Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[cycloneye]

I can see at least 2 invests later this morning.

[Mecklenburg]

I can see at least 2 invests later this morning.

the first wave has just been upgraded to invest status (far better than expected), hopefully this will be next

[cycloneye]

310
ABNT20 KNHC 101137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[ronjon]

HPC this morning discussing a pumped up Atlantic Ridge.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
408 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 14 2008 - 12Z SUN AUG 17 2008

RIDGING OUT WEST BUILDS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE STEERS A DEEP CYCLONE FROM NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INTO MIDWEST...LEADING TO A RETROGRESSION OF A TROUGH PREVIOUSLY OUT EAST BACK INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. THE HEIGHT FIELD WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE HEIGHTS 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR AUGUST...VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLY TO MID AUGUST 2004 PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PUMPS UP THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES/CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FLOW PATTERN...

[Sihara]

HPC this morning discussing a pumped up Atlantic Ridge.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
408 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 12Z THU AUG 14 2008 - 12Z SUN AUG 17 2008

...VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLY TO MID AUGUST 2004 PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PUMPS UP THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES/CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FLOW PATTERN...

Hello all,

I'm new here (tho an obsessive lurker for years) so I hope I'm not breaking any rules. When I read the above quote, I couldn't help thinking that we're 3 days away from the anniversary of Charlie (8/13/2004), which did a hard right turn due to a unseasonable cold front. Is it possible this current pattern, called "very similar to the early to mid-August 2004 pattern," could produce the amount of activity and/or types of tracks we saw back then?

[littlevince]

Loop

[cheezyWXguy]

Loop

wow thank you for posting that loop because I think I found the area the GFS is developing. Its east of where it was last night so its a new area associated with the same wave. Between 25 and 30W and about 11N, I see a what looks like CLOSED llc. convection not organized on it yet, but looks pretty well defined...take a look

[curtadams]

wow thank you for posting that loop because I think I found the area the GFS is developing. Its east of where it was last night so its a new area associated with the same wave. Between 25 and 30W and about 11N, I see a what looks like CLOSED llc. convection not organized on it yet, but looks pretty well defined...take a look

Nope, if you step through the GFS, you'll see the GFS is developing the current area of disturbed weather near 35W but without a LLC. The area you mention moves west for a few days, then freezes in place for several days, then starts developing. And that's exactly the kind of surreal prediction that should make you very suspicious of GFS cyclogenesis predictions in the ITCZ near Africa.

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM Discussion.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS MORNING. ITS AXIS IS CENTERED
ALONG 12N17W 11N25W 12N37W 9N43W 8N59W. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES...THERE IS AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 29W-35W.
THIS DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Mecklenburg]

looking very disorganized right now

[KWT]

Its disorganised but there is some convection there and the GFS has been developing something around this region into a pretty powerful system, even if that is really tough to see given its just a mass of convective clumps.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC is expecting a new low pressure center to develop in this area.

[KWT]

Yeah no doubt because of what some of the global models are showing...

As it happens there is increasing convergence close to that area presently which may be helping convection in that general region.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Mecklenburg]

now down to code yellow... maybe convection would refire up this evening...

[Hurricaneman13]

The system doesn't look so good right now. It looks rather disorganized. The models are predicting it to really start to develop after it reaches 40W.

[blp]

We some light WSW winds at this buoy. No West winds yet.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[jhamps10]

2AM two drops this wave from the TWO.