Jeff Masters Steering Patterns For Aug/Sept

[Blown Away]

Today Jeff Master's gave a great summary of the steering patterns for the rest of August into September. Jeff thinks the EC trough will be around for about 2 weeks and should recurve any systems approaching the EC. In two weeks Jeff thinks the EC trough will begin to weaken and the set up will be less favorable for recurvature. It appears that any Cape Verdes system forming today would be about 2 weeks away, so the EC trough could begin to weaken at the time any potential system could reach the EC. I think the season is about to ramp up in a hurry!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[hurricanetrack]

That is excellent information. Dr. Masters is well respected and seems to know his stuff. Funny, I saw him last night on an old episode of NOVA that I have called "Hurricane!". He was flying in to Gilbert on that one. Looked like David Spade to a T!

Anyhow, this information is interesting and can be tracked using the longer range models. Posts like this are good to see since they have at least sound reasoning behind them. Thanks for posting it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro seesm to suggest the rather persistent East Coast trough will start to shift a week from tomorrow, and by ten days, the East Coast will have ridging, with a mean trough closer to 90ºW, which shows very little movement on day 9 and day 10.


If, and of course, its a big if, anything were out there, Florida and the Eastern/Central Gulf could be at risk.

[Frank2]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

Well, they haven't even perfected the 5 day forecast yet, so anything ten days to two weeks down the road is potentially uncertain.


Oh, bummer

PSD Map Room
The PSD ensemble forecasts are not available due to a hardware problem. They should be back up sometime next week.

[storms in NC]

That is excellent information. Dr. Masters is well respected and seems to know his stuff. Funny, I saw him last night on an old episode of NOVA that I have called "Hurricane!". He was flying in to Gilbert on that one. Looked like David Spade to a T!

Anyhow, this information is interesting and can be tracked using the longer range models. Posts like this are good to see since they have at least sound reasoning behind them. Thanks for posting it.

It was a very nice write up. Now see if it pans out in a few weeks. a few years ago the sal was to lighten up and they held strong all season. I don't think we got any storms from CV that year.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

Wow. You must value your own opinion far more than any facts out there. How can you be so opinion based all the time? I understand you dont like hurricanes, which is natural for someone along the coast...but has there ever been a time where you actually believed that some type of development was going to occur, or that things would ever become more favorable for development? This is the weather...its everchanging.

[vacanechaser]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

Wow. You must value your own opinion far more than any facts out there. How can you be so opinion based all the time? I understand you dont like hurricanes, which is natural for someone along the coast...but has there ever been a time where you actually believed that some type of development was going to occur, or that things would ever become more favorable for development? This is the weather...its everchanging.

i think he is just doing it to rile some people up here who love to track hurricanes... he knows he can get these people all fired up... every post is the same... he knows more than the professionals!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cheezyWXguy]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

Wow. You must value your own opinion far more than any facts out there. How can you be so opinion based all the time? I understand you dont like hurricanes, which is natural for someone along the coast...but has there ever been a time where you actually believed that some type of development was going to occur, or that things would ever become more favorable for development? This is the weather...its everchanging.

i think he is just doing it to rile some people up here who love to track hurricanes... he knows he can get these people all fired up... every post is the same... he knows more than the professionals!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

well hes got me fooled

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Still, anytime a meteorologist (even Dr. Jeff Masters, who was well respected even during my old days with NOAA) says that a system should begin to weaken, that's a sure sign that it also might not weaken, so, we'll shall see...

Wow. You must value your own opinion far more than any facts out there. How can you be so opinion based all the time? I understand you dont like hurricanes, which is natural for someone along the coast...but has there ever been a time where you actually believed that some type of development was going to occur, or that things would ever become more favorable for development? This is the weather...its everchanging.

i think he is just doing it to rile some people up here who love to track hurricanes... he knows he can get these people all fired up... every post is the same... he knows more than the professionals!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Frank lost everything to Andrew in 1992. He's not trying to rile people up.

As much as we love to track hurricanes, it is still important to understand
that many people on here have lost everything to hurricanes; so their
forecast may be for no development, and anyone in a situation where they
lose everything to a hurricane would be rooting for no development.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As for these steering patterns, Jeff has an excellent analysis,
so as storm trackers we'll all be watching the basin closely.

['CaneFreak]

"Frank lost everything to Andrew in 1992. He's not trying to rile people up.

As much as we love to track hurricanes, it is still important to understand
that many people on here have lost everything to hurricanes; so their
forecast may be for no development, and anyone in a situation where they
lose everything to a hurricane would be rooting for no development."

TB Hurricane:

Its not about whether you are rooting for development or not, its about telling the facts. Frank NEVER tells the facts, he tries to lead others to believe his wrong thinking is right when he is not right to begin with. I could name many examples but that is not the point of this thread. Back to the real point of the thread. It looks like a very ominous Aug/Sept for the US. I hope everyone is ready!!! I know I am.

[Blown Away]

"Frank lost everything to Andrew in 1992. He's not trying to rile people up.

As much as we love to track hurricanes, it is still important to understand
that many people on here have lost everything to hurricanes; so their
forecast may be for no development, and anyone in a situation where they
lose everything to a hurricane would be rooting for no development."

TB Hurricane:

Its not about whether you are rooting for development or not, its about telling the facts. Frank NEVER tells the facts, he tries to lead others to believe his wrong thinking is right when he is not right to begin with. I could name many examples but that is not the point of this thread. Back to the real point of the thread. It looks like a very ominous Aug/Sept for the US. I hope everyone is ready!!! I know I am.

Exactly, good job!

[vacanechaser]

"Frank lost everything to Andrew in 1992. He's not trying to rile people up.

TB Hurricane:

Its not about whether you are rooting for development or not, its about telling the facts. Frank NEVER tells the facts, he tries to lead others to believe his wrong thinking is right when he is not right to begin with. I could name many examples but that is not the point of this thread. Back to the real point of the thread. It looks like a very ominous Aug/Sept for the US. I hope everyone is ready!!! I know I am.

my points exactlly... i guess you said it better than i did... he does it with every system, every season... but whatever


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Andrew92]

If this season is about to ramp up in a hurry, with what we've had so far with Bertha and Dolly, I can only wonder what is yet to come!

And I thought Edouard would be a big one, had I known this season would go so quickly, I'd have gone with Josephine instead! But I do still have Laura, but then again that's not something to root for.

I suspect the U.S. will see its first landfalling system developing off the African coast for the first time since 2004 sometime in about a month or so if what Jeff Masters says holds serve.

-Andrew92

[storms in NC]

If this season is about to ramp up in a hurry, with what we've had so far with Bertha and Dolly, I can only wonder what is yet to come!

And I thought Edouard would be a big one, had I known this season would go so quickly, I'd have gone with Josephine instead! But I do still have Laura, but then again that's not something to root for.

I suspect the U.S. will see its first landfalling system developing off the African coast for the first time since 2004 sometime in about a month or so if what Jeff Masters says holds serve.

-Andrew92

I think we had Christabel too. Oh wait that was on the East coast.