if I can find a free version...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Second day in a row Japanese global model 12Z run develops this into a closed cyclone (of undetermined strength, not sure if AccuWX PPV graphics are low res, the model is low res, or the low just remains weak) and hits Puerto Rico in a week.


No idea if it is right or not, but if a cyclone hits Puerto Rico next Saturday, I'll start checking the JMA model more often.

The following day, hour 192, the following, impressive looking wave, finally closes off a low, just East of the Lesser Antilles, per the JMA.

Exact center hard to pinpoint, as it has a large area inside a closed 1011 mb isobar.

Would you share the japanese link
?

It is pay per view. I'll see if I can find a free version...

Can't find a free version on the internet.

However, a description of the JMA global:

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/nwp.html

In November 2007, the horizontal resolution and the vertical levels were improved. The horizontal resolution was enhanced from TL319 (grid distance is around 60km) to TL959 (grid distance around 20km). The number of vertical level was increased from 40 to 60, and the height of the top level became 0.1hPa from 0.4hPa. The short to medium-range forecasts, which were previously covered by Regional Spectrum Model (RSM) and Typhoon Model (TYM), started being supported by this improved GSM, and the operation of RSM and TYM were terminated simultaneously.

[HURAKAN]